Robert Jervis is the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University. His books include Perception and Misperception in International Politics and System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (both Princeton).

"These essays make an invaluable contribution to understanding 'how statesmen think.' The book is strongly recommended for students and researchers in international relations."

• Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 I Political Psychology 13 1 Understanding Beliefs 15 2 The Drunkard's Search 40 II Heuristics and Biases 61 3 Representativeness, Foreign Policy Judgments, and Theory-Driven Perceptions 63 4 Prospect Theory: The Political Implications of Loss Aversion 85 III Political Psychology And International Relations Theory 105 5 Signaling and Perception: Projecting Images and Drawing Inferences 107 6 Political Psychology Research and Theory: Bridges and Barriers 125 7 Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash 148 8 Identity and the Cold War 169 IV Psychology And National Security 189 9 Deterrence and Perception 191 10 Psychology and Crisis Stability 216 11 Domino Beliefs 234 12 Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War 261 Index 281

Robert Jervis is the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University. His books include Perception and Misperception in International Politics and System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (both Princeton).

"These essays make an invaluable contribution to understanding 'how statesmen think.' The book is strongly recommended for students and researchers in international relations."

• Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 I Political Psychology 13 1 Understanding Beliefs 15 2 The Drunkard's Search 40 II Heuristics and Biases 61 3 Representativeness, Foreign Policy Judgments, and Theory-Driven Perceptions 63 4 Prospect Theory: The Political Implications of Loss Aversion 85 III Political Psychology And International Relations Theory 105 5 Signaling and Perception: Projecting Images and Drawing Inferences 107 6 Political Psychology Research and Theory: Bridges and Barriers 125 7 Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash 148 8 Identity and the Cold War 169 IV Psychology And National Security 189 9 Deterrence and Perception 191 10 Psychology and Crisis Stability 216 11 Domino Beliefs 234 12 Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War 261 Index 281

Robert Jervis is the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University. His books include Perception and Misperception in International Politics and System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (both Princeton).

"These essays make an invaluable contribution to understanding 'how statesmen think.' The book is strongly recommended for students and researchers in international relations."

• Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 I Political Psychology 13 1 Understanding Beliefs 15 2 The Drunkard's Search 40 II Heuristics and Biases 61 3 Representativeness, Foreign Policy Judgments, and Theory-Driven Perceptions 63 4 Prospect Theory: The Political Implications of Loss Aversion 85 III Political Psychology And International Relations Theory 105 5 Signaling and Perception: Projecting Images and Drawing Inferences 107 6 Political Psychology Research and Theory: Bridges and Barriers 125 7 Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash 148 8 Identity and the Cold War 169 IV Psychology And National Security 189 9 Deterrence and Perception 191 10 Psychology and Crisis Stability 216 11 Domino Beliefs 234 12 Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War 261 Index 281