Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan

Bill Emmott is Chairman of the IISS Trustees and an independent writer and consultant. He spent 26 years at The Economist, which he joined in 1980, working as a correspondent and editor in Brussels, Tokyo and London, on subjects ranging from politics to finance, economics and business. In 1993, he was appointed editor-in-chief, a post he held for 13 years before stepping down in 2006.He is Senior Adviser, Geopolitics for Montrose Associates, Chair of the Japan Society of the UK, an Ushioda Fellow of Tokyo College, University of Tokyo, Chair of the International Trade Institute, a trustee of the Chester Beatty Library, and a member of the Comitato Scientifico of the Centro Einaudi in Turin. He writes for La Stampa in Italy, Nikkei Business and the Mainichi Shimbun in Japan, and occasionally for the Financial Times. He is the author of numerous books on Japan, Asia, Italy and the West, his latest being The Fate of the West (Profile, 2017) and Japan’s Far More Female Future: Increasing Gender Equality and Reducing Workplace Insecurity Will Make Japan Stronger (Oxford University Press, 2020).

‘Will China and the US go to war over Taiwan? How can war be deterred? Bill Emmott gives the clearest answers that I have read to these crucial questions. His work is both comprehensive and readable, as befits a former editor of The Economist.’Joseph S. Nye, former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School and author of the memoir A Life in the American Century‘Bill Emmott’s insightful exploration illuminates the precarious balance between power and peace in the Indo-Pacific, a strategic region where Europe’s future is also at stake. Emmott is one of our best experts in this area and offers a compelling narrative that combines historical depth with contemporary urgency. This book stands as a crucial guide for navigating the intricate interplay of military strategy, diplomacy and the unyielding quest for stability in a region at the heart of global security.’Florence Parly, former Minister of the Armed Forces, France (2017–22)‘Bill Emmott has done a masterly job of highlighting the necessity of a sophisticated and comprehensive deterrence strategy in the Indo-Pacific given the real dangers of Chinese military coercion against Taiwan. His work is particularly profound in warning that we have downplayed the taboo topic of nuclear escalation in a Taiwan Strait crisis even though a US–China conflict would be the first in history between nuclear great powers.’ Dennis Wilder, former Deputy Assistant Director for East Asia and the Pacific, CIA (2015–16); Assistant Professor of the Practice and Senior Fellow for the Initiative for US–China Dialogue on Global Issues, Georgetown University‘Bill Emmott is correct to describe our task as making war over Taiwan “inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable”. Japan both can and is determined to contribute to this goal by strengthening regional deterrence efforts.’Ishii Masafumi, former Director for Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan; former Japanese Ambassador to Indonesia

• AuthorAcknowledgementsMap 1: Taiwan and its surrounding regionIntroduction: Danger, hiding in plain sightChapter One: Why Indo-Pacific deterrence mattersWhy the stakes in Taiwan are so highThe conflict to be deterredChapter Two: Deterrence lessons from UkraineEight lessons from UkraineSpecific implications for ChinaSpecific implications for TaiwanSpecific implications for the United StatesChapter Three: Yardsticks for deterrenceA world in fluxRationality without MADnessAn unstable status quoYardsticks for Indo-Pacific deterrenceChapter Four: Consistent America, inconstant AmericaPolitical will: consistency and clarity of deterrence messagesMilitary capability and coalition credibilityThe narrative yardstickChapter Five: Taiwan and its predicamentMilitary resilienceCivil resilienceNarrative clarityChapter Six: Coercive China, deterrent ChinaDeterring an interventionControlling the nuclear riskControlling the narrativeChapter Seven: Allies and partners: the role of JapanJapan, from self-defence to constrained deterrenceConstrained but speedy?Many unanswered questionsChapter Eight: The Philippines, Australia and other partnersThe Philippines as an unsinkable logistics centreAustralia: far away but now committedOther allies and bystanders, near and farASEAN non-centralityLimits to the ASEAN wayDreaming of a more balanced regionConclusion: Nostalgic for Cold War realismNeeded: the good aspect of Cold War diplomacyNotesIndex