Beatrice Heuser is Distinguished Professor in the Brussels School of Governance at the Free University of Brussels. She teaches Strategy at the General Staff Academy of the German armed forces.

"Using admirably straightforward language, Beatrice Heuser explains why time and again seemingly intelligent and well-informed leaders make poor strategic decisions and thereby wreck people's lives. I urge the wannabe leaders of tomorrow to read her book and learn from the many examples she gives of how making unwarranted assumptions about the adversary and failure to correct for biases leads to disaster."Sir David Omand GCB, King's College London"Richly animated with historical and contemporary vignettes, Flawed Strategy offers a compelling analysis of the challenges associated with assessing adversary intentions. It is an essential read for scholars, students, and practitioners of strategy."Sara Moller, Georgetown University"This provocative book shows that attempts to analyse adversarial decision makers in mechanistic terms, either as rational actors driven by mathematical adherence to cost-benefit economics, or in adherence to some international relations theory, are fallacious. It shows that decision-making is emotive, political, and all too human. This book exposes, with searing insight, the biases, influences, and outright failures that punctuate our history."Robert Johnson, University of Oxford"Beatrice Heuser is one of the leading strategic thinkers of this generation. Her clarity of thinking and incisive analytical mind is on full display in this excellent tome. It is both a guide for policy makers and a stark warning about the dangers of foggy thinking."John Bew, King's College London"Punchy and provocative"Foreign Affairs"Beatrice Heuser deploys her expertise refreshingly, including explaining where and why she has changed her mind."Engelsberg Ideas

• Acknowledgements PrefaceIntroduction1 The Rational/Irrational Actor Fallacy2 Our Biases3 Knowns and Unknowns (And How We Use Them) 4 Flaws and Quandries of Strategy Making Epilogue Select Bibliography Endnotes

Beatrice Heuser is Distinguished Professor in the Brussels School of Governance at the Free University of Brussels. She teaches Strategy at the General Staff Academy of the German armed forces.

"Using admirably straightforward language, Beatrice Heuser explains why time and again seemingly intelligent and well-informed leaders make poor strategic decisions and thereby wreck people's lives. I urge the wannabe leaders of tomorrow to read her book and learn from the many examples she gives of how making unwarranted assumptions about the adversary and failure to correct for biases leads to disaster."Sir David Omand GCB, King's College London"Richly animated with historical and contemporary vignettes, Flawed Strategy offers a compelling analysis of the challenges associated with assessing adversary intentions. It is an essential read for scholars, students, and practitioners of strategy."Sara Moller, Georgetown University"This provocative book shows that attempts to analyse adversarial decision makers in mechanistic terms, either as rational actors driven by mathematical adherence to cost-benefit economics, or in adherence to some international relations theory, are fallacious. It shows that decision-making is emotive, political, and all too human. This book exposes, with searing insight, the biases, influences, and outright failures that punctuate our history."Robert Johnson, University of Oxford"Beatrice Heuser is one of the leading strategic thinkers of this generation. Her clarity of thinking and incisive analytical mind is on full display in this excellent tome. It is both a guide for policy makers and a stark warning about the dangers of foggy thinking."John Bew, King's College London"Punchy and provocative"Foreign Affairs"Beatrice Heuser deploys her expertise refreshingly, including explaining where and why she has changed her mind."Engelsberg Ideas

• Acknowledgements PrefaceIntroduction1 The Rational/Irrational Actor Fallacy2 Our Biases3 Knowns and Unknowns (And How We Use Them) 4 Flaws and Quandries of Strategy Making Epilogue Select Bibliography Endnotes

Beatrice Heuser is Distinguished Professor in the Brussels School of Governance at the Free University of Brussels. She teaches Strategy at the General Staff Academy of the German armed forces.

"Using admirably straightforward language, Beatrice Heuser explains why time and again seemingly intelligent and well-informed leaders make poor strategic decisions and thereby wreck people's lives. I urge the wannabe leaders of tomorrow to read her book and learn from the many examples she gives of how making unwarranted assumptions about the adversary and failure to correct for biases leads to disaster."Sir David Omand GCB, King's College London"Richly animated with historical and contemporary vignettes, Flawed Strategy offers a compelling analysis of the challenges associated with assessing adversary intentions. It is an essential read for scholars, students, and practitioners of strategy."Sara Moller, Georgetown University"This provocative book shows that attempts to analyse adversarial decision makers in mechanistic terms, either as rational actors driven by mathematical adherence to cost-benefit economics, or in adherence to some international relations theory, are fallacious. It shows that decision-making is emotive, political, and all too human. This book exposes, with searing insight, the biases, influences, and outright failures that punctuate our history."Robert Johnson, University of Oxford"Beatrice Heuser is one of the leading strategic thinkers of this generation. Her clarity of thinking and incisive analytical mind is on full display in this excellent tome. It is both a guide for policy makers and a stark warning about the dangers of foggy thinking."John Bew, King's College London"Punchy and provocative"Foreign Affairs"Beatrice Heuser deploys her expertise refreshingly, including explaining where and why she has changed her mind."Engelsberg Ideas

• Acknowledgements PrefaceIntroduction1 The Rational/Irrational Actor Fallacy2 Our Biases3 Knowns and Unknowns (And How We Use Them) 4 Flaws and Quandries of Strategy Making Epilogue Select Bibliography Endnotes