Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Dongmei Chen, PhD, is Associate Professor in the Department of Geography and Director of the Laboratory for Geographic Information and Spatial Analysis at Queen’s University, Canada. Bernard Moulin, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering at Laval University, Canada. Jianhong Wu, PhD, is Canada Research Chair and University Distinguished Research Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Director of the Center for Disease Modeling at York University, Canada.

• Foreword ixNicholas ChrismanAcknowledgements xiEditors xiiiContributors xvPART I OVERVIEW1 Introduction to Analyzing and Modeling Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Infectious Diseases 3Dongmei Chen, Bernard Moulin, and Jianhong Wu2 Modeling the Spread of Infectious Diseases: A Review 19Dongmei ChenPART II MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES3 West Nile Virus: A Narrative from Bioinformatics and Mathematical Modeling Studies 45U.S.N. Murty, Amit K. Banerjee, and Jianhong Wu4 West Nile Virus Risk Assessment and Forecasting Using Statistical and Dynamical Models 77Ahmed Abdelrazec, Yurong Cao, Xin Gao, Paul Proctor, Hui Zheng, and Huaiping Zhu5 Using Mathematical Modeling to Integrate Disease Surveillance and Global Air Transportation Data 97Julien Arino and Kamran Khan6 Malaria Models with Spatial Effects 109Daozhou Gao and Shigui Ruan7 Avian Influenza Spread and Transmission Dynamics 137Lydia Bourouiba, Stephen Gourley, Rongsong Liu, John Takekawa, and Jianhong WuPART III SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND STATISTICAL MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES8 Analyzing the Potential Impact of Bird Migration on the Global Spread of H5N1 Avian Influenza (2007–2011) Using Spatiotemporal Mapping Methods 163Heather Richardson and Dongmei Chen9 Cloud Computing–Enabled Cluster Detection Using a Flexibly Shaped Scan Statistic for Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance 177Paul Belanger and Kieran Moore10 Mapping the Distribution of Malaria: Current Approaches and Future Directions 189Leah R. Johnson, Kevin D. Lafferty, Amy McNally, Erin Mordecai, Krijn P. Paaijmans, Samraat Pawar, and Sadie J. Ryan11 Statistical Modeling of Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Transmission 211Rob Deardon, Xuan Fang, and Grace P.S. Kwong12 Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis in China: Bayesian-Based Geostatistical Analysis 233Zhi-Jie Zhang13 Spatial Analysis and Statistical Modeling of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area 247Frank Wen, Dongmei Chen, and Anna Majury14 West Nile Virus Mosquito Abundance Modeling Using Nonstationary Spatiotemporal Geostatistics 263Eun-Hye Yoo, Dongmei Chen, and Curtis Russel15 Spatial Pattern Analysis of Multivariate Disease Data 283Cindy X. Feng and Charmaine B. DeanPART IV GEOSIMULATION AND TOOLS FOR ANALYZING AND SIMULATING SPREADS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES16 The ZoonosisMAGS Project (Part 1): Population-Based Geosimulation of Zoonoses in an Informed Virtual Geographic Environment 299Bernard Moulin, Mondher Bouden, and Daniel Navarro17 ZoonosisMAGS Project (Part 2): Complementarity of a Rapid-Prototyping Tool and of a Full-Scale Geosimulator for Population-Based Geosimulation of Zoonoses 341Bernard Moulin, Daniel Navarro, Dominic Marcotte, Said Sedrati, and Mondher Bouden18 Web Mapping and Behavior Pattern Extraction Tools to Assess Lyme Disease Risk for Humans in Peri-urban Forests 371Hedi Haddad, Bernard Moulin, Franck Manirakiza, Christelle M´eha, Vincent Godard, and Samuel Mermet19 An Integrated Approach for Communicable Disease Geosimulation Based on Epidemiological, Human Mobility and Public Intervention Models 403Hedi Haddad, Bernard Moulin, and Marius Thériault20 Smartphone Trajectories as Data Sources for Agent-based Infection-spread Modeling 443Marcia R. Friesen and Robert D. McLeodIndex 473