Handbook of Decision Analysis

GREGORY S. PARNELL, PhD, is Professor of Systems Engine-ering at the United States Military Academy at West Point and Executive Principal Analyst with Innovative Decisions, Inc.TERRY A. BRESNICK, MBA, is Cofounder of Innovative Decisions, Inc. and President of Innovative Decision Analysis, Inc.STEVEN N. TANI, PhD, is Partner and Fellow of Strategic Decisions Group.ERIC R. JOHNSON, PhD, is Associate Director at Bristol-Myers Squibb.

• List of Figures ixList of Tables xiiiForeword xvPreface xxiAcknowledgments xxvAbout the Authors xxviiAcronyms xxxi1 Introduction to Decision Analysis 1Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick2 Decision-Making Challenges 22Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell3 Foundations of Decision Analysis 46Gregory S. Parnell and Steven N. Tani4 Decision Analysis Soft Skills 68Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell5 Use the Appropriate Decision Process 92Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell6 Frame the Decision Opportunity 110Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell7 Craft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures 127Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, and Eric R. Johnson8 Design Creative Alternatives 149Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell9 Perform Deterministic Analysis and Develop Insights 166Eric R. Johnson, Gregory S. Parnell, and Steven N. Tani10 Quantify Uncertainty 227Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani11 Perform Probabilistic Analysis and Identify Insights 248Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani12 Portfolio Resource Allocation 291Terry A. Bresnick, Eric R. Johnson, and Gregory S. Parnell13 Communicating with Decision Makers and Stakeholders 320Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick14 Enable Decision Implementation 340Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell15 Summary of Major Themes 351Gregory S. ParnellAppendix A: Probability Theory 362Steven N. TaniAppendix B: Influence Diagrams 374Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. ParnellAppendix C: Decision Conferencing 381Terry A. BresnickIndex 392