CLAUDIO FESER, a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, serves on multiple company boards, including as chairperson. He teaches innovation and leadership at the University of St. Gallen and ETH Zurich, Switzerland. DANIELLA LAUREIRO-MARTINEZ is a Senior Scientist in the Technology and Innovation Management Group at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, where she leads the COLAB, a research group focused on cognition, learning and adaptive behavior. KAROLIN FRANKENBERGER is Professor of Strategic Management and Innovation and the Dean of the Executive School of Management, Technology and Law at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. STEFANO BRUSONI is Professor of Technology and Innovation Management and Vice-Rector for Continuing Education at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

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• Foreword by Mario Greco xiiiIntroduction xixPrologue xxviiPart One: Understanding Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 1: Making Great Predictions 3Chapter 2: Case 1: Making People Decisions 19Chapter 3: Developing Options to Approximate the Right Decision 29Part Two: Making Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 4: Case 2: Making Strategic Decisions 57Chapter 5: Identifying Assumptions and Testing Them 69Chapter 6: Case 3: Making Decisions About Company Growth 95Chapter 7: Developing Better Options 107Part Three: Managing the Tensions Created by Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 8: Case 4: Implementing Decisions 129Chapter 9: Managing Change 135Part Four: Becoming Super DecidersChapter 10: Case 5: Making Work- Life Balance Decisions 157Chapter 11: Becoming Better at Making Decisions 165Chapter 12: Case 6: Making “Tough” Decisions 185Chapter 13: Preparing to Be Wrong 195Part Five: ConclusionsChapter 14: Epilogue 211Chapter 15: Conclusions 215Notes 225Appendixes 227References 249About the Authors 267Index 271

CLAUDIO FESER, a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, serves on multiple company boards, including as chairperson. He teaches innovation and leadership at the University of St. Gallen and ETH Zurich, Switzerland. DANIELLA LAUREIRO-MARTINEZ is a Senior Scientist in the Technology and Innovation Management Group at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, where she leads the COLAB, a research group focused on cognition, learning and adaptive behavior. KAROLIN FRANKENBERGER is Professor of Strategic Management and Innovation and the Dean of the Executive School of Management, Technology and Law at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. STEFANO BRUSONI is Professor of Technology and Innovation Management and Vice-Rector for Continuing Education at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

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• Foreword by Mario Greco xiiiIntroduction xixPrologue xxviiPart One: Understanding Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 1: Making Great Predictions 3Chapter 2: Case 1: Making People Decisions 19Chapter 3: Developing Options to Approximate the Right Decision 29Part Two: Making Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 4: Case 2: Making Strategic Decisions 57Chapter 5: Identifying Assumptions and Testing Them 69Chapter 6: Case 3: Making Decisions About Company Growth 95Chapter 7: Developing Better Options 107Part Three: Managing the Tensions Created by Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 8: Case 4: Implementing Decisions 129Chapter 9: Managing Change 135Part Four: Becoming Super DecidersChapter 10: Case 5: Making Work- Life Balance Decisions 157Chapter 11: Becoming Better at Making Decisions 165Chapter 12: Case 6: Making “Tough” Decisions 185Chapter 13: Preparing to Be Wrong 195Part Five: ConclusionsChapter 14: Epilogue 211Chapter 15: Conclusions 215Notes 225Appendixes 227References 249About the Authors 267Index 271

CLAUDIO FESER, a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, serves on multiple company boards, including as chairperson. He teaches innovation and leadership at the University of St. Gallen and ETH Zurich, Switzerland. DANIELLA LAUREIRO-MARTINEZ is a Senior Scientist in the Technology and Innovation Management Group at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, where she leads the COLAB, a research group focused on cognition, learning and adaptive behavior. KAROLIN FRANKENBERGER is Professor of Strategic Management and Innovation and the Dean of the Executive School of Management, Technology and Law at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. STEFANO BRUSONI is Professor of Technology and Innovation Management and Vice-Rector for Continuing Education at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

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• Foreword by Mario Greco xiiiIntroduction xixPrologue xxviiPart One: Understanding Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 1: Making Great Predictions 3Chapter 2: Case 1: Making People Decisions 19Chapter 3: Developing Options to Approximate the Right Decision 29Part Two: Making Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 4: Case 2: Making Strategic Decisions 57Chapter 5: Identifying Assumptions and Testing Them 69Chapter 6: Case 3: Making Decisions About Company Growth 95Chapter 7: Developing Better Options 107Part Three: Managing the Tensions Created by Decisions Under UncertaintyChapter 8: Case 4: Implementing Decisions 129Chapter 9: Managing Change 135Part Four: Becoming Super DecidersChapter 10: Case 5: Making Work- Life Balance Decisions 157Chapter 11: Becoming Better at Making Decisions 165Chapter 12: Case 6: Making “Tough” Decisions 185Chapter 13: Preparing to Be Wrong 195Part Five: ConclusionsChapter 14: Epilogue 211Chapter 15: Conclusions 215Notes 225Appendixes 227References 249About the Authors 267Index 271