Amin Saikal – författare

An incisive, authoritative account of the West’s failures in Afghanistan, from 9/11 to the fall of Kabul  In 1958, Richard Nixon described Afghanistan as “unconquerable.” On 15 August 2021, he was proven right. After twenty years of intervention, US and NATO forces retreated, enabling the Taliban to return to power. Tens of thousands were killed in the long, unwinnable war, and millions more were displaced—leaving the future of Afghanistan hanging in the balance.  Leading expert Amin Saikal traces the full story of America’s intervention, from 9/11 to the present crisis. After an initial swift military strike, the US became embroiled in a drawn-out struggle to change Afghanistan but failed to achieve its aims. Saikal shows how this failure was underlined by protracted attempts to capture Osama bin Laden, an inability to secure a viable government via “democracy promotion” efforts, and lack of wider strategy in the “war on terror.”  How to Lose a War offers an insightful account of one of the US’s most significant foreign policy failures—and considers its dire consequences for the people of Afghanistan.

An authoritative account of how and why the Islamic Republic has survived to become a critical player in the Middle East and the worldWhen Iranians overthrew their monarchy, rejecting a pro-Western shah in favor of an Islamic regime, many observers predicted that revolutionary turmoil would paralyze the country for decades to come. Yet forty years after the 1978–79 revolution, Iran has emerged as a critical player in the Middle East and the wider world, as demonstrated in part by the 2015 international nuclear agreement. In Iran Rising, renowned Iran specialist Amin Saikal describes how the country has managed to survive despite ongoing domestic struggles, Western sanctions, and countless other serious challenges.Saikal explores Iran’s recent history, beginning with the revolution, which set in motion a number of developments, including war with Iraq, precarious relations with Arab neighbors, and hostilities with Israel and the United States. He highlights the regime’s agility as it navigated a complex relationship with Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion, survived the Gulf wars, and handled fallout from the Iraqi and Syrian crises. Such success, Saikal maintains, stems from a distinctive political order, comprising both a supreme Islamic leader and an elected president and national assembly, which can fuse religious and nationalist assertiveness with pragmatic policy actions at home and abroad.But Iran’s accomplishments, including its nuclear development and ability to fight ISIS, have cost its people, who are desperately pressuring the ruling clerics for economic and social reforms—changes that might in turn influence the country’s foreign policy. Amid heightened global anxiety over alliances, terrorism, and nuclear threats, Iran Rising offers essential reading for understanding a country that, more than ever, is a force to watch.

This book is a study of regime change in an underdeveloped country with a weak state and strong autonomous social organizations. Regime change is in many countries a traumatic and disruptive experience, but few countries have paid as high a cost to retain traditionally accepted relationships of authority as has Afghanistan since the communist coup

This volume provides a useful analysis of the domestic dimension of Soviet foreign policy in Asia/Pacific. It considers the implications of Gorbachev's 1986 Vladivostok Initiative on Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the South Pacific.

This book is a study of regime change in an underdeveloped country with a weak state and strong autonomous social organizations. Regime change is in many countries a traumatic and disruptive experience, but few countries have paid as high a cost to retain traditionally accepted relationships of authority as has Afghanistan since the communist coup

This volume provides a useful analysis of the domestic dimension of Soviet foreign policy in Asia/Pacific. It considers the implications of Gorbachev's 1986 Vladivostok Initiative on Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the South Pacific.

The recent "Arab spring", with its popular uprisings in many Arab countries, has exposed the ambiguity at the heart of American promotion of democracy in the Middle East. The US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were packaged as democracy promotion, as heralding the beginning of a new phase in the politics of the Middle East when democracy would replace authoritarian regimes. Many of these authoritarian regimes, however, were sustained by US support. The recent popular uprisings threaten to bring democracy without promotion by the US, and threaten to overthrow regimes previously supported by the US and important for US strategy in the region – hence an initial hesitant response by the US to some of the uprisings. This book explores the contradictions in American democracy promotion in the Middle East. It discusses the principles underlying US democracy promotion, and the debates surrounding US policy formation, and examines the application of US democracy promotion in specific cases. It concludes by assessing the likely future patterns of US engagement with democratic reform in the Middle East.

