Ewan Harrison is Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Political Science at Rutgers University, USA. He is author of The Post-Cold War International System: Strategies, Institutions and Reflexivity (2004) and co-editor of Rethinking Realism in International Relations (2009). He completed his PhD at the University of Bristol in 1999, and was Hedley Bull Junior Research Fellow at St Anne's College, Oxford 2001-2004. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell is Professor of Political Science and Collegiate Scholar at the University of Iowa, USA. She is co-author with Emilia Justyna Powell of Domestic Law Goes Global (2011), and with John A. Vasquez of Conflict, War, and Peace (2013). She is also co-editor of Guide to the Scientific Study of International Processes (2012). She is associate editor of Foreign Policy Analysis, and co-founder of the Journeys in World Politics mentoring workshop for women in international relations.

'It is so refreshing to read a political science book that is willing to tackle a big question and to put major events of our times in larger context. You may not agree with all of Ewan Harrison's and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell's arguments, but you will think differently about the global order and the significance of the revolutions rippling across the Middle East. If I were teaching a course on international relations, foreign policy, or global studies, this book would find a place on my syllabus.' Anne-Marie Slaughter President and CEO, New America Foundation, Bert G. Kerstetter '66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University, USA "Ewan Harrison and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell start off by charting the rise of democratic norms and liberal international institutions. But their cogent analysis of recent and current developments quickly shifts to a compelling, counterintuitive conclusion. The West will be left behind by the revolution it has helped to bring about. A triumph of political insight and scholarly synthesis, this is the type of book that changes minds and policies. Those of us in the West can only hope that it has not come too late!" - Erik Gartzke, University of Essex, United Kingdom, and University of California San Diego, USA "A wonderfully refreshing and unfashionably optimistic discussion of the new world order in the making - one in which the current doom and gloom about a declining West, economic disintegration and the spread of intractable conflict is replaced by a sober yet utterly convincing vision of unprecedented opportunities for the old world powers and the newly emerging ones as well. More than a challenging read for our uncertain times. This is a reasoned manifesto of hope that will surely get - and definitely deserves - the widest readership possible." - Professor Michael Cox, Department of International Relations and Founding Director IDEAS, The London School of Economics, United Kingdom

• Contents Preface and Acknowledgements 1. Introduction: The Arab Spring in Global Perspective World Politics Twenty-Five Years After History 'Ended' A Return to Grand Theory in the Study of World Politics PART I: THE ARAB SPRING AND GLOBAL DEMOCRATIZATION 2. The Arab Spring and Democratic Socialization: Transnational Influences Democratic Socialization in World Politics The Arab Spring and Transnational Democratization Economic Modernization Moderate Religious Movements Communications Technology 3. The Arab Spring and Democratic Socialization: International Influences The Arab Spring and International Democratization Prospects for Democracy in the Middle East PART II: THE TRIUMPH OF DEMOCRACY 4. The Worldwide Crisis of Authoritarianism Modernization and the Growth of the Global Middle Class Low-grade Authoritarianism High-grade Authoritarianism Extremism and Diversionary Tactics 5. The Expansion of the Global Democratic Community Emerging Democracies in World Politics The Spread of Democracy in the non-Western World A Fourth Wave of Democratization The Developing World's 'Second Struggle for Independence' PART III: THE ECLIPSE OF THE WEST 6. A Post-Western Democratic Order The Convergence of Civilizations Overtaking the West: The Role of Institutions The World the West Made: 'Everyone's World' 7. Global Democratic Futures: The Clash of Democratizations Inter-Democratic Conflict in World Politics The Politics of Global Democratization Reforming Global Governance: The 'Reverse Colonization' of International Society 8. Conclusions: A Global Spring Bibliography Figures Figure 1.0 Proportion of Democratic States in the International System

Ewan Harrison is Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Political Science at Rutgers University, USA. He is author of The Post-Cold War International System: Strategies, Institutions and Reflexivity (2004) and co-editor of Rethinking Realism in International Relations (2009). He completed his PhD at the University of Bristol in 1999, and was Hedley Bull Junior Research Fellow at St Anne's College, Oxford 2001-2004. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell is Professor of Political Science and Collegiate Scholar at the University of Iowa, USA. She is co-author with Emilia Justyna Powell of Domestic Law Goes Global (2011), and with John A. Vasquez of Conflict, War, and Peace (2013). She is also co-editor of Guide to the Scientific Study of International Processes (2012). She is associate editor of Foreign Policy Analysis, and co-founder of the Journeys in World Politics mentoring workshop for women in international relations.

'It is so refreshing to read a political science book that is willing to tackle a big question and to put major events of our times in larger context. You may not agree with all of Ewan Harrison's and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell's arguments, but you will think differently about the global order and the significance of the revolutions rippling across the Middle East. If I were teaching a course on international relations, foreign policy, or global studies, this book would find a place on my syllabus.' Anne-Marie Slaughter President and CEO, New America Foundation, Bert G. Kerstetter '66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University, USA "Ewan Harrison and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell start off by charting the rise of democratic norms and liberal international institutions. But their cogent analysis of recent and current developments quickly shifts to a compelling, counterintuitive conclusion. The West will be left behind by the revolution it has helped to bring about. A triumph of political insight and scholarly synthesis, this is the type of book that changes minds and policies. Those of us in the West can only hope that it has not come too late!" - Erik Gartzke, University of Essex, United Kingdom, and University of California San Diego, USA "A wonderfully refreshing and unfashionably optimistic discussion of the new world order in the making - one in which the current doom and gloom about a declining West, economic disintegration and the spread of intractable conflict is replaced by a sober yet utterly convincing vision of unprecedented opportunities for the old world powers and the newly emerging ones as well. More than a challenging read for our uncertain times. This is a reasoned manifesto of hope that will surely get - and definitely deserves - the widest readership possible." - Professor Michael Cox, Department of International Relations and Founding Director IDEAS, The London School of Economics, United Kingdom

