Peace and Conflict 2014

David A. Backer is a Research Associate Professor and Assistant Director of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management, as well as Director of the Minor in International Development and Conflict Management, at the University of Maryland. His research focuses on conflict dynamics and post-conflict processes. He is Co-Director of the West Africa Transitional Justice Project and the Constituency-Level Elections Archive., >Jonathan Wilkenfeld is a Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, where he serves as Director of the ICONS simulation project. His research and publications focus on conflict and crisis, with particular emphasis on negotiation and mediation at the interstate and intrastate levels. He is CoDirector of the International Crisis Behavior Project., >Paul K. Huth is a Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland and Director of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management. He is also editor of the Journal of Conflict Resolution. He has published books and widely in journals on subjects related to the study of international conflict and war, including deterrence behavior, crisis decision making, territorial disputes, the democratic peace, international law and dispute resolution, and the civilian consequences of war.

Praise for the 2014 Edition: “Truth and data are the first casualties of armed conflict. Peace and Conflict 2014 provides a very useful and accessible overview of key trends and themes, begins to address some of the burning issues in the field, and helps put risks into perspective.” —Tilman Brück, Director, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Sweden “The book is a treasure trove, methodically collated and analysed by a group of scholars of repute; striking for its applicability to various burning situations. Importantly, it focuses on the study of conflict and peace-building at the micro level; covering an array of key topics such as ethnicity, climate, foreign aid, sexual violence, mass atrocities and terrorism, as well as humanitarian and reconstruction responses…Overall, Peace and Conflict 2014 is an invaluable aid to policy-makers and global peace movements both as a fund of information and a tool that will help strategize their future course of action.” —Global Dialogue Review Praise for Previous Editions: Peace and Conflict 2012 was a Choice Recommended title! “Too much of the writing on international affairs is long on opinions and short on facts. Peace and Conflict is the rare exception. Its clear presentations of evidence and analyses help to better inform discussions about the most pressing security challenges in today’s world.” —Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International “Peace and Conflict is an essential tool for scholars and policy makers seeking the facts behind the headlines about the nature and extent of conflict around the world. It provides a systematic, empirically grounded, and highly nuanced assessment of the darker aspects of human nature and underscores, yet again, the inescapable truth of our interconnected world and intertwined fate.” —Vartan Gregorian, President, Carnegie Corporation of New York “Across the globe governments are now trying to make sense of, and cope with, breakdowns in global order of unprecedented complexity. Widening gaps between rich and poor; multiplying ‘failed states’; spreading threats from nonstate actors using more deadly forms of terrorism as tools against settled societies; and storm clouds labeled ‘ideological and religious war’ all challenge scholars and policy makers alike with many questions, and few answers. Peace and Conflict 2008 provides crucial clues about this uncertain future. Reams of critical data and analysis, together with identification of current trends and likely outcomes, point governments as well as international and nongovernmental organizations toward better intervention strategies. Its excellent introduction highlights the main conclusions for the policy community. In short, Peace and Conflict 2008 is a tour de force!” —The Honorable Samuel Lewis, Past President, United States Institute of Peace

• Chapter 1 Introduction to Peace and Conflict 2014; Chapter 2 The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger: Ranking States on Future Risks, David A. Backer, Paul K. Huth; Chapter 3 Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2012, David A. Backer, Paul K. Huth; Chapter 4 Global Trends in Democratization: Leadership Transitions and Systemic Change, Erica Frantz; Chapter 5 Global Trends in Terrorism, 1970–2011, Gary LaFree, Laura Dugan; Part 101 Special Theme—Disaggregation and the Microdynamics of Conflict and Peacebuilding: Introduction, David A. Backer; Chapter 6 Disaggregating Conflict by Actors, Time, and Location, Karsten Donnay, Elena Gadjanova, Ravi Bhavnani; Chapter 7 The Political Geography of Climate Vulnerability, Conflict, and Aid in Africa, Joshua W. Busby, Clionadh Raleigh, Idean Salehyan; Chapter 8 Exploring Inequality and Ethnic Conflict: EPR-ETH and Growup, Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin, Julian Wucherpfennig; Chapter 9 Describing and Understanding Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict: The Role of Disaggregation, Amelia Hoover Green; Chapter 10 Localizing Peace, Reconstruction, and the Effects of Mass Violence, Patrick Vinck, Phuong N. Pham; Chapter 11 Crowdsourcing to Map Conflict, Crises, and Humanitarian Responses, Patrick Meier; Chapter 12 Profiles of Active Armed Conflicts, Jonathan Wilkenfeld;