JIM MELLON is an investor with interests in several industries. He is founder of a listed fund management company, Charlemagne Capital, and an Asian mining group, Regent Pacific. In addition, Jim is a director of Manx Financial Group – an Isle of Man based bank, and a controlling shareholder of Speymill – a property business, and Webis Holdings. He is a co-founder of Uramin and West African Minerals Resources, both mining groups. The Burnbrae Group, his private company, is a substantial landlord in Germany and in the Isle of Man, and he also owns the hotel chain Sleepwell Hotels. Jim spends most of his time working on start-up ideas and on investing. Jim lives in the Isle of Man, Brussels and Ibiza. He is an honorary fellow of Oriel College, Oxford.AL CHALABI is an entrepreneur with a diverse professional background who started his career as a systems engineer in Canada. Following this, he worked as a management consultant advising corporations across a number of industries, and more recently as the CFO for a real estate investment company. He currently runs CASP-R, a firm he co-founded in 2008 to provide independent real estate research and advisory services to investors and corporate occupiers across the Asia-Pacific region. He lives in Hong Kong with his partner Fiona and two young children.

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• Acknowledgements ixIntroduction xiChapter One Transformational Technologies 1Futurists and Scientists Look into the Future 1The Convergence of Technology and Biology 13Chapter Two The Evolution of Medicine and the Emergence of Biopharma 23From Atoms to Cells to Living Organisms 24The History of the Pharmaceutical Industry 36Chapter Three The Drug Industry – Reinventing the Model 55Big Pharma, Biopharma 59Drug Patents 73The Path to Riches: FDA Approval 79In Summary 84Chapter Four Curing Disease – Promising Prospects in the Main Therapeutic Areas 87Cancer – Step by Step, Being Beaten 89Infectious Diseases: New Antibiotics, Hepatitis and HIV Drugs Make for a Fast-growing Sector 107Obesity and its Evil Sisters: Type 2 Diabetes and Kidney Disease 118The Heart of the Matter – Biggest Killer on the Prowl 128Fading into the Night – Neurodegeneration, Rheumatology and Multiple Sclerosis 132Respiratory Disease – New Drugs: A Breath of Fresh Air 143Rare Diseases and Rare Profits 146Drugs for Pain and for the Central Nervous System 150The Best of the Rest – Ophthalmology, Dermatology, Gastrointestinal and Bone Disease 153Chapter Five Turning Back the Clock – Stem Cells, Genomics, Gene Therapy and Regeneration 157Stem Cells 166Gene Therapy and Nano Medicine 170Organ Growth in and out of the Body 178Chapter Six Demographic Changes 181The Working Age Labour Pool in the World is Shrinking 191Can Immigration Solve the Labour Shortage in the Developed World? 193The Social Impact of an Ageing Population 195The United States is the Best Positioned Developed Country 196Support Ratios Have Been Plummeting 197China’s Grey Future 198What Can Governments Do To Avoid Their Country Becoming a Nursing Home? 200Chapter Seven Bioscience’s Disruptive Influences 205Insurance and Healthcare 206Real Estate 210Politics 211Geopolitics 211Retail Goods and Services 212The Food Industry 213The Investment Industry 214The Law 215Shortage of Young People in Developed Nations 217Chapter Eight Robotics and Nanotechnology 219Robotics 219Surgical Procedures/Surgical Assistance 220Medical Monitor/Nurse 223Housemaid/Domestic Assistance 228Companion/Pet 229Nanotechnology 232Chapter Nine Lifestyle Maintenance 235It’s a Fact: Obesity Shortens Your Life 235Extending Life Expectancy 237Common Traits of People who Live the Longest 239A “Cure” to Ageing 240Telomeres – Our Biological Clock 244Chapter Ten Investment in Biopharma – Chasing Those Money Fountains 247Conservative Portfolio 279Balanced Portfolio 280Speculative Portfolio 281Company Overviews 282Summary 305Glossary 315Appendix – Key Financial Charts of Big Pharma 325References 327Bibliography 329Index 331

