Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Stefano Mazzuco is an Associate Professor in Demography at the Department of Statistical Sciences in the University of Padova, teaching both Demography and Statistics. He has also been a member of the PhD School in Statistics Board. He he has collaborated with the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the field of health inequality and its costs. He also has research interests in mortality pattern modelling, mainly focusing on age of death distribution modelling.Nico Keilman is Professor of Demography at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo. He has taught Demography, Statistics, and Econometrics and has held research positions at Statistics Netherlands, the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, and Statistics Norway. He has more than forty years of research experience in the fields of population forecasting, modelling marriage and household dynamics, and mathematical demography. He was the editor of Demographic Research (2006-2011), and is member of the editorial boards of European Studies of Population, Population (Paris) and Demografie (Praha).

• Chapter 1. Introduction­.- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts.- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions.- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects?.- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes.- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions.- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy.- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide.- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving?.- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland.- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components.- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurementof Age and Ageing.