Jeffrey T. Grogger is Irving Harris Professor in Urban Policy, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago. Lynn A. Karoly is Senior Economist, RAND Corporation.

It is likely that future scholarship on U.S. welfare reform will take Grogger-Karoly as the starting point, view it as the definitive assessment of the state of the art, and use it as a springboard for future research. Scholars who want to assemble and assess evidence on the effects of policy changes in other policy arenas will want to consult this work as an exemplar of how to do it well.

• List of Figures List of Tables Preface List of Acronyms 1. Introduction Our Approach Organization of the Book 2. Background Brief History of Federal Welfare Policy Policy and Program Changes during the 1990s Welfare-Related Outcomes in the 1990s 3. An Economic Model AFDC and the Standard Economic Model Financial Work Incentives Requirements for Work or Related Activities Time Limits Summarizing the Predictions 4. Methodological Issues Methods of Causal Inference in Studies of Welfare Reform Measuring the Policy Environment Data Sources for Welfare Outcomes Summary of Studies Included in the Analysis 5. Welfare Use and Welfare Payments Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 6. Employment, Labor Supply, and Earnings Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 7. Income and Poverty Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 8. Family Structure Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Marriage Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Marriage Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Childbearing Summary 9. Child Outcomes Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Summary 10. Theory, Evidence, and Policy Trade-offs Summarizing the Empirical Evidence Welfare, Labor Market Behavior, and Income Marriage, Childbearing, and Child Outcomes Welfare Reform as a Bundle What We Don't Know about Welfare Reform Appendix A. Sources for Experimental Study Results Appendix B. Methodology for Summary Figures in Chapter 10 References Index

Jeffrey T. Grogger is Irving Harris Professor in Urban Policy, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago. Lynn A. Karoly is Senior Economist, RAND Corporation.

It is likely that future scholarship on U.S. welfare reform will take Grogger-Karoly as the starting point, view it as the definitive assessment of the state of the art, and use it as a springboard for future research. Scholars who want to assemble and assess evidence on the effects of policy changes in other policy arenas will want to consult this work as an exemplar of how to do it well.

• List of Figures List of Tables Preface List of Acronyms 1. Introduction Our Approach Organization of the Book 2. Background Brief History of Federal Welfare Policy Policy and Program Changes during the 1990s Welfare-Related Outcomes in the 1990s 3. An Economic Model AFDC and the Standard Economic Model Financial Work Incentives Requirements for Work or Related Activities Time Limits Summarizing the Predictions 4. Methodological Issues Methods of Causal Inference in Studies of Welfare Reform Measuring the Policy Environment Data Sources for Welfare Outcomes Summary of Studies Included in the Analysis 5. Welfare Use and Welfare Payments Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 6. Employment, Labor Supply, and Earnings Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 7. Income and Poverty Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 8. Family Structure Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Marriage Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Marriage Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Childbearing Summary 9. Child Outcomes Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Summary 10. Theory, Evidence, and Policy Trade-offs Summarizing the Empirical Evidence Welfare, Labor Market Behavior, and Income Marriage, Childbearing, and Child Outcomes Welfare Reform as a Bundle What We Don't Know about Welfare Reform Appendix A. Sources for Experimental Study Results Appendix B. Methodology for Summary Figures in Chapter 10 References Index

Jeffrey T. Grogger is Irving Harris Professor in Urban Policy, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago. Lynn A. Karoly is Senior Economist, RAND Corporation.

It is likely that future scholarship on U.S. welfare reform will take Grogger-Karoly as the starting point, view it as the definitive assessment of the state of the art, and use it as a springboard for future research. Scholars who want to assemble and assess evidence on the effects of policy changes in other policy arenas will want to consult this work as an exemplar of how to do it well.

• List of Figures List of Tables Preface List of Acronyms 1. Introduction Our Approach Organization of the Book 2. Background Brief History of Federal Welfare Policy Policy and Program Changes during the 1990s Welfare-Related Outcomes in the 1990s 3. An Economic Model AFDC and the Standard Economic Model Financial Work Incentives Requirements for Work or Related Activities Time Limits Summarizing the Predictions 4. Methodological Issues Methods of Causal Inference in Studies of Welfare Reform Measuring the Policy Environment Data Sources for Welfare Outcomes Summary of Studies Included in the Analysis 5. Welfare Use and Welfare Payments Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 6. Employment, Labor Supply, and Earnings Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 7. Income and Poverty Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary 8. Family Structure Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Marriage Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Marriage Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Childbearing Summary 9. Child Outcomes Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Summary 10. Theory, Evidence, and Policy Trade-offs Summarizing the Empirical Evidence Welfare, Labor Market Behavior, and Income Marriage, Childbearing, and Child Outcomes Welfare Reform as a Bundle What We Don't Know about Welfare Reform Appendix A. Sources for Experimental Study Results Appendix B. Methodology for Summary Figures in Chapter 10 References Index