Nearly ten years of bloodshed and political turmoil have followed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Soviet occupation not only proved a major trauma for the people of Afghanistan; invasion ended the growth in superpower dentents that had characterised the late 1970s; and in the Soviet Union the effects of escalating military costs and over 13,000 young military casualties have been felt at every level of society. The decision to withdraw combat forces under the provisions of the Geneva Accords of April 1988 is one of the most dramatic developments in the international system since the end of the Second World War. The effects of this decision will be felt not only in Afghanistan, but in the Soviet Union, in Southwest Asia, and in the wider world. The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan has been designed to explore the background to the decision to withdraw and its broader implications. The authors, all established specialists, examine the Geneva Accords; the future for post-withdrawal Afghanistan; and the impact of withdrawal on regional states, Soviet foreign and domestic policies, the Soviet armed forces, Sino-Soviet relations and world politics. They write from diverse disciplinary traditions, while bringing together a shared sensitivity to the issues which complicate the Afghan question.

Nearly ten years of bloodshed and political turmoil have followed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Soviet occupation not only proved a major trauma for the people of Afghanistan; invasion ended the growth in superpower dentents that had characterised the late 1970s; and in the Soviet Union the effects of escalating military costs and over 13,000 young military casualties have been felt at every level of society. The decision to withdraw combat forces under the provisions of the Geneva Accords of April 1988 is one of the most dramatic developments in the international system since the end of the Second World War. The effects of this decision will be felt not only in Afghanistan, but in the Soviet Union, in Southwest Asia, and in the wider world. The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan has been designed to explore the background to the decision to withdraw and its broader implications. The authors, all established specialists, examine the Geneva Accords; the future for post-withdrawal Afghanistan; and the impact of withdrawal on regional states, Soviet foreign and domestic policies, the Soviet armed forces, Sino-Soviet relations and world politics. They write from diverse disciplinary traditions, while bringing together a shared sensitivity to the issues which complicate the Afghan question.

Russia's renewal since the collapse of Communism has proved extraordinarily disturbed, and was marked by escalating conflict between President Yeltsin and the Congress of People's Deputies inherited from the Soviet era. This culminated in insurrection and violence on the streets, and when the main rebels were given amnesty in February 1994, the situation remained as uncertain as ever. The contributors to this book analyse a Russia which is searching for its future amid a maelstrom of complex forces - political, economic, socio-cultural, and international. They examine each of these elements of Russia's situation and investigate the role that each may play in shaping Russia's fortunes into the twenty-first century. Their overall conclusion is that, whatever the exact shape of the future, it will be determined both by elements embedded over many generations, and the influence of seven decades of communist rule.

A decade after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, the country continues to face a growing insurgency and crises of governance. The Afghanistan Conflict and Australia's Role tackles a number of critical dimensions-politics, society, military, and reconstruction-of this conflict from a range of perspectives. This book unpacks the nature and complexity of the conflict at national and international levels. It makes a critical assessment of the performance of President Hamid Karzai and his government, and the efforts made by the international community, the US and its NATO and non-NATO allies in particular, to stabilise, rebuild and secure Afghanistan as a viable state. In addition, it examines critically the role played by Australia in the conflict. The conclusions are far-reaching, with relevance to anyone interested in the interconnectedness of many contemporary issues-governance, democratisation, development, the role of the media, and counterinsurgency.

On November 4, 1979, when students occupied the American Embassy in Tehran and subsequently demanded that the United States return the Shah in exchange for hostages, the deposed Iranian ruler's regime became the focus of worldwide scrutiny and controversy. But, as Amin Saikal shows, this was far from the beginning of Iran's troubles. Saikal examines the rule of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, especially from 1953 to 1979, in the context of his regime's dependence on the United States and his dreams of transforming Iran into a world power. Saikal argues that, despite the Shah's early achievements, his goals and policies were full of inherent contradictions and weaknesses and ultimately failed to achieve their objectives. Based on government documents, published and unpublished literature, and interviews with officials in Iran, Britain, and the United States, The Rise and Fall of the Shah critically reviews the domestic and foreign policy objectives--as well as the behavior--of the Shah to explain not only what happened, but how and why.In a new introduction, Saikal reflects on what has happened in Iran since the fall of the Shah and relates Iran's past to its political present and future.

