Autocrat’s Predicament

Timothy R. Heath is senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation who previously served in the U.S. government as an intelligence specialist on China

“China’s economic growth has been outstanding over the past four decades, but continuing that trajectory depends on changing China’s growth model from one of extensive growth to one of intensive growth. Tim Heath argues that this transformation depends more on political considerations than economic policies. In particular, he argues that single party, Leninist-style polities have a difficult time transforming their economic systems because they usually lack what he calls an 'enabling condition' – a combination of a strong central government, a weak opposition, and a cohesive public – but efforts to shore up one of these conditions tends to weaken one or more of the other two conditions. This is a novel and welcome new approach to understanding China’s political economy.”

• Introduction. The Political Challenge of Intensive Growth PoliciesChapter 1. The Theory of the Enabling ConditionChapter 2. China 1991-1997: Deng Xiaoping’s Triumph and a Toxic Political LegacyChapter 3. China 2004-2010: Hu Jintao: Professionalization Fails to Convert Opposing ElitesChapter 4. China 2013-2020: A Fragmented Public Undermines Xi’s Centralization StrategyChapter 5. Taiwan 1973-79: Success Amid a Looming Threat of an Elite-Led Popular MobilizationChapter 6. Soviet Union 1985-1990: Weak Central Leadership, Strong Elite Opposition Dooms Perestroika Chapter 7. Comparative AnalysisConclusion