David P. Farrington obtained a Ph.D. in experimental psychology from Cambridge University. On the staff of the Cambridge University Institute of Criminology since 1969, he is currently a Lecturer in Criminology at Cambridge University. Farrington published seven books and more than 60 papers on criminological and psychological topics. Chairman of the Division of Criminological and Legal Psychology of the British Psychological Society, he is also a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences Panel on Criminal Career Research. In 1984 he received the Sellin-Glueck Award of the American Society of Criminology. Roger Tarling graduated in economics and social statistics at London University and obtained the Diploma in Statistics awarded by the Institute of Statisticians. He has been on the staff of the Home Office Research and Planning Unit since 1972 and is currently a Principal Research Officer. Currently a member of the Governing Council of the Institute of Statisticians, he has published six books and research monographs and more than 30 articles on criminological topics.

"The selections are excellent, giving a good overview and a diversity of methods used and compared. The volume thus gives a good portrayal of the 'present state of the art.' It includes thoughtful and useful discussions of pertinent ethical issues as well as scientific ones, sound scholarship, generally careful writing, and the conclusions are well supported by the evidence presented." — Don M. Gottfredson

• Preface List of Contributors I. Introductory Section One. Criminological Prediction: An IntroductionDavid P. Farrington and Roger Tarling Two. The Politics of PredictionLeslie T. Wilkins II. Parole Prediction Three. Screening for Risk among Parolees: Policy, Practice, and MethodStephen D. Gottfredson and Don M. Gottfredson Four. Predicting Failure on ParoleWilliam L. Wilbanks III. Custodial Prediction Five. Predicting Recidivism Using Institutional MeasuresGillian Hill Six. Predicting Absconding from Young Offender InstitutionsDavid Thornton and Sheila Speirs Seven. Prediction and Treatment of Self-Injury by Female Young OffendersJ. Eric Cullen IV. Other Criminological Applications Eight. Predicting Self-Reported and Official DelinquencyDavid P. Farrington Nine. Predicting Outcomes of Mentally Disordered and Dangerous OffendersTony Black and Penny Spinks Ten. Modelling a Criminal Justice SystemR. Gordon Cassidy V. Statistical Methodology Eleven. Statistical Methods in Criminological PredictionRoger Tarling and John A. Perry Twelve. Prediction Equations, Statistical Analysis, and ShrinkageJohn B. Copas VI. Conclusions Thirteen. Criminological Prediction: The Way ForwardDavid P. Farrington and Roger Tarling Author Index Subject Index