Andrew Koleros is a Principal Researcher at Mathematica with 20 years of experience in designing and delivering mixed-methods evaluations and programme monitoring, evaluation and learning systems for both small-scale and largescale social and economic development projects. He brings particular expertise in using theory-based approaches that integrate complexity concepts and systems thinking into programme and evaluation design processes to address complex societal problems from safe and affordable housing to youth employment to advancing health equity. He obtained his master’s in public health from the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. He has published on his work in designing theory-based evaluation approaches in the American Journal of Evaluation, the Canadian Journal of Programme Evaluation and in multiple practitioner settings. He is a member of the American Evaluation Association, the European Evaluation Society, and the Canadian Evaluation Society.Marie-Hélène Adrien is a senior evaluation practitioner and researcher with 35 years of experience in evaluating the performance of programmes and institutions financed by bilateral and multilateral agencies and philanthropies around the globe. Dr. Adrien is a former CEO of the consulting firm Universalia Management Group in Montreal and was the President of the International Development Evaluation Association (IDEAS), as well as a professor of practice at the International Development Studies Program of McGill University.Tony Tyrrell is an independent consultant with more than 25 years’ experience in evaluation and related fields. Tony’s early experience in evaluation was with the European Social Fund Evaluation Unit where he produced influential evaluations on various subjects including early school leaving and local development. He later worked with a number of private consulting firms on strategic, policy, and programme evaluation and on performance management. More recently he spent six years with the Independent Evaluation Group at the World Bank Group (WBG). Tony now works as an independent consultant with various clients including the WBG, the Asian Development Bank, various governments, and private consultancies. He holds an MSc in Management (Organisation Behavior), and an MA in English Literature. Tony was co-editor (with Burt Perrin) of another book in this series, Changing Bureaucracies (2021).

• ForewordEmily Gates and Kathy Chau RohnPart 1. Introduction Andrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien, and Tony TyrrellPart 2. Considerations in Using Theories of Change to Establish Causality2. Theories of Change between Critical Thinking and Social PracticesPeter Dahler-Larsen 3. Setting the Stage for Contribution ClaimsThomas Delahais 4. Using Theories of Change to Assess Causality in a Policy Change ContextCarlisle Levine 5. How Deep is your Ontology? How a Little Ontological Thinking Can Strengthen How Evaluators Use Theories of ChangeTom Ling 6. My Perspective on Theories of ChangeMarkus Palenberg Part 3. Using Theories of Change to Understand Wider Social Change Processes 7. Theory of Change for Sustainable BusinessJens Anderson 8. Upcycling TOC for Impact Investment and Early-Stage VenturesPenny Hawkins and Zazie Tolmer 9. Strategy-level Theories of Change Require a Focus on Systems Change: An Actor-Based Approach can HelpAndrew Koleros 10. Evaluating the use of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data (ai/bd) in Policy Making: Unpacking Black-Boxes and Testing White-BoxesFrans Leeuw 11. Developing, Representing and Using Theories of Change for Interventions in Complex Systems Patricia RogersPart 4. Adapting Theories of Change for Use in Broader Public Policy Contexts 12. Theories of Change in Evaluation of Local Government ReformsKurt Houlberg and Olaf Rieper 13. Theories-of-Change and the Evaluation of Sustainable Impact: Moving beyond Simplicity in Development CooperationPeter van der Knapp 14. Use of Theory of Change as a Management Tool for Government Multi-year Development Plans: The Case of Brazil’s Federal PPALycia Lima and Marina Lafer 15. Theories of Change in Complex Macro Public Sector Planning Settings in Africa: How Useful are They?Candice Morkel 16. Simple Heuristics for Drafting Theories of Change: A Case of Behavioral Insights into Food WasteKarol Olejniczak and Igor Lyubashenko Part 5. Applying Theories of Change Approaches for Multiple Purposes 17. The Law of the Instrument: Would you Rather be a Theory or a Nail?Gordon Freer 18. 3ie: A ‘Balloon-Squeezing’ Approach to the Theory of ChangeMarie Gaarder 19. Integrating Theories of Change in Program Management and DeliveryMark Oldenbeuving 20. Theories of Change: Who Needs Them? or: What Evaluators Can Learn from OperaBurt Perrin 21. How to Ensure No-one Uses Your Theory of Change: Lessons from the Front Lines of ToC Facilitation and Possibilities for RenewalMary Tangelder22. Why do we have ToCs of the Program Intervention but not of the Intervention that is the Evaluation?Bob WilliamsPart 6. Developing Theories of Change Reflective of Multiple Stakeholder Perspectives 23. Participatory Explorations of Alternative Futures: Using Narrative Theories of ChangeRick Davies, Lara Mani and Tom Hobson 24. Constructing a Living Theory of Change in Fragile Contexts: Grounded on Context, Problem and EvidenceHur Hassnain 25. Flipping the Script on Program Theories: Advancing Towards Transformative Theories of ChangeSebastian Lemire 26. Theory Based Evaluation Approaches Can Enable Online Project SuccessSteve Montague, Heloise Emdon and Eva Grabinski 27. Theory of Change as a Tool for Tracking Intensive Family Program Developments in WhitetownJane Mulcahey, Catherine Naughton and Sean Redmond ConclusionsAndrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien, and Tony Tyrrell

