Probabilistic Power System Expansion Planning with Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Storage Systems

JAESEOK CHOI, PHD, is Full Professor at Gyeongsang National University and is a Fellow of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers. He is a senior member of the IEEE Power Engineering Society and participates in the Reliability, Risk, and Probability Applications Subcommittee.KWANG Y. LEE, PHD, is Professor and Chair of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Baylor University and a Life Fellow of IEEE. He is a member of the Intelligent Systems Subcommittee and Station Control Subcommittee of the IEEE Power and Energy Society.

• Author Biographies xviiPreface xixAcknowledgments xxvPart I Generation Expansion Planning 11 Introduction 31.1 Electricity Outlook 31.2 Renewables 81.3 Power System Planning 122 Background on Generation Expansion Planning 152.1 Methodology and Issues 152.2 Formulation of the Least-Cost Generation Expansion Planning Problem 183 Cost Assessment and Methodologies in Generation Expansion Planning 213.1 Basic Cost Concepts 213.2 Methodologies 263.3 Conventional Approach for Load Modeling 344 Load Model and Generation Expansion Planning 394.1 Introduction 394.2 Analytical Approach for Long-Term Generation Expansion Planning 404.3 Optimal Utilization of Hydro Resources 504.4 Long-Range Generation Expansion Planning 564.5 Case Studies 604.6 Conclusion 655 Probabilistic Production Simulation Model 675.1 Introduction 675.2 Effective Load Distribution Curve 675.3 Case Studies 715.4 Probabilistic Production Simulation Algorithm 825.5 Supply Reserve Rate 906 Decision Maker's Satisfaction Using Fuzzy Set Theory 956.1 Introduction 956.2 Fuzzy Dynamic Programming 966.3 Best Generation Mix 976.4 Case Study 1026.5 Conclusion 1087 Best Generation Mix Considering Air Pollution Constraints 1117.1 Introduction 1117.2 Concept of Flexible Planning 1117.3 LP Formulation of the Best Generation Mix 1127.4 Fuzzy LP Formulation of Flexible Generation Mix 1167.5 Case Studies 1187.6 Conclusion 1248 Generation System Expansion Planning with Renewable Energy 1278.1 Introduction 1278.2 LP Formulation of the Best Generation Mix 1288.3 Fuzzy LP Formulation of Flexible Generation Mix 1328.4 Case Studies 1348.5 Conclusion 1409 Reliability Evaluation for Power System Planning with Wind Generators and Multi-Energy Storage Systems 1419.1 Introduction 1419.2 Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation by Monte Carlo Simulation 1439.3 Probabilistic Output Prediction Model of WTG 1459.4 Multi-Energy Storage System Operational Model 1479.5 Multi-ESS Operation Rule 1509.6 Reliability Evaluation with Energy Storage System 1519.7 Case Studies 1529.8 Conclusion 16310 Genetic Algorithm for Generation Expansion Planning and Reactive Power Planning 17710.1 Introduction 17710.2 Generation Expansion Planning 17810.3 The Least-Cost GEP Problem 17910.4 Simple Genetic Algorithm 18010.5 Improved GA for the Least-Cost GEP 18210.6 Case Studies 18610.7 Reactive Power Planning 19210.8 Decomposition of Reactive Power Planning Problem 19410.9 Solution Algorithm for VAR Planning 19610.10 Simulation Results 19810.11 Conclusion 201Part II Transmission System Expansion Planning 21311 Transmission Expansion Planning Problem 21511.1 Introduction 21511.2 Long-Term Transmission Expansion Planning 21611.3 Yearly Transmission Expansion Planning 21811.4 Long-Term Transmission Planning Problem 22411.5 Case Study 22711.6 Conclusion 23212 Models and Methodologies 23512.1 Introduction 23512.2 Transmission System Expansion Planning Problem 23512.3 Cost Evaluation for TEP Considering Electricity Market 23612.4 Model Development History for TEP Problem 23712.5 General DC Power Flow-Based Formulation of TEP Problem 23812.6 Branch and Bound Algorithm 24613 Probabilistic Production Cost Simulation for TEP 25713.1 Introduction 25713.2 Modeling of Extended Effective Load for Composite Power System 25913.3 Probability Distribution Function of the Synthesized Fictitious Equivalent Generator 26313.4 Reliability Evaluation and Probabilistic Production Cost Simulation at Load Points 26513.5 Case Studies 26613.6 Conclusion 28814 Reliability Constraints 29114.1 Deterministic Reliability Constraint Using Contingency Constraints 29114.2 Deterministic Reliability Constraints 32214.3 Probabilistic Reliability Constraints 33314.4 Outage Cost Constraints 35714.5 Deterministic–Probabilistic (D–P) Criteria 37315 Fuzzy Decision Making for TEP 37515.1 Introduction 37515.2 Fuzzy Transmission Expansion Planning Problem 37715.3 Equivalent Crisp Integer Programming and Branch and Bound Method 37915.4 Membership Functions 38015.5 Solution Algorithm 38115.6 Testing 38215.7 Case Study 39015.8 Conclusion 39616 Optimal Reliability Criteria for TEP 40116.1 Introduction 40116.2 Probabilistic Optimal Reliability Criterion 40116.3 Deterministic Reliability Criterion for Composite Power System Expansion Planning 41617 Probabilistic Reliability-Based Expansion Planning with Wind Turbine Generators 43317.1 Introduction 43317.2 The Multistate Operation Model of WTG 43417.3 Reliability Evaluation of a Composite Power System with WTG 43817.4 Case Study 44117.5 Conclusion 44818 Probabilistic Reliability-Based HVDC Expansion Planning with Wind Turbine Generators 44918.1 The Status of HVDC 44918.2 HVDC Technology for Energy Efficiency and Grid Reliability 45118.3 HVDC Impacts on Transmission System Reliabili ty 45518.4 Case Study 455References 465Index 469