An authoritative account of how and why the Islamic Republic has survived to become a critical player in the Middle East and the worldWhen Iranians overthrew their pro-Western monarchy in favor of an Islamic regime in 1979, many observers predicted that revolutionary turmoil would paralyze the country for years to come. Yet in the decades since, Iran has emerged as a key player in the Middle East and the wider world. In Iran Rising, renowned Iran specialist Amin Saikal describes how the Islamic Republic has managed to survive despite ongoing domestic struggles, Western sanctions, and other serious challenges. Amid heightened global anxiety over alliances, terrorism, and nuclear threats, Iran Rising offers essential reading for understanding a country that, more than ever, is a force to watch.

Iran stands at a critical juncture in its history. In the era of Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Barack Obama, the Islamic Republic has a unique opportunity to regain its traditional greatness as a cradle of rich civilisation and culture, with a capacity to be a very influential and stabilising regional actor.In this incisive analysis, Amin Saikal, a leading expert on Iranian politics, traces Iran’s transition from pro-Western monarchy to Islamic Republic and explores the choices open to Rouhani’s moderate reformist government. The Islamic Republic has endured a difficult journey throughout its existence. But since Khomeini assumed power in 1979it has been characterised by a degree of exceptionalism, which has seen Iran lock horns with the United States and prove itself an effective and shrewdly calculating player on the international stage. Looking to the future, Saikal does not shy away from confronting the difficult choices facing Iran today. Failure to achieve reconciliation with the United States in the coming years, he argues, will not only have serious implications for Iran’s internal stability and for the future security of the Middle East, but also for America’s position within this volatile and unpredictable region.

Iran stands at a critical juncture in its history. In the era of Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Barack Obama, the Islamic Republic has a unique opportunity to regain its traditional greatness as a cradle of rich civilisation and culture, with a capacity to be a very influential and stabilising regional actor.In this incisive analysis, Amin Saikal, a leading expert on Iranian politics, traces Iran’s transition from pro-Western monarchy to Islamic Republic and explores the choices open to Rouhani’s moderate reformist government. The Islamic Republic has endured a difficult journey throughout its existence. But since Khomeini assumed power in 1979it has been characterised by a degree of exceptionalism, which has seen Iran lock horns with the United States and prove itself an effective and shrewdly calculating player on the international stage. Looking to the future, Saikal does not shy away from confronting the difficult choices facing Iran today. Failure to achieve reconciliation with the United States in the coming years, he argues, will not only have serious implications for Iran’s internal stability and for the future security of the Middle East, but also for America’s position within this volatile and unpredictable region.

Connecting a number of divergent perspectives on the current state of Afghanistan, this book outlines the country’s past and present instability and how this impacts and is conceptualised by its neighbours as well as by international heavyweights such as Russia, China and the United States. Given Afghanistan’s extensive cross-border ethnic, linguistic, sectarian and cultural ties with its neighbours – whatever transpires in the war-torn country is bound to have regional and global security implications. This study focuses on the current formal and informal defensive policies the states of Central Asia have in place in the event of the Afghan situation deteriorating further or the Taliban-led insurgency substantially widening their influence. The book also considers the positions and policy responses of three influential actors in the region: Russia, China and the United States. It assesses the convergence of interests between these great powers in stabilising Afghanistan, and their divergence of geopolitical objectives in the region.

Assuming a central place in Muslim life, the Qur'an speaks of one community of the faith, the umma. This unity of the faithful is recognised as the default aspiration of the believer, and in the modern era, intellectuals and political leaders have often vied both to define, and to lead it. Based on case studies of actors such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and ISIS, James Piscatori and Amin Saikal consider how some appeals to pan-Islam prove useful, yet other attempts at cross-border institutionalisation including the Sunni Caliphate or the modern Shi'i-inspired Islamic Revolution, founder on political self-interest and sectarian affiliations. Accompanied by a range of scriptural references to examine different interpretations of the umma, Piscatori and Saikal explore why, despite it meaning such widely different things, and its failure to be realised as a concrete project, neither the umma's popular symbolic appeal nor its influence on a politics of identity has diminished.

