Sue C. Funnell is a director of Performance Improvement, a consulting company, and the former president of the Australasian Evaluation Society.Patricia J. Rogers, PhD, is professor of Public Sector Evaluation at Collaboration for Interdisciplinary Research, Consulting, and Learning in Evaluation, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne, Australia.

“This contribution is a must read for every evaluator, administration or project manager willing to engage in theory-based evaluation or theory-based program planning. It stands out from all the literature on this subject by giving an array of examples of program theory as well as practical advice to conduct evaluation to understand what works for whom and in which conditions.”– “Read for You”, Eureval (Centre for European Expertise and Evaluation)

• Figures, Tables, and Exhibits xAcknowledgments xvThe Authors xviiIntroduction: The Promise and Risks of Using Program Theory xixPart One Key Ideas in Program TheoryChapter 1: The Essence of Program Theory 3Evaluation Without Program Theory 3Evaluation with Program Theory 6Summary 13Exercises 13Chapter 2: Variations of Program Theory over Time 15A Short History of Program Theory 15Terminology in Program Theory 23Key Ideas in Program Theory 30Summary 34Exercises 35Chapter 3: Common Myths and Traps 37Some Common Myths 37Traps to Avoid When Developing and Using Program Theory 41Summary 52Exercises 52Part Two Assessing Your CircumstancesChapter 4: Scoping Intended Uses 55Why Intended Use Matters 55Using Program Theory 58Summary 67Exercises 68Chapter 5: The Nature of the Situation and the Intervention 69Simple, Complicated, and Complex 70Focus 74Governance 80Consistency 82Necessariness 84Sufficiency 85Change Trajectory 88Summary 90Exercise 91Part Three Developing and Representing Program TheoryChapter 6: Processes to Identify or Develop a Program Theory 95Process Options for Developing Program Theory 95Decision 1: Who Should Be Involved in Developing a Program Theory, and How? 97Decision 2: What Is an Appropriate Mix of Approaches for Developing or Eliciting the Program Theory? 101Decision 3: How Might Workshops and Interviews Be Used in Developing Program Theory? 120Decision 4: As Challenges Arise, How Should They Be Addressed? 128Decision 5: How Much Time and Resources Should Be Invested in Developing or Identifying a Program Theory? 141Decision 6: When Is It Time to Revisit a Program Theory? 144Summary 147Exercise 148Chapter 7: Developing a Theory of Change 149Features of a Theory of Change 150Situation Analysis: Understanding the Problem, Its Causes, and Its Consequences 151Focusing and Scoping 163Outcomes Chain 176Summary 195Exercises 196Chapter 8: Developing a Theory of Action 199Preparing the Theory of Action 204Success Criteria for a Theory of Change 204Assumptions About Factors That Affect Successful Achievement of Outcomes 217How to Identify Factors That Are Likely to Affect Outcomes 226Identifying What the Program Does 229Pulling the Theory of Change and the Theory of Action Together in a Matrix 235Summary 237Exercise 240Chapter 9: Representing Program Theory 241Options for Representation 241Representing Complicated Program Theory 251Representing Complex Program Theory 264What Makes a Good Representation of Program Theory 277Should Logic Models Include SMART Measures? 290Summary 291Exercises 292Chapter 10: Critiquing Program Theory 293Criteria for Assessing Internal Validity 296Criteria for External Validation 305Engaging Stakeholders in the Review 312Responding to the Results of a Review of a Program Theory 314Summary 316Exercise 316Part Four Resources for Developing Program TheoryChapter 11: Some Research-Based Theories of Change 319Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior 323Stages of Change Theory 326Empowerment Theory 332Diffusion Theory 335Socioecological Theory 339Network Theory 342Selecting and Using Theories of Change 347Summary 349Exercises 349Chapter 12: Some Common Program Archetypes 351Some Important Program Archetypes 351Advisory, Information, and Education Program Archetype 352Carrots and Sticks Program Archetype 357Case Management Programs Program Archetype 367Community Capacity-Building Program Archetype 370Product or Direct Service Delivery Program Archetype 374Deciding Which Program Archetype Applies to a Program 381Summary 385Exercise 386Chapter 13: Logic Models Resources 387Pipeline Logic Models 387Variations of Outcomes Chain Logic Models 396Technology for Representing Program Theory 399Summary 414Exercise 414Part Five Using Program Theory for Monitoring and EvaluationChapter 14: Developing a Monitoring and Evaluation Plan 417Using Program Theory for Performance Monitoring 418Making Choices About What to Measure Within the Program Theory 425Including Comparisons as Part of the Performance Information System 434Using Program Theory to Plan an Evaluation 438Considerations When Using Program Theory to Design Evaluations of Complicated and Complex Programs 455Summary 466Exercises 467Chapter 15: Causal Inference 469The Need to Be Scientific and Pragmatic 469A Framework for Causal Analysis Using Program Theory 473Congruence 474Counterfactual Comparisons 488Critical Review 495Summary 499Exercises 499Chapter 16: Synthesis and Reporting 501Synthesis and Reporting for a Single Evaluation 501Synthesis and Reporting Across Evaluations 508Summary 516Exercises 516New Frontiers for Program Theory 517References 519Index 537

