World Economy Towards Global Disequilibrium

MARIO BALDASSARRI is Professor of Economics at the University of Rome 'La Sapienza', Italy, and was appointed Vice-Minister for Economy and Finance for the Italian Government from June 2001 to May 2006. In April 2006 he was elected Senator. He is the author of numerous books and publications on a wide range of economic issues, including the role of government budgets on economic growth and social distribution of income, industrial policy, the labour market and employment. In recent years he has focused on the problem of lack of growth in the European economy, and lack of equilibrium in the world economy.PASQUALE CAPRETTA is Senior Economist in the Economic Research Department of Confindustria (the Association of Italian Industries), Italy, where he is responsible for econometric modelling and forecasting. He was Associate Economist at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, where he worked on the WEFA-World Model. He is author of several articles on international economics, exchange rates and the effects of raw material prices on growth and inflation.

• Acknowledgements xviii List of Figures List of Maps xvi List of Tables Introduction and Main Conclusions PART I: WHAT DOES GLOBALIZATION REALLY MEAN? : WORLD, EUROPE, ITALY The World Has Changed: Wake Up, Europe! Fifty Years Ago... Until a Few Years Ago Thirty Years from Now... If Everything Continues as it Has in the Last Five Years PART II: HOW TO PREVENT DISEQUILIBRIUM IN THE WORLD ECONOMY The American Grasshopper, the Chinese Ant, the Russian Eagle and the European Sleeping Beauty How Long Can the European Beauty Keep Sleeping: Maastricht and Lisbon Together or Maastricht Alone... For Ever and Ever. Amen? World Growth, Trade, Real and Financial Imbalances, the International Monetary System and Exchange Rates: A Global Vision Appendix to Chapter Six: Tables of Simulations Does a Positive Sum Game that Makes Everyone Better Off Really Exist? The Risks and Temptations from the Myopic and Egoistic Viewpoints of Individual Continents and Countries Appendix to Chapter Seven: Tables of Simulations PART III: ITALY AS A CASE STUDY FOR EUROPE: GROWTH IS POSSIBLE, GROWING MORE IS A MUST Financial Equilibrium and Higher Growth: An Analysis of Expenditure Items with the Purpose of Appraising Where to Find and Where to Shift Resources A Policy Mix to Re-Launch Growth under Conditions of Structural Equilibrium in Public Finance A Strategy of Structural Policies for Competitiveness and Growth Appendix to Part III: The Italian Plan to Match the Lisbon Strategy