Extreme Events

Mario Chavez is a scientist at the Institute of Engineering in Mexico. He has served as a Secretary (1981-1983) and Vice President (1991-1993) of the Mexican Society for Earthquake Engineering AC, Network Director accelerograph and Seismological Research Institute for Engineering, Guadalajara, Mexico (1993-1998 ), and also as an External Adviser of the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of Mexico (2001-2003). He has published 30 articles in journals and 65 conferences, national and international, as well as 76 technical studies. He has directed 12 theses of Bachelor, Masters and 7 Doctoral. His research interests include seismic risk in urban and industrial environment, numerical modeling with supercomputer seismic waves propagation, and extreme events and their economic impact.Michael Ghil is a distinguished research Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA. He joined the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS)) in the year 2002 as a distinguished Professor of Geosciences. He is a highly cited author in the field of geosciences with his research focus on the physics of climate change on all time scales. He is the author of a dozen books and over 275 refereed articles (including the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA) and book chapters in the area of geophysics and climate dynamics. His research interests include atmospheric and oceanic sciences, climate dynamics, dynamical and complex systems theory, estimation theory, extreme events and prediction, geophysical fluid dynamics, macroeconomics, numerical and statistical methods, remote sensing and applications. He was awarded the 2011 Alfred Wegener Medal from the European Geosciences Union and has been recognized as an honorary member of the Union in 2012.Jaime Urrutia Fucugauchi is the Director of the Institute of Geophysics at National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) since 1997 and is a Professor at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM since 1984. He is also the Chairman, Department of Geomagnetism and Geophysical Exploration at the Institute of Geophysics, UNAM (since 1984). He is a former President of the Mexican Geophysical Union (1985-1987). He has also served as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research (1993-1995) (American Geophysical Union). He has over 200 research articles in the field. His research interests include Geo- and Paleo-magnetism, Magnetostratigraphy, Paleogeography and Tectonics, Paleoclimatic and Environmental Evolution and Exploration Geophysics.

• Contributors viiPreface xiAcknowledgments xiii1 IntroductionMario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia]Fucugauchi 1Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 72 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data AnalysisGwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 93 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme EventsCatherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 234 Skill of Data]based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature AnomaliesStefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz 355 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping PointsTimothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 516 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation ApproachMichael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63Part II: Extreme Events in Earth’s Space Environment 797 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass EjectionsAlexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 818 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene BoundaryJaime Urrutia]Fucugauchi and Ligia Pérez]Cruz 93Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 1139 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United StatesAndrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 11510 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane WilmaEdgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez]Ortiz, Ismael Mariño]Tapia, and Angélica Felix 12511 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean TsunamiKazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 13712 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric ExcitationMichael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 16313 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy ApproachMaría]Teresa Ramírez]Herrera, Néstor Corona, and Gerardo Suárez 16514 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal VariationsPaola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 17715 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard AssessmentServando De la Cruz]Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza]Rosas 195Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 20516 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value TheoryRichard W Katz 20717 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid ApproachMario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 21918 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic ImpactsSuzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 30319 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic EconomyAndreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stéphane Hallegatte 343Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 36120 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian CoastsLubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 36321 High]Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme EventsHeriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz 38122 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster PreparednessVladimir Keilis]Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391Index 407