Sue C. Funnell is a director of Performance Improvement, a consulting company, and the former president of the Australasian Evaluation Society.Patricia J. Rogers, PhD, is professor of Public Sector Evaluation at Collaboration for Interdisciplinary Research, Consulting, and Learning in Evaluation, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne, Australia.

“This contribution is a must read for every evaluator, administration or project manager willing to engage in theory-based evaluation or theory-based program planning. It stands out from all the literature on this subject by giving an array of examples of program theory as well as practical advice to conduct evaluation to understand what works for whom and in which conditions.”– “Read for You”, Eureval (Centre for European Expertise and Evaluation)

• Figures, Tables, and Exhibits xAcknowledgments xvThe Authors xviiIntroduction: The Promise and Risks of Using Program Theory xixPart One Key Ideas in Program TheoryChapter 1: The Essence of Program Theory 3Evaluation Without Program Theory 3Evaluation with Program Theory 6Summary 13Exercises 13Chapter 2: Variations of Program Theory over Time 15A Short History of Program Theory 15Terminology in Program Theory 23Key Ideas in Program Theory 30Summary 34Exercises 35Chapter 3: Common Myths and Traps 37Some Common Myths 37Traps to Avoid When Developing and Using Program Theory 41Summary 52Exercises 52Part Two Assessing Your CircumstancesChapter 4: Scoping Intended Uses 55Why Intended Use Matters 55Using Program Theory 58Summary 67Exercises 68Chapter 5: The Nature of the Situation and the Intervention 69Simple, Complicated, and Complex 70Focus 74Governance 80Consistency 82Necessariness 84Sufficiency 85Change Trajectory 88Summary 90Exercise 91Part Three Developing and Representing Program TheoryChapter 6: Processes to Identify or Develop a Program Theory 95Process Options for Developing Program Theory 95Decision 1: Who Should Be Involved in Developing a Program Theory, and How? 97Decision 2: What Is an Appropriate Mix of Approaches for Developing or Eliciting the Program Theory? 101Decision 3: How Might Workshops and Interviews Be Used in Developing Program Theory? 120Decision 4: As Challenges Arise, How Should They Be Addressed? 128Decision 5: How Much Time and Resources Should Be Invested in Developing or Identifying a Program Theory? 141Decision 6: When Is It Time to Revisit a Program Theory? 144Summary 147Exercise 148Chapter 7: Developing a Theory of Change 149Features of a Theory of Change 150Situation Analysis: Understanding the Problem, Its Causes, and Its Consequences 151Focusing and Scoping 163Outcomes Chain 176Summary 195Exercises 196Chapter 8: Developing a Theory of Action 199Preparing the Theory of Action 204Success Criteria for a Theory of Change 204Assumptions About Factors That Affect Successful Achievement of Outcomes 217How to Identify Factors That Are Likely to Affect Outcomes 226Identifying What the Program Does 229Pulling the Theory of Change and the Theory of Action Together in a Matrix 235Summary 237Exercise 240Chapter 9: Representing Program Theory 241Options for Representation 241Representing Complicated Program Theory 251Representing Complex Program Theory 264What Makes a Good Representation of Program Theory 277Should Logic Models Include SMART Measures? 