JIM MELLON is an investor with interests in several industries. He is founder of a listed fund management company, Charlemagne Capital, and an Asian mining group, Regent Pacific. In addition, Jim is a director of Manx Financial Group – an Isle of Man based bank, and a controlling shareholder of Speymill – a property business, and Webis Holdings. He is a co-founder of Uramin and West African Minerals Resources, both mining groups. The Burnbrae Group, his private company, is a substantial landlord in Germany and in the Isle of Man, and he also owns the hotel chain Sleepwell Hotels. Jim spends most of his time working on start-up ideas and on investing. Jim lives in the Isle of Man, Brussels and Ibiza. He is an honorary fellow of Oriel College, Oxford.AL CHALABI is an entrepreneur with a diverse professional background who started his career as a systems engineer in Canada. Following this, he worked as a management consultant advising corporations across a number of industries, and more recently as the CFO for a real estate investment company. He currently runs CASP-R, a firm he co-founded in 2008 to provide independent real estate research and advisory services to investors and corporate occupiers across the Asia-Pacific region. He lives in Hong Kong with his partner Fiona and two young children.

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• Acknowledgements ixIntroduction xiChapter One Transformational Technologies 1Futurists and Scientists Look into the Future 1The Convergence of Technology and Biology 13Chapter Two The Evolution of Medicine and the Emergence of Biopharma 23From Atoms to Cells to Living Organisms 24The History of the Pharmaceutical Industry 36Chapter Three The Drug Industry – Reinventing the Model 55Big Pharma, Biopharma 59Drug Patents 73The Path to Riches: FDA Approval 79In Summary 84Chapter Four Curing Disease – Promising Prospects in the Main Therapeutic Areas 87Cancer – Step by Step, Being Beaten 89Infectious Diseases: New Antibiotics, Hepatitis and HIV Drugs Make for a Fast-growing Sector 107Obesity and its Evil Sisters: Type 2 Diabetes and Kidney Disease 118The Heart of the Matter – Biggest Killer on the Prowl 128Fading into the Night – Neurodegeneration, Rheumatology and Multiple Sclerosis 132Respiratory Disease – New Drugs: A Breath of Fresh Air 143Rare Diseases and Rare Profits 146Drugs for Pain and for the Central Nervous System 150The Best of the Rest – Ophthalmology, Dermatology, Gastrointestinal and Bone Disease 153Chapter Five Turning Back the Clock – Stem Cells, Genomics, Gene Therapy and Regeneration 157Stem Cells 166Gene Therapy and Nano Medicine 170Organ Growth in and out of the Body 178Chapter Six Demographic Changes 181The Working Age Labour Pool in the World is Shrinking 191Can Immigration Solve the Labour Shortage in the Developed World? 193The Social Impact of an Ageing Population 195The United States is the Best Positioned Developed Country 196Support Ratios Have Been Plummeting 197China’s Grey Future 198What Can Governments Do To Avoid Their Country Becoming a Nursing Home? 200Chapter Seven Bioscience’s Disruptive Influences 205Insurance and Healthcare 206Real Estate 210Politics 211Geopolitics 211Retail Goods and Services 212The Food Industry 213The Investment Industry 214The Law 215Shortage of Young People in Developed Nations 217Chapter Eight Robotics and Nanotechnology 219Robotics 219Surgical Procedures/Surgical Assistance 220Medical Monitor/Nurse 223Housemaid/Domestic Assistance 228Companion/Pet 229Nanotechnology 232Chapter Nine Lifestyle Maintenance 235It’s a Fact: Obesity Shortens Your Life 235Extending Life Expectancy 237Common Traits of People who Live the Longest 239A “Cure” to Ageing 240Telomeres – Our Biological Clock 244Chapter Ten Investment in Biopharma – Chasing Those Money Fountains 247Conservative Portfolio 279Balanced Portfolio 280Speculative Portfolio 281Company Overviews 282Summary 305Glossary 315Appendix – Key Financial Charts of Big Pharma 325References 327Bibliography 329Index 331

