Philippine Economy Towards 2050

Jesus Felipe is Distinguished Full Professor, Research Fellow, and Dr. Liu Ta-Jen Distinguished Professorial Chair in Business and Economics at the Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, De La Salle University, Philippines.Mariel Monica Sauler is Associate Professor at the Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, De La Salle University, Philippines.Christopher Cabuay is Associate Professor at the Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, De La Salle University, Philippines.Alellie Sobreviñas is Associate Professor at the Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, De La Salle University, Philippines.Susan Kurdli is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science and Development Studies, De La Salle University, Philippines.Julián Pérez is Professor at the Department of Applied Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain.Eva Marie Aragones is Research Assistant and PhD student at the Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, De La Salle University, Philippines.Gerardo Largoza is Associate Professor at the Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics, De La Salle University, Philippines.

“The fundamentals of the Philippine economy, allege our economic managers, remain strong. If this were so, why the poverty? This important volume shows the lack of economic imagination that bedevils Philippine policymakers. And it offers a stark warning: more of the same policies means more of the same results.” Lisandro E. Claudio, Associate Professor, Department of South and Southeast Asian Studies, and Chair, Center for Southeast Asia Studies, Berkeley University, USA“The Philippines has been left behind over the last few decades relative to its close East Asian neighbors as a result of a flawed economic development strategy. The government, under constant pressure from multilateral agencies such as the IMF to pursue fiscal austerity, has failed to pursue a high productivity industrial strategy based on manufacturing. Instead, it has overseen a burgeoning service sector which has resulted in low-paid and low productivity employment. Part of this problem has been the dominance of orthodox macroeconomic thinking that has constrained the government's capacity to use fiscal policy to build public goods and infrastructure that would crowd in productive private investment. The Philippines suffers from massive underinvestment because of the unwillingness to use fiscal deficits to promote growth. This book is a very valuable contribution because it correctly frames the problems that the nation faces and provides viable and sensible solutions to take the Philippines forward. It is a rare voice in an environment where the orthodox macroeconomic consensus creates a cone of silence and a climate of denial.” William Mitchell, Professor of Economics, Centre of Full Employment and Equity University of Newcastle, Australia“Unlike South Korea, the Philippines failed to implement a successful land reform capable of making meritocracy credible, nor did it pursue a coordinated strategy of human resource development aligned with export-oriented industrialization. This book examines the Philippines’ disappointing economic performance since the mid-1970s, characterized by modest growth with limited structural transformation, and explores how the country can address innovation, coordination, and governance challenges going forward. It is essential reading for those interested in the Philippines and in comparative Asian development.” Wonhyuk Lim, Professor, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Korea

• Foreword (Arlene Inocencio) Foreword (Raul Fabella) Preface 1. Introduction and Overview of the Book 2. A Brief Overview of the Economic History of the Philippines 3. A Primer on Growth: Facts, Constraints, and Engines 4. The Structure of the Philippine Economy 5. Philippine Development Plans: Development Misunderstandings 6. Why has Philippine Progress Been Slow? 7. Why has Philippine Progress Been Slow? Failed Industrialization Programs 8. Innovation, Firms, Capabilities, and Modern Industrial Policy 9. Why is the Philippine State Weak? 10. Employment and Education in the Philippines: Misconceptions and Realities 11. The Fiscal Deficit, the National Debt, and Monetary Reality: Old Habits Die Hard 12. The Philippine Economy Toward 2050: Aspirations and Reality 13. Forecasting Employment and Educational Needs 14. Poverty and the Cost of a Decent Basket 15. The Philippine Economy Toward 2050: Final Thoughts