Andrew Koleros is a Principal Researcher at Mathematica with 20 years of experience in designing and delivering mixed-methods evaluations and programme monitoring, evaluation and learning systems for both small-scale and largescale social and economic development projects. He brings particular expertise in using theory-based approaches that integrate complexity concepts and systems thinking into programme and evaluation design processes to address complex societal problems from safe and affordable housing to youth employment to advancing health equity. He obtained his master’s in public health from the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. He has published on his work in designing theory-based evaluation approaches in the American Journal of Evaluation, the Canadian Journal of Programme Evaluation and in multiple practitioner settings. He is a member of the American Evaluation Association, the European Evaluation Society, and the Canadian Evaluation Society.Marie-Hélène Adrien is a senior evaluation practitioner and researcher with 35 years of experience in evaluating the performance of programmes and institutions financed by bilateral and multilateral agencies and philanthropies around the globe. Dr. Adrien is a former CEO of the consulting firm Universalia Management Group in Montreal and was the President of the International Development Evaluation Association (IDEAS), as well as a professor of practice at the International Development Studies Program of McGill University.Tony Tyrrell is an independent consultant with more than 25 years’ experience in evaluation and related fields. Tony’s early experience in evaluation was with the European Social Fund Evaluation Unit where he produced influential evaluations on various subjects including early school leaving and local development. He later worked with a number of private consulting firms on strategic, policy, and programme evaluation and on performance management. More recently he spent six years with the Independent Evaluation Group at the World Bank Group (WBG). Tony now works as an independent consultant with various clients including the WBG, the Asian Development Bank, various governments, and private consultancies. He holds an MSc in Management (Organisation Behavior), and an MA in English Literature. Tony was co-editor (with Burt Perrin) of another book in this series, Changing Bureaucracies (2021).

• ForewordEmily Gates and Kathy Chau RohnPart 1. Introduction Andrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien, and Tony TyrrellPart 2. Considerations in Using Theories of Change to Establish Causality2. Theories of Change between Critical Thinking and Social PracticesPeter Dahler-Larsen 3. Setting the Stage for Contribution ClaimsThomas Delahais 4. Using Theories of Change to Assess Causality in a Policy Change ContextCarlisle Levine 5. How Deep is your Ontology? How a Little Ontological Thinking Can Strengthen How Evaluators Use Theories of ChangeTom Ling 6. My Perspective on Theories of ChangeMarkus Palenberg Part 3. Using Theories of Change to Understand Wider Social Change Processes 7. Theory of Change for Sustainable BusinessJens Anderson 8. Upcycling TOC for Impact Investment and Early-Stage VenturesPenny Hawkins and Zazie Tolmer 9. Strategy-level Theories of Change Require a Focus on Systems Change: An Actor-Based Approach can HelpAndrew Koleros 10. Evaluating the use of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data (ai/bd) in Policy Making: Unpacking Black-Boxes and Testing White-BoxesFrans Leeuw 11. Developing, Representing and Using Theories of Change for Interventions in Complex Systems Patricia RogersPart 4. Adapting Theories of Change for Use in Broader Public Policy Contexts 12. Theories of Change in Evaluation of Local Government ReformsKurt Houlberg and Olaf Rieper 13. Theories-of-Change and the Evaluation of Sustainable Impact: Moving beyond Simplicity in Development CooperationPeter van der Knapp 14. Use of Theory of Change as a Management Tool for Government Multi-year Development Plans: The Case of Brazil’s Federal PPALycia Lima and Marina Lafer 15. Theories of Change in Complex Macro Public Sector Planning Settings in Africa: How Useful are They?Candice Morkel 16. Simple Heuristics for Drafting Theories of Change: A Case of Behavioral Insights into Food WasteKarol Olejniczak and Igor Lyubashenko Part 5. Applying Theories of Change Approaches for Multiple Purposes 17. The Law of the Instrument: Would you Rather be a Theory or a Nail?Gordon Freer 18. 3ie: A ‘Balloon-Squeezing’ Approach to the Theory of ChangeMarie Gaarder 19. Integrating Theories of Change in Program Management and DeliveryMark Oldenbeuving 20. Theories of Change: Who Needs Them? or: What Evaluators Can Learn from OperaBurt Perrin 21. How to Ensure No-one Uses Your Theory of Change: Lessons from the Front Lines of ToC Facilitation and Possibilities for RenewalMary Tangelder22. Why do we have ToCs of the Program Intervention but not of the Intervention that is the Evaluation?Bob WilliamsPart 6. Developing Theories of Change Reflective of Multiple Stakeholder Perspectives 23. Participatory Explorations of Alternative Futures: Using Narrative Theories of ChangeRick Davies, Lara Mani and Tom Hobson 24. Constructing a Living Theory of Change in Fragile Contexts: Grounded on Context, Problem and EvidenceHur Hassnain 25. Flipping the Script on Program Theories: Advancing Towards Transformative Theories of ChangeSebastian Lemire 26. Theory Based Evaluation Approaches Can Enable Online Project SuccessSteve Montague, Heloise Emdon and Eva Grabinski 27. Theory of Change as a Tool for Tracking Intensive Family Program Developments in WhitetownJane Mulcahey, Catherine Naughton and Sean Redmond ConclusionsAndrew Koleros, Marie-Hélène Adrien, and Tony Tyrrell