Nuclear Disarmament

Bård Nikolas Vik Steen is the Programme Manager of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Oslo.Olav Njølstad is the Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee and adjunct professor at the University of Oslo.

‘In 1924 Winston Churchill wrote, "Might not a bomb no bigger than an orange be found to possess a secret power...and blast a township at a stroke" - that bomb was developed and used two decades later and we have been debating its dangers and value and trying to control it ever since - Nuclear Disarmament: A Critical Assessment captures the wide-ranging views of this debate as it stands now almost one hundred years later. Join the debate - the next one hundred years depends on it.’-- William J. Perry, 19th US Secretary of Defense'A balanced and thoughtful assessment, by a diverse set of global experts, on the pros and cons of nuclear disarmament. Must reading for these challenging times.'--Scott D. Sagan, Stanford University, USA 'As nuclear risks remain unnecessarily and unacceptably high, the Norwegian Nobel Institute deserves our applause for engaging this timely and important discussion. These thought-provoking essays from nuclear experts with different perspectives is a valuable contribution to addressing one of the great strategic challenges of our time.'--former US Senator Sam Nunn, co-Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative'At a moment when the global arms regime is under pressure, Nuclear Disarmament: A Critical Assessment is a thoughtful compilation from from Steen and Njølstad.' – Henry Kissinger, 56th US Secretary of State

• Introduction Bård Nikolas Vik Steen and Olav Njølstad Section I: Is ‘old school’ nuclear disarmament dead? 1. Is ‘Old School’ Nuclear Disarmament Dead? Lawrence Freedman 2. Was Nuclear Disarmament Ever Alive? Charles L. Glaser Section II: What happens to strategic stability and deterrence at low numbers? 3. Why Nuclear Disarmament and Strategic Stability Are Incompatible Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press 4. Nuclear weapons as a wicked problem in a complex world Patricia M. Lewis Section III: Is a Ban a credible path to Global Zero? 5. The Nuclear Ban Treaty and humanitarian strategies to eliminate nuclear threats Rebecca Johnson 6. Decreeing abolition? The pitfalls of a treaty-based approach for getting to zero James M. Acton 7. Nuclear Ethics and the Ban Treaty Brad Roberts Section IV: What can the incremental approach to nuclear disarmament deliver? 8. What can the incremental approach to nuclear disarmament deliver? Angela Kane 9. Phased Approach to Nuclear Arms Control Alexei Arbatov Section V: Is nuclear disarmament a climate question? 10. Nuclear and Climate Connections: The History, Evolution, and Implications Christine Parthemore 11. Nuclear Disarmament, Nuclear Energy, and Climate Change: Exploring the Linkages Matthew Bunn Section VI: Technology and nuclear weapons – are we asking the wrong questions? 12. Emerging Non-Nuclear Technology and the Future of Global Nuclear Order Andrew Futter with Benjaim Zala Section VII: Will the Current Regimes Remain Fit for Purpose? 13.Dim Hope for Disarmament and Approaching Risk of Build Up Wu Riqiang 14. Forecasting Nuclear Disarmament: Can the NPT Get Us to the Finish Line? William C. Potter Section VIII: Where are we heading? Radical departures from the status quo 15. Radical departures from the status quo and their impacts on Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament: Positive and Negative Philip E. Coyle 16. How Will the Nuclear 21st Century End? Bruno Tertrais