Almut E. D. Veraart – författare

Power markets are undergoing a major transformation from gas and oil-fueled generation toward renewable electricity production from wind and solar sources. Simultaneously, there is an increasing demand for electrification, coupled with long-term climate-induced weather changes. The uncertainties confronting energy market participants require sophisticated modelling techniques to effectively understand risk, many of which are covered in this book.

Comprising invited papers by high-profile researchers, this volume examines the empirical aspects of forward and futures prices, uncovering patterns of noise factors in various European electricity markets. Additionally, it delves into the recent, influential classes of Hawkes and trawl processes, emphasizing their significance in energy markets. The impact of renewables on energy market prices is a pivotal concern for both producers and consumers. Mean-field games provide a powerful mathematical framework for this, and a dedicated chapter outlining their dynamics is included in the book. The book also explores structural financial products and their connection to climate risk as a risk management tool, underscoring the essential need for a comprehensive understanding of these products in the realm of "green finance," to which the energy industry is integral. Lastly, the book thoroughly analyzes spatial smoothing and power purchase (PPA) contracts, addressing central issues in energy system planning and financial operations.

Tailored for researchers, PhD students, and industry energy analysts, this volume equips readers with insights and tools to navigate the constantly evolving energy market landscape. It serves as a sequel to the earlier Quantitative Energy Finance book, featuring all-new chapters.

Collecting together twenty-three self-contained articles, this volume presents the current research of a number of renowned scientists in both probability theory and statistics as well as their various applications in economics, finance, the physics of wind-blown sand, queueing systems, risk assessment, turbulence and other areas.

The contributions are dedicated to and inspired by the research of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen who, since the early 1960s, has been and continues to be a very active and influential researcher working on a wide range of important problems.

The topics covered include, but are not limited to, econometrics, exponential families, Lévy processes and infinitely divisible distributions, limit theory, mathematical finance, random matrices, risk assessment, statistical inference for stochastic processes, stochastic analysis and optimal control, time series, and turbulence. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in probability, statistics and their applications.

Drawing on advanced probability theory, Ambit Stochastics is used to model stochastic processes which depend on both time and space. This monograph, the first on the subject, provides a reference for this burgeoning field, complete with the applications that have driven its development.

Unique to Ambit Stochastics are ambit sets, which allow the delimitation of space-time to a zone of interest, and ambit fields, which are particularly well-adapted to modelling stochastic volatility or intermittency. These attributes lend themselves notably to applications in the statistical theory of turbulence and financial econometrics. In addition to the theory and applications of Ambit Stochastics, the book also contains new theory on the simulation of ambit fields and a comprehensive stochastic integration theory for Volterra processes in a non-semimartingale context.

Written by pioneers in the subject, this book will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in empirical stochastic modelling.