Facing China

Jean-Pierre Cabestan is emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research, Paris, and emeritus professor of political science, department of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. He is also associate researcher at the Asia Centre, Paris and at the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China, Hong Kong. His main themes of research are Chinese politics and law, China’s foreign and security policies, China-Africa relations, China-Taiwan relations and Taiwanese politics. His most recent publications are China Tomorrow: Democracy or Dictatorship? (Rowman & Littlefield, 2019) and Demain la Chine: guerre ou paix? (China Tomorrow: War or Peace?, Gallimard, 2021), due to be published in English by Rowman & Littlefield in early 2023.

What is the likelihood that the US will go to war with China soon? Cabestan’s volume starts and ends with the “Thucydides Trap,” assessing the relevance of the fifth-century (BC) war between Athens and Sparta to China's grand strategy as a rising power seeking to displace the hegemon, the US. Two chapters treat the rise of nationalism and military power in China and internal debates over the risks of war. Three chapters view probable scenarios of China-US conflict: over Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and over the Senkaku Islands. Another considers Sino-Indian border tensions and conflict on the Korean peninsula. Cabestan believes these flash points are not likely to erupt, given China’s reluctance to use force to solve territorial issues. More likely are continued “gray zone tactics” until the People’s Liberation Army can project force easily to nearby and distant targets. For the next decade or so, Cabestan predicts a “cold peace” between the US and China. His volume is among the best in the flurry of books discussing China-US struggles because of its skillful analysis of China-US conflict and attempted even-handedness in treating complex cases like Taiwan. Highly recommended. Advanced undergraduates through faculty; professionals; general readers.

• Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited1 An Accumulation of Passions and AmmunitionChinaThe United StatesChina’s Main Neighbors: Japan, India, AustraliaConclusion2 War Risks Debate in ChinaChina’s Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding WarDebates Among Chinese ExpertsConclusion3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely?Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US EngagementsThe PLA’s Specific Preparations for War against TaiwanEvolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan WarEvolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan WarEvolution of Debates and Defense Policy in TaiwanGray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating TaiwanConclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits4 War Risks in the South China SeaVarious Parties’ Claims and ControlsProliferating Sino-US ConflictsConclusion5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) IslandsChinese and Japanese Stands on the DisputeChinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the SenkakuHardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 AgreementCrisis Management Mechanisms and Their LimitationsEnhanced Senkaku MilitarizationClarifications and IncertitudesConclusion6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India WarRecent Rise in Border TensionsRisks of Sino-Indian WarConclusion7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In?Warning SignsStrengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA ScenariosConclusionConclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow?War Will Likely Not Erupt TomorrowRisks or Armed Incidents and Military CrisesSino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End?Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western PacificThe Role of the US and Its AlliesAbout the Author