Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking

Christoph Meyer is a Professor of European and International Politics at King’s College London. He authored with De Franco and Otto Warning about War: Conflict, Persuasion and Foreign Policy (Cambridge University Press, 2020), which won the 2021 ISA best book award. Eva Michaels is a Beatriu de Pinós Fellow at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals. Her research has been published in the Journal of Common Market Studies, Media, War & Conflict and Intelligence and National Security. Nikki Ikani is Assistant Professor in Intelligence and Security at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University. She has published in the field intelligence, International Relations and European foreign policy and is the author of Crisis and Change in European Foreign Policy (Manchester University Press, 2021). Aviva Guttmann is a Lecturer in Strategy and Intelligence at Aberystwyth University. She is the author of The Origins of International Counterterrorism (Brill, 2018) and contributed several articles to refereed academic journals of history, intelligence, strategy, and security Michael S. Goodman is Professor of Intelligence and International Affairs in the Department of War Studies, King's College London and Visiting Professor at the Norwegian Defence Intelligence School. He has published widely in the field of intelligence history, including most recently The Official History of the Joint Intelligence Committee, Volume I: From the Approach of the Second World War to the Suez Crisis (Routledge, 2015), which was chosen as one of The Spectator’s books of the year. He is series editor for Intelligence and Security for Hurst/Columbia University Press; and for Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare for Edinburgh University Press; and is a member of the editorial boards for five journals. He is currently on secondment to the Cabinet Office where he is the Official Historian of the Joint Intelligence Committee.

This book, alongside the extensive research that underpins it, offers an array of noteworthy contributions that deserve attention. [...] In summary, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy provides a balanced and multifaceted perspective, making it a valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, and researchers interested in the intricate world of intelligence and its interplay with foreign policy.

• Acknowledgements Introduction: Estimative Intelligence And Anticipatory Foreign Policy Guttmann, Ikani, Meyer & Michaels *Chapter 1: Expectations From Estimative Intelligence & Anticipatory Foreign Policy Ikani, Meyer, Michaels & Guttmann *Chapter 2: Surprise, Revisited: An Eu Performance Evaluation Of The Arab Uprisings Ikani *Chapter 3: How Germany And The Uk Anticipated Isis’ Rise To Power In Syria And Iraq Guttmann & Micheals *Chapter 4: The Ukraine-Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons For The Eu’s Estimative Intelligence Meyer & Ikani *Chapter 5: The Uk – Intelligence Assessment, Priorities And Knowing That You Are Being Warned Rimmer *Chapter 6: "We Never Plan For The Worst Case" - Considering The Case Of Germany Schlie & Lutsch *Chapter 7: Lessons Learned And Still To Be Learned: The Case Of The European Union Conrad *Chapter 8: Which Lessons To Learn From An Era Of Surprise? Key Findings And Implications Meyer, Guttmann & Ikani *Contributors *