JIM MELLON is an investor with interests in several industries. He is founder of a listed fund management company, Charlemagne Capital, and an Asian mining group, Regent Pacific. In addition, Jim is a director of Manx Financial Group – an Isle of Man based bank, and a controlling shareholder of Speymill – a property business, and Webis Holdings. He is a co-founder of Uramin and West African Minerals Resources, both mining groups. The Burnbrae Group, his private company, is a substantial landlord in Germany and in the Isle of Man, and he also owns the hotel chain Sleepwell Hotels. Jim spends most of his time working on start-up ideas and on investing. Jim lives in the Isle of Man, Brussels and Ibiza. He is an honorary fellow of Oriel College, Oxford.AL CHALABI is an entrepreneur with a diverse professional background who started his career as a systems engineer in Canada. Following this, he worked as a management consultant advising corporations across a number of industries, and more recently as the CFO for a real estate investment company. He currently runs CASP-R, a firm he co-founded in 2008 to provide independent real estate research and advisory services to investors and corporate occupiers across the Asia-Pacific region. He lives in Hong Kong with his partner Fiona and two young children.

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• Acknowledgements ixIntroduction xiChapter One Transformational Technologies 1Futurists and Scientists Look into the Future 1The Convergence of Technology and Biology 13Chapter Two The Evolution of Medicine and the Emergence of Biopharma 23From Atoms to Cells to Living Organisms 24The History of the Pharmaceutical Industry 36Chapter Three The Drug Industry – Reinventing the Model 55Big Pharma, Biopharma 59Drug Patents 73The Path to Riches: FDA Approval 79In Summary 84Chapter Four Curing Disease – Promising Prospects in the Main Therapeutic Areas 87Cancer – Step by Step, Being Beaten 89Infectious Diseases: New Antibiotics, Hepatitis and HIV Drugs Make for a Fast-growing Sector 107Obesity and its Evil Sisters: Type 2 Diabetes and Kidney Disease 118The Heart of the Matter – Biggest Killer on the Prowl 128Fading into the Night – Neurodegeneration, Rheumatology and Multiple Sclerosis 132Respiratory Disease – New Drugs: A Breath of Fresh Air 143Rare Diseases and Rare Profits 146Drugs for Pain and for the Central Nervous System 150The Best of the Rest – Ophthalmology, Dermatology, Gastrointestinal and Bone Disease 153Chapter Five Turning Back the Clock – Stem Cells, Genomics, Gene Therapy and Regeneration 157Stem Cells 166Gene Therapy and Nano Medicine 170Organ Growth in and out of the Body 178Chapter Six Demographic Changes 181The Working Age Labour Pool in the World is Shrinking 191Can Immigration Solve the Labour Shortage in the Developed World? 193The Social Impact of an Ageing Population 195The United States is the Best Positioned Developed Country 196Support Ratios Have Been Plummeting 197China’s Grey Future 198What Can Governments Do To Avoid Their Country Becoming a Nursing Home? 200Chapter Seven Bioscience’s Disruptive Influences 205Insurance and Healthcare 206Real Estate 210Politics 211Geopolitics 211Retail Goods and Services 212The Food Industry 213The Investment Industry 214The Law 215Shortage of Young People in Developed Nations 217Chapter Eight Robotics and Nanotechnology 219Robotics 219Surgical Procedures/Surgical Assistance 220Medical Monitor/Nurse 223Housemaid/Domestic Assistance 228Companion/Pet 229Nanotechnology 232Chapter Nine Lifestyle Maintenance 235It’s a Fact: Obesity Shortens Your Life 235Extending Life Expectancy 237Common Traits of People who Live the Longest 239A “Cure” to Ageing 240Telomeres – Our Biological Clock 244Chapter Ten Investment in Biopharma – Chasing Those Money Fountains 247Conservative Portfolio 279Balanced Portfolio 280Speculative Portfolio 281Company Overviews 282Summary 305Glossary 315Appendix – Key Financial Charts of Big Pharma 325References 327Bibliography 329Index 331