Politics and Uncertainty

Theory, Models and Applications

AvClaudio Cioffi-Revilla

Häftad, Engelska, 1998

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Beskrivning

Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics. It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out, when and how governments collapse, and when and how political cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such complex and fundamental issues.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum:1998-07-16
Mått:152 x 229 x 21 mm
Vikt:530 g
Format:Häftad
Språk:Engelska
Antal sidor:364
Förlag:Cambridge University Press
ISBN:9780521589154

Utforska kategorier

Statsvetenskap och politisk teori inom Samhälle och politik

Recensioner i media

"This is a profound book. It seeks to explore the basic configurations of political reality and expose its inherently uncertain foundations. In this, its central mission, it succeeds. It is also an ambitious book in seeking to lay the foundaitons for both micropolitical and macropolitical analysis. ...Cioffi-Revilla has given us a splendid essay on political uncertainty. He has presented a unique way of systematically decomposing political events into their constituent structures and highlighting the nature of their uncertainty in ways that enrich our understanding of politics." Manus I Midlarsky, American Political Science Review

Innehållsförteckning

Part I. Foundations: 1. Introduction; Part II. Macropolitics: 2. Behavior of political variables; 3. General macropolitical principles; 4. Special macropolitical principles; Part III. Micropolitics: 5. Occurrence of political events; 6. General Micropolitical principles; 7. Special micropolitical principles; Part IV. Conclusions: 8. Synthesis.