290Summary 291Exercises 292Chapter 10: Critiquing Program Theory 293Criteria for Assessing Internal Validity 296Criteria for External Validation 305Engaging Stakeholders in the Review 312Responding to the Results of a Review of a Program Theory 314Summary 316Exercise 316Part Four Resources for Developing Program TheoryChapter 11: Some Research-Based Theories of Change 319Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior 323Stages of Change Theory 326Empowerment Theory 332Diffusion Theory 335Socioecological Theory 339Network Theory 342Selecting and Using Theories of Change 347Summary 349Exercises 349Chapter 12: Some Common Program Archetypes 351Some Important Program Archetypes 351Advisory, Information, and Education Program Archetype 352Carrots and Sticks Program Archetype 357Case Management Programs Program Archetype 367Community Capacity-Building Program Archetype 370Product or Direct Service Delivery Program Archetype 374Deciding Which Program Archetype Applies to a Program 381Summary 385Exercise 386Chapter 13: Logic Models Resources 387Pipeline Logic Models 387Variations of Outcomes Chain Logic Models 396Technology for Representing Program Theory 399Summary 414Exercise 414Part Five Using Program Theory for Monitoring and EvaluationChapter 14: Developing a Monitoring and Evaluation Plan 417Using Program Theory for Performance Monitoring 418Making Choices About What to Measure Within the Program Theory 425Including Comparisons as Part of the Performance Information System 434Using Program Theory to Plan an Evaluation 438Considerations When Using Program Theory to Design Evaluations of Complicated and Complex Programs 455Summary 466Exercises 467Chapter 15: Causal Inference 469The Need to Be Scientific and Pragmatic 469A Framework for Causal Analysis Using Program Theory 473Congruence 474Counterfactual Comparisons 488Critical Review 495Summary 499Exercises 499Chapter 16: Synthesis and Reporting 501Synthesis and Reporting for a Single Evaluation 501Synthesis and Reporting Across Evaluations 508Summary 516Exercises 516New Frontiers for Program Theory 517References 519Index 537

Sue C. Funnell is a director of Performance Improvement, a consulting company, and the former president of the Australasian Evaluation Society.Patricia J. Rogers, PhD, is professor of Public Sector Evaluation at Collaboration for Interdisciplinary Research, Consulting, and Learning in Evaluation, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne, Australia.

“This contribution is a must read for every evaluator, administration or project manager willing to engage in theory-based evaluation or theory-based program planning. It stands out from all the literature on this subject by giving an array of examples of program theory as well as practical advice to conduct evaluation to understand what works for whom and in which conditions.”– “Read for You”, Eureval (Centre for European Expertise and Evaluation)