• Contents Preface and Acknowledgements 1. Introduction: The Arab Spring in Global Perspective World Politics Twenty-Five Years After History 'Ended' A Return to Grand Theory in the Study of World Politics PART I: THE ARAB SPRING AND GLOBAL DEMOCRATIZATION 2. The Arab Spring and Democratic Socialization: Transnational Influences Democratic Socialization in World Politics The Arab Spring and Transnational Democratization Economic Modernization Moderate Religious Movements Communications Technology 3. The Arab Spring and Democratic Socialization: International Influences The Arab Spring and International Democratization Prospects for Democracy in the Middle East PART II: THE TRIUMPH OF DEMOCRACY 4. The Worldwide Crisis of Authoritarianism Modernization and the Growth of the Global Middle Class Low-grade Authoritarianism High-grade Authoritarianism Extremism and Diversionary Tactics 5. The Expansion of the Global Democratic Community Emerging Democracies in World Politics The Spread of Democracy in the non-Western World A Fourth Wave of Democratization The Developing World's 'Second Struggle for Independence' PART III: THE ECLIPSE OF THE WEST 6. A Post-Western Democratic Order The Convergence of Civilizations Overtaking the West: The Role of Institutions The World the West Made: 'Everyone's World' 7. Global Democratic Futures: The Clash of Democratizations Inter-Democratic Conflict in World Politics The Politics of Global Democratization Reforming Global Governance: The 'Reverse Colonization' of International Society 8. Conclusions: A Global Spring Bibliography Figures Figure 1.0 Proportion of Democratic States in the International System

Ewan Harrison is Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Political Science at Rutgers University, USA. He is author of The Post-Cold War International System: Strategies, Institutions and Reflexivity (2004) and co-editor of Rethinking Realism in International Relations (2009). He completed his PhD at the University of Bristol in 1999, and was Hedley Bull Junior Research Fellow at St Anne's College, Oxford 2001-2004. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell is Professor of Political Science and Collegiate Scholar at the University of Iowa, USA. She is co-author with Emilia Justyna Powell of Domestic Law Goes Global (2011), and with John A. Vasquez of Conflict, War, and Peace (2013). She is also co-editor of Guide to the Scientific Study of International Processes (2012). She is associate editor of Foreign Policy Analysis, and co-founder of the Journeys in World Politics mentoring workshop for women in international relations.

'It is so refreshing to read a political science book that is willing to tackle a big question and to put major events of our times in larger context. You may not agree with all of Ewan Harrison's and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell's arguments, but you will think differently about the global order and the significance of the revolutions rippling across the Middle East. If I were teaching a course on international relations, foreign policy, or global studies, this book would find a place on my syllabus.' Anne-Marie Slaughter President and CEO, New America Foundation, Bert G. Kerstetter '66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University, USA "Ewan Harrison and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell start off by charting the rise of democratic norms and liberal international institutions. But their cogent analysis of recent and current developments quickly shifts to a compelling, counterintuitive conclusion. The West will be left behind by the revolution it has helped to bring about. A triumph of political insight and scholarly synthesis, this is the type of book that changes minds and policies. Those of us in the West can only hope that it has not come too late!" - Erik Gartzke, University of Essex, United Kingdom, and University of California San Diego, USA "A wonderfully refreshing and unfashionably optimistic discussion of the new world order in the making - one in which the current doom and gloom about a declining West, economic disintegration and the spread of intractable conflict is replaced by a sober yet utterly convincing vision of unprecedented opportunities for the old world powers and the newly emerging ones as well. More than a challenging read for our uncertain times. This is a reasoned manifesto of hope that will surely get - and definitely deserves - the widest readership possible." - Professor Michael Cox, Department of International Relations and Founding Director IDEAS, The London School of Economics, United Kingdom

• Contents Preface and Acknowledgements 1. Introduction: The Arab Spring in Global Perspective World Politics Twenty-Five Years After History 'Ended' A Return to Grand Theory in the Study of World Politics PART I: THE ARAB SPRING AND GLOBAL DEMOCRATIZATION 2. The Arab Spring and Democratic Socialization: Transnational Influences Democratic Socialization in World Politics The Arab Spring and Transnational Democratization Economic Modernization Moderate Religious Movements Communications Technology 3. The Arab Spring and Democratic Socialization: International Influences The Arab Spring and International Democratization Prospects for Democracy in the Middle East PART II: THE TRIUMPH OF DEMOCRACY 4. The Worldwide Crisis of Authoritarianism Modernization and the Growth of the Global Middle Class Low-grade Authoritarianism High-grade Authoritarianism Extremism and Diversionary Tactics 5. The Expansion of the Global Democratic Community Emerging Democracies in World Politics The Spread of Democracy in the non-Western World A Fourth Wave of Democratization The Developing World's 'Second Struggle for Independence' PART III: THE ECLIPSE OF THE WEST 6. A Post-Western Democratic Order The Convergence of Civilizations Overtaking the West: The Role of Institutions The World the West Made: 'Everyone's World' 7. Global Democratic Futures: The Clash of Democratizations Inter-Democratic Conflict in World Politics The Politics of Global Democratization Reforming Global Governance: The 'Reverse Colonization' of International Society 8. Conclusions: A Global Spring Bibliography Figures Figure 1.0 Proportion of Democratic States in the International System