Nuclear Economy 1

Jacques Percebois is Professor Emeritus at the University of Montpellier, France. He is the founder of both CREDEN and a master's degree in energy economics. He is also the author of several books on energy and has been a member of several national commissions on nuclear energy.Nicolas Thiollière is a nuclear physicist and teacher-researcher at IMT Atlantique, France. He is also attached to the fundamental research laboratory, Subatech. He is a specialist in reactor and fuel cycle modeling.

• Preface ixSylvain DAVID, Jacques PERCEBOIS and Nicolas THIOLLIÈREChapter 1 The Evolution of Nuclear Energy in the World and in France 1Daniel IRACANE, Stéphanie TILLEMENT and Frédéric GARCIAS1.1 Introduction 11.2 Nuclear power in the world 31.2.1 Creating long-term visibility seducing the market to invest: the case of the United Kingdom 41.2.2 Nuclear activities at the heart of State integration and at the service of economic diplomacy: the case of Russia 81.2.3 The concrete implications of political change: the case of South Korea 111.2.4 A new innovation paradigm at the service of reconquering the market: the case of the United States 131.2.5 The severe nuclear accident or the possibility of a sudden halt to the use of nuclear energy: the case of Japan 181.2.6 China: the emergence of an international leader 221.2.7 The need for multinational coherence in energy policies: the case of difficult European convergence 271.3 The trajectory of the French nuclear ecosystem, between continuity and rupture 331.3.1 The origins of French civil nuclear energy 351.3.2 French nuclear power in the industrial age 391.3.3 A story within a story: sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) 401.3.4 The "white" years: the gradual decline of new projects 421.3.5 The painful emergence of a "nuclear revival" in France: projects, organizations and competencies 441.4 Conclusion 511.5 References 53Chapter 2 Nuclear Costs: Methodological Aspects 55Jean-Guy DEVEZEAUX DE LAVERGNE and Nicolas THIOLLIÈRE2.1 Introduction 552.2 The different notions of costs 562.2.1 Nuclear costs and associated challenges 572.2.2 Defining the actors concerned by an economic question 572.2.3 Organizing cost concepts following a temporal logic 582.2.4 Specifying the scope of cost analyses 592.2.5 Choosing the appropriate calculation methods 632.2.6 Data 652.3 The discounted cost of nuclear electricity 662.3.1 Roles and challenges of economic calculation 672.3.2 Key preliminary concepts for calculating the LCOE 702.3.3 Calculation of the LCOE 732.4 Determining the discount rate 762.4.1 The three theoretical approaches 772.4.2 Values and effects of the discount rate 792.5 Case study: a new nuclear reactor 832.5.1 Reference scenario 832.5.2 Results 882.6 Conclusion 922.7 References 94Chapter 3 The Production Costs of Nuclear Electricity 97Jean-Guy DEVEZEAUX DE LAVERGNE3.1 Introduction 973.2 Nuclear costs of existing reactors (Generation II) 983.2.1 Cost assessment methods for historical reactors 983.2.2 Existing fleet costs 1043.3 Costs of nuclear electricity at the power station terminal 1173.3.1 Construction costs of 3G water reactors 1183.3.2 Financing terms and risks for parties 1303.3.3 Changes in other components of the future nuclear cost 1373.4 Overview of production costs of other nuclear technologies: SMR and FNR 1423.4.1 SMR reactors 1433.4.2 Fast neutron reactors 1453.5 Electrical system costs and nuclear competitiveness 1473.5.1 Calculation of system costs 1493.5.2 Nuclear system costs 1493.5.3 System costs and choice hierarchy 1503.5.4 Competition, synergies and complementarities between nuclear and renewable energy 1523.6 Conclusion 1533.7 References 158Chapter 4 The Costs of Nuclear Fuel 163Cécile EVANS, Sophie GABRIEL, Christian POLAK and Philippe VALBUENA4.1 The cost of fuel expressed in the LCOE 1664.2 Uranium: availability and markets 1694.2.1 Uranium consumption 1694.2.2 Terminology, resources and reserves 1714.2.3 Uranium resources 1784.2.4 Secondary resources 1844.2.5 The uranium market 1864.2.6 Prospecting and exploration expenditures 2004.3 From conversion to fuel fabrication 2064.3.1 Conversion 2064.3.2 Enrichment 2144.3.3 Fuel design and fabrication 2224.3.4 Development prospects: advanced ATF fuels 2324.4 References 233Appendix: Ore Deposits and Mining Projects 235Sophie GABRIEL and Christian POLAKList of Authors 241Index 243Summary of Volume 2 245