• Figures, Tables, and Exhibits xAcknowledgments xvThe Authors xviiIntroduction: The Promise and Risks of Using Program Theory xixPart One Key Ideas in Program TheoryChapter 1: The Essence of Program Theory 3Evaluation Without Program Theory 3Evaluation with Program Theory 6Summary 13Exercises 13Chapter 2: Variations of Program Theory over Time 15A Short History of Program Theory 15Terminology in Program Theory 23Key Ideas in Program Theory 30Summary 34Exercises 35Chapter 3: Common Myths and Traps 37Some Common Myths 37Traps to Avoid When Developing and Using Program Theory 41Summary 52Exercises 52Part Two Assessing Your CircumstancesChapter 4: Scoping Intended Uses 55Why Intended Use Matters 55Using Program Theory 58Summary 67Exercises 68Chapter 5: The Nature of the Situation and the Intervention 69Simple, Complicated, and Complex 70Focus 74Governance 80Consistency 82Necessariness 84Sufficiency 85Change Trajectory 88Summary 90Exercise 91Part Three Developing and Representing Program TheoryChapter 6: Processes to Identify or Develop a Program Theory 95Process Options for Developing Program Theory 95Decision 1: Who Should Be Involved in Developing a Program Theory, and How? 97Decision 2: What Is an Appropriate Mix of Approaches for Developing or Eliciting the Program Theory? 101Decision 3: How Might Workshops and Interviews Be Used in Developing Program Theory? 120Decision 4: As Challenges Arise, How Should They Be Addressed? 128Decision 5: How Much Time and Resources Should Be Invested in Developing or Identifying a Program Theory? 141Decision 6: When Is It Time to Revisit a Program Theory? 144Summary 147Exercise 148Chapter 7: Developing a Theory of Change 149Features of a Theory of Change 150Situation Analysis: Understanding the Problem, Its Causes, and Its Consequences 151Focusing and Scoping 163Outcomes Chain 176Summary 195Exercises 196Chapter 8: Developing a Theory of Action 199Preparing the Theory of Action 204Success Criteria for a Theory of Change 204Assumptions About Factors That Affect Successful Achievement of Outcomes 217How to Identify Factors That Are Likely to Affect Outcomes 226Identifying What the Program Does 229Pulling the Theory of Change and the Theory of Action Together in a Matrix 235Summary 237Exercise 240Chapter 9: Representing Program Theory 241Options for Representation 241Representing Complicated Program Theory 251Representing Complex Program Theory 264What Makes a Good Representation of Program Theory 277Should Logic Models Include SMART Measures? 290Summary 291Exercises 292Chapter 10: Critiquing Program Theory 293Criteria for Assessing Internal Validity 296Criteria for External Validation 305Engaging Stakeholders in the Review 312Responding to the Results of a Review of a Program Theory 314Summary 316Exercise 316Part Four Resources for Developing Program TheoryChapter 11: Some Research-Based Theories of Change 319Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior 323Stages of Change Theory 326Empowerment Theory 332Diffusion Theory 335Socioecological Theory 339Network Theory 342Selecting and Using Theories of Change 347Summary 349Exercises 349Chapter 12: Some Common Program Archetypes 351Some Important Program Archetypes 351Advisory, Information, and Education Program Archetype 352Carrots and Sticks Program Archetype 357Case Management Programs Program Archetype 367Community Capacity-Building Program Archetype 370Product or Direct Service Delivery Program Archetype 374Deciding Which Program Archetype Applies to a Program 381Summary 385Exercise 386Chapter 13: Logic Models Resources 387Pipeline Logic Models 387Variations of Outcomes Chain Logic Models 396Technology for Representing Program Theory 399Summary 414Exercise 414Part Five Using Program Theory for Monitoring and EvaluationChapter 14: Developing a Monitoring and Evaluation Plan 417Using Program Theory for Performance Monitoring 418Making Choices About What to Measure Within the Program Theory 425Including Comparisons as Part of the Performance Information System 434Using Program Theory to Plan an Evaluation 438Considerations When Using Program Theory to Design Evaluations of Complicated and Complex Programs 455Summary 466Exercises 467Chapter 15: Causal Inference 469The Need to Be Scientific and Pragmatic 469A Framework for Causal Analysis Using Program Theory 473Congruence 474Counterfactual Comparisons 488Critical Review 495Summary 499Exercises 499Chapter 16: Synthesis and Reporting 501Synthesis and Reporting for a Single Evaluation 501Synthesis and Reporting Across Evaluations 508Summary 516Exercises 516New Frontiers for Program Theory 517References 519Index 537