China 2020

Dr Kerry Brown was educated at Cambridge, London, and Leeds Universities. His first book was a study of the Cultural Revolution in Inner Mongolia, China. His second was a series of essays about the impact of China’s transition and rise on the West in the 21st century. He worked for the FCO for ten years, dealing largely with China and Asia, both in London, and China. He has visited every single province and autonomous region in China, and speaks Chinese fluently. He is Director of Strategic China Ltd, the only UK company helping the Chinese non state sector come to the UK, an Associate Fellow on the Asia Programme at Chatham House, an associate at the China Policy Centre Nottingham, a committee member of the British Association of Chinese Studies, and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. He has commented on China in the Far Eastern Economic Review, International Affairs, The World Today, The Liberal, FT China online, and other specialist journals. He has also commented on China on Bloomberg, BBC, CNBC, The Guardian, The Times, and others.

"This stimulating and thought-provoking analysis of what China will be like in ten years' time is particularly valuable for including the views of China experts who do not normally write in the public domain" --John Everard, former British Ambassador to North Korea

• Chapter 1: China in 2020: the leadership and the PartyThe backgroundA learning-oriented Marxist partyIntra-Party democracyThe transitionThe postsChapter 2: China 2020: international relationsThe current parameters of China’s foreign policyA China that can say no but is still unhappyThe elephant in the room: the US will always be number oneThe world beyond the USThe two big problems: Taiwan and North KoreaChina as an international player by 2020International China in the coming decade – the two pathsA Beijing modelThe key factor: what happens withinChapter 3: The Chinese economy in the next decadeForecasting ChinaThe Chinese statePolitics, policy and the stateChina and the global economyThe financial sectorInequality and consumptionDemographyUrbanisationConclusionChapter 4: China’s military in 2020Introduction: robust economyArms embargoesCombat experienceConfidence and changePLA: the armed wing of the PartyThe PLA ground forcesThe People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)The Second Artillery Corps (SAC)The People’s Armed Police (PAP)Cyber warfareStrategic implicationsForce projectionDefence in depthPolicy implicationsConclusionChapter 5: China’s environment in 2020EconomyResource constraintsInternational climate talksEnergy and renewable powerWaste and pollutionFoodBiodiversityPoliticsChapter 6: China’s western regions 2020: their national and global implicationsWhat are China’s western regions?Issues raised by the western regionsDevelopment and Develop the WestEconomic growth and human development in the western regionsWestern regions in global perspectiveChongqing and Chengdu – growth pole(s) for the western regions?Prospects to 2020 and policy implicationsChapter 7: China’s rule of lawChinese and foreignersAsian values and the lawDevelopment of law in China in modern historyThe constitutionElements of the legal system in ChinaThe judiciaryThe legislative systemLaw versus the state in ChinaHuman and civil rightsNew developments influencing law in ChinaChongqing mafia trialsBMW caseConclusionPolicy approachesChapter 8: China’s ‘soft power’ development by 2020‘Soft power’ in Chinese discourseChina’s tools of soft powerBeijing’s objectivesThe domestic priorityChallenges aheadWeaknesses in China’s soft power currencyChina’s soft power in 2020ConclusionIndex