Forest Insect Population Dynamics, Outbreaks, And Global Warming Effects

Alexander S. Isaev, D.Sc. (Biology), Moscow; Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The author of more than 300 published studies, including over 20 monographs on forest ecology and forest entomology. Awards: Gold Medal of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO), V.N. Sukachev Medal of RAS, and IUFRO George Varley Award for Excellence in Forest Insect Research.Vladislav G. Soukhovolsky, D.Sc. (Biophysics), Professor, Krasnoyarsk. An expert in mathematical modeling of complex biological, ecological, social, and political systems. The author of over 500 published studies, including 16 monographs. Olga V. Tarasova, D.Sc. (Agriculture), Professor, Krasnoyarsk. An expert in forest entomology. The author of over 150 published studies, including six monographs. Award: V.I. Vernadsky Award for Excellence in Ecological Education. Elena N. Palnikova, D.Sc. (Agriculture), Professor, Krasnoyarsk. An expert in forest entomology. The author of over 100 published studies, including two monographs. Anton V. Kovalev, Ph.D. (System Analysis), Krasnoyarsk. An expert in system analysis of ecological processes. The author of over 100 published studies, including one monograph.

• Authors ixIntroduction xi1 Population Dynamics of Forest Insects: Outbreaks in Forest Ecosystems 11.1 Approaches to modeling population dynamics of forest insects 11.2 The role of insects in the forest ecosystem 41.3 The phenomenological theory of forest insect population dynamics: the principle of stability of flexible ecologicalsystems 101.4 Classification of the factors of forest insect population dynamics 121.5 Delayed and direct regulation mechanisms 142 Ways of Presenting Data on Forest Insect Population Dynamics 172.1 Representation of population dynamics data 172.2 Presenting the data on forest insect population dynamics through changes in density over time 182.3 Presenting the data on populatiozn dynamics as a phase portrait 242.4 The probability of the population leaving the stability zone and reaching an outbreak density: a model of a one-dimensional potential well 402.5 Presenting the data on forest insect population dynamics as a potential function 473 The Effects of Weather Factors on Population Dynamics of Forest Defoliating Insects 533.1 The necessary and sufficient weather conditions for the development of outbreaks of defoliating insects in Siberia 533.2 Weather influence on the development of the pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. outbreaks 553.3 Siberian silk moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. population dynamics as related to weather conditions 613.4 Synchronization of weather conditions on vast areas as a factor of the occurrence of pan-regional outbreaks 644 Spatial and Temporal Coherence of Forest Insect Population Dynamics 794.1 Coherence and synchronicity of population dynamics 794.2 Spatiotemporal coherence of the population dynamics of defoliating insects in pine forests of Middle Siberia 834.3 Spatiotemporal coherence of population dynamics of defoliating insects in the Alps 904.4 Global coherence of pine looper population dynamics in Eurasia 944.5 Synchronization of the time series of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals 965 Interactions Between Phytophagous Insects and Their Natural Enemies and Population Dynamics of Phytophagous Insects During Outbreaks 1015.1 Entomophagous organisms as a regulating factor in forest insect population dynamics 1015.2 A “phytophagous – entomophagous insect” model 1066 Food Consumption by Forest Insects 1136.1 Energy balance of food consumption by insects: an optimization model 1136.2 A population-energy model of insect outbreaks 1277 AR- and ADL-Models of Forest Insect Population Dynamics 1397.1 An ADL-model (autoregressive distributed lag) of insect population dynamics 1397.2 A model of population dynamics of the gypsy moth in the South Urals 1457.3 Modeling population dynamics of the larch bud moth in the Alps 1557.4 Simulation models of population dynamics of defoliating insects in the Krasnoturansk pine forest 1657.5 Modeling and predicting population dynamics of the European oak leaf-roller 1727.6 Gain margin of the AR-models of forest insect population dynamics 1768 Modeling of Population Dynamics and Outbreaks of Forest Insects as Phase Transitions 1838.1 Models of phase transitions for describing critical events in complex systems 1838.2 Population buildup and development of an outbreak of forest insects as a first-order phase transition 1858.3 Possible mechanisms of the development of forest insect outbreaks 1928.4 Colonization of the tree stands by forest insects as a second-order phase transition 1948.5 Risks of elimination of the population from the community 2019 Forecasting Population Dynamics and Assessing the Risk of Damage to Tree Stands Caused by Outbreaks of Forest Defoliating Insects 2079.1 Methods of forecasting forest insect population dynamics 2079.2 Long-term forecast of population dynamics of defoliating insects 2179.3 Assessment of the maximum risk of damage to tree stands caused by insects 2239.4 Modeling and forecasting of eastern spruce budworm population dynamics 22510 Global Warming and Risks of Forest Insect Outbreaks 23310.1 Climate change and forest insect outbreaks in the Siberian taiga 23310.2 Stress testing of insect impact on forest ecosystems under different scenarios of climate changes in the Siberian taiga 23610.3 Risks of outbreaks of forest insect species with the stable type of population dynamics 244Conclusion 251References 255Index 285