End of Growth

Richard Heinberg: is the author of nine previous books including The Party’s Over, Peak Everything, and Blackout. He is a Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, a think tank helping chart humanity’s transition from the brief, waning reign of fossil-fueled megatechnology to the dawning era of re-adaptation to nature’s limits. Widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil educators, Richard lectures widely and appears on radio, television, and in films. With a wry, unflinching approach, he explains the trends that shape our world.

"Heinberg draws in the big three drivers of inevitable crisis—resource constraints, environmental impacts, and financial system overload—and explains why they are not individual challenges but one integrated systemic problem. By time you finish this book, you will have come to two conclusions. First, we are not facing a recession—this is the end of economic growth. Second, this is not our children's problem—it is ours. It's time to get ready, and reading this book is the place to start."— Paul Gilding, author, The Great Disruption,Former head of Greenpeace International"Richard has rung the bell on the limits to growth. This is real. The consequences for economics, finance, and our way of life in the decades ahead will be greater than the consequences of the industrial revolution were for our recent ancestors. Our coming shift from quantity of consumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation—frightening at times, but ultimately freeing."— John Fullerton, President and Founder, Capital Institute"Why have mainstream economists ignored environmental limits for so long? If Heinberg is right, they will have a lot of explaining to do. The end of conventional economic growth would be a shattering turn of events—but the book makes a persuasive case that this is indeed what we are seeing."— Lester Brown, Founder, Earth Policy Institute and author, World on the Edge"Heinberg shows how peak oil, peak water, peak food, etc. lead not only to the end of growth, and also to the beginning of a new era of progress without growth."— Herman E. Daly, Professor Emeritus, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland"The End of Growth offers a comprehensive, timely and persuasive analysis of the reality of ecological limits as they relate to economic growth. Filled with facts and figures and very readable, the book makes a rational case while paying attention to nuance and counterarguments. A must-read for anyone who depends upon economic growth, which means all of us."— Leslie E. Christian, CFA, President and CEO Portfolio 21 Investments"Heinberg has masterfully summarized and updated the case against economics, and its fraudulent scorecard—GDP. He explains why conventional economic growth is ending now, and why growth of human populations and material consumption will follow suit. Yet we all can still grow in wisdom and continue expanding the knowledge of our universe, while growing greener technologies capturing the sun's daily free photon flow as we transition to the Solar Age."— Hazel Henderson, author, The Politics of the Solar Age (1981) and other books, President of Ethical Markets Media (USA and Brazil) and its Green Transition Scoreboard®"Dig into this book! It is crammed full of ideas, information and perspective on where our troubled world is headed—a Baedeker for the perplexed, and that's most of us."— James Gustave Speth, author of The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability"Read this book and have the light switched on."— Caroline Lucas, Member of Parliament (UK)"Richard Heinberg is not one to shy away from difficult topics and The End of Growth is no exception. Heinberg explains today's environmental and economic realities—which are scary to face. But believe me, not facing them is a whole lot scarier. And as Heinberg explains, the sooner we have this critically needed conversation about how to live in a healthy, fair, and meaningful way on this one planet we have, the better it will be for all of us."—Annie Leonard, author, The Story of Stuff"A vitally important book—it helps clear away many of the mistaken assumptions that clutter our heads when we think about 'obvious' and 'natural' facts of our economic life. You really need to read it if you want to understand the next few crucial years."— Bill McKibben, author of Deep Economy and Eaarth"From all my research, I'm come to appreciate how much the expectation of unending growth dominates public policy — and how ephemeral that goal is likely to prove. Until now, however, no one has had the foresight to address this critical topic. Congratulations to Richard Heinberg for providing such a lucid account of the natural limits to growth and the urgent need for a new economic model."— Michael Klare, author, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet

• Acknowledgments Introduction: The New Normal Why Is Growth Ending? The End of Growth Should Come As No Surprise Why Is Growth So Important? But Isn't Growth Normal? The Simple Math of Compounded Growth The Peak Oil Scenario From Scary Theory to Scarier Reality Bursting Bubbles What Comes After Growth? A Guide to the Book 1. The Great Balloon Race Economic History in Ten Minutes Economics for the Hurried 20th-Century Economics Business Cycles, Interest Rates, and Central Banks Mad Money I Owe You 2. The Sound of Air Escaping Houses of Cards Setting the Stage: 1970 to 2001 Shadow Banks and the Housing Bubble What Goes UpThe Mother of All Manias Limits to Debt All Loaned Up and Nowhere to Go Stimulus Duds, Bailout Blanks Actions by Other Nations and Their Central Banks After All the Arrows have Flown Deflation or Inflation? The Bridge to Nowhere 3. Earth's Limits: Why Growth Won't Return Oil Other Energy Sources How Markets May Respond to Resource Scarcity: The Goldilocks Syndrome Water Food Metals and Other Minerals Climate Change, Pollution, Accidents, Environmental Decline, and Natural Disasters 4. Won't Innovation, Substitution, and Efficiency Keep Us Growing? Substitutes Forever Energy Efficiency to the Rescue Business Development: The Cavalry's on the Way Moore's or Murphy's Law? Specialization and Globalization: Genies at Our Command 5. Shrinking Pie: Competition and Relative Growth in a Finite World The China Bubble Currency Wars Post-Growth Geopolitics Population Stress: Old vs. Young on a Full Planet The End of "Development"? The Post-Growth Struggle Between Rich and Poor 6. Managing Contraction, Redefining Progress The Default Scenario Haircuts for All...or Free Money? Post-Growth Money Post-Growth Economics Gross National Happiness Our Problems Are Resolvable In Principle 7. Life After Growth Setting Priorities Transition Towns Common Security Clubs Putting the New Economy on the Map What Might a Sustainable Society Look Like? Perspective Notes Index About the Author