Taiwan Tinderbox

J. Michael Cole is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C., the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, Canada, and the Taiwan Hub at the University of Nottingham, UK. He is also a Research Fellow and Executive Editor with the Prospect Foundation in Taiwan, and a strategic consultant for various governments and the private sector. Until May 2024, he was the Senior Advisor on Countering Foreign Authoritarian Influence (CFAI) with the International Republican Institute (IRI). He is a former analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) in Ottawa.

"A one-stop resource that adeptly combines the historical context and contemporary issues relating to the risk of a Taiwan Strait conflict, bringing to fore both the perspectives of mainland China and Taiwan."Collin Koh Swee Lean, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University"Describing the many factors that constitute Taiwan's security plight - military, economic, political, China, America - in a coherent way is no easy task. But J. Michael Cole does it well in his Taiwan Tinderbox, providing a wealth of detail while always keeping the big picture in view. That he resides in Taiwan adds a valuable immediacy to his analysis."Richard C. Bush, The Brookings Institution"Drawing on decades of firsthand experience in Taiwan, J. Michael Cole offers a penetrating and sobering exploration of how China's hardening posture under Xi Jinping, Taiwan's democratic consolidation, and American strategic indecision have converged in a volatile equation exposing Taiwan as a key frontline in the deepening global clash between authoritarian revisionism and democratic resilience." Jude Blanchette, RAND China Research Center"The Taiwan Tinderbox, astutely written by one of the sharpest minds on the subject on Taiwan, offers a clear-eyed and thought-provoking assessment of Beijing's intensifying encroachment, while deftly explaining Taiwan's remarkable resilience in the face of enormous odds. J. Michael Cole has produced an important and profoundly timely work on this David vs. Goliath struggle." Christopher Walker, Center for European Policy Analysis"The next great crisis will not be a surprise - it's already in plain sight. While global attention is drawn to active conflicts, J. Michael Cole's excellent book reminds us that Taiwan, the most dangerous flashpoint of our time, is also the one we're not yet prepared for. With clarity and urgency, he reveals how Taiwan has become the geopolitical fault line where democratic dynamism and authoritarian ambition collide. This is not just a regional issue - it's a global test of will, strategy, and values." Daniel Twining, International Republican Institute"A sobering assessment"National Post"A strong case, both strategically and morally, for defending Taiwan as a matter of vital interest to a world we'd want to live in."Taipei Times"Cole, who has been based in Taiwan for 20 years, offers a crystal clear analysis of all the most important issues that will determine the island's fate."Financial Times, Best Books of 2025: Politics

• Contents AcknowledgmentsAbbreviationsPreface Introduction1.   The Unbridgeable Divide2.   Xi’s Unbridled Ambitions3.   Attacking Taiwan’s Democracy4.   The Impact of Ukraine5.   The Catastrophe: War in the Taiwan Strait6.   Avoiding the Nightmare7.   Taiwan and the Battle for Democracy’s Future NotesIndex