Assuming a central place in Muslim life, the Qur'an speaks of one community of the faith, the umma. This unity of the faithful is recognised as the default aspiration of the believer, and in the modern era, intellectuals and political leaders have often vied both to define, and to lead it. Based on case studies of actors such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and ISIS, James Piscatori and Amin Saikal consider how some appeals to pan-Islam prove useful, yet other attempts at cross-border institutionalisation including the Sunni Caliphate or the modern Shi'i-inspired Islamic Revolution, founder on political self-interest and sectarian affiliations. Accompanied by a range of scriptural references to examine different interpretations of the umma, Piscatori and Saikal explore why, despite it meaning such widely different things, and its failure to be realised as a concrete project, neither the umma's popular symbolic appeal nor its influence on a politics of identity has diminished.

This volume focuses on interpreting the changing domestic and regional dynamics in the Arab world and Iran.

The recent "Arab spring", with its popular uprisings in many Arab countries, has exposed the ambiguity at the heart of American promotion of democracy in the Middle East. The US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were packaged as democracy promotion, as heralding the beginning of a new phase in the politics of the Middle East when democracy would replace authoritarian regimes. Many of these authoritarian regimes, however, were sustained by US support. The recent popular uprisings threaten to bring democracy without promotion by the US, and threaten to overthrow regimes previously supported by the US and important for US strategy in the region – hence an initial hesitant response by the US to some of the uprisings. This book explores the contradictions in American democracy promotion in the Middle East. It discusses the principles underlying US democracy promotion, and the debates surrounding US policy formation, and examines the application of US democracy promotion in specific cases. It concludes by assessing the likely future patterns of US engagement with democratic reform in the Middle East.

The planned reductions in NATO troop numbers in Afghanistan through 2015 and a final withdrawal at the end of 2016 brings up numerous pressing questions about the security and national interests of not just Afghanistan, but of the broader region itself. The problem of a chaotic Afghanistan—or of an outright Taliban victory—is of great concern to not only immediate neighbors such as Iran, Pakistan, and the former Soviet Central Asian republics to the north, but also to those countries in the region with Afghanistan-related security or economic concerns, such as China and India. Further abroad, Russian, American and European interests and plans for dealing with the fallout from Afghanistan must also be taken into account as these major powers have enduring interests in Afghanistan and the region. This volume puts the prospects for short- and mid-term security dynamics at the core of the analysis, with each case being placed in its proper contemporary historical, economic, and political context. The book will offer a truly comprehensive, nuanced, and timely account of the security situation in and around Afghanistan.

The planned reductions in NATO troop numbers in Afghanistan through 2015 and a final withdrawal at the end of 2016 brings up numerous pressing questions about the security and national interests of not just Afghanistan, but of the broader region itself. The problem of a chaotic Afghanistan—or of an outright Taliban victory—is of great concern to not only immediate neighbors such as Iran, Pakistan, and the former Soviet Central Asian republics to the north, but also to those countries in the region with Afghanistan-related security or economic concerns, such as China and India. Further abroad, Russian, American and European interests and plans for dealing with the fallout from Afghanistan must also be taken into account as these major powers have enduring interests in Afghanistan and the region. This volume puts the prospects for short- and mid-term security dynamics at the core of the analysis, with each case being placed in its proper contemporary historical, economic, and political context. The book will offer a truly comprehensive, nuanced, and timely account of the security situation in and around Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's recent history is a sad one: Soviet invasion in 1979; Pakistan-backed internal conflict in the 1980s; the Taliban regime; and then the US invasion and the multi-national occupation after the events of 11 September 2001. Why does Afghanistan remain so vulnerable to domestic instability, foreign intervention and ideological extremism? In reconstructing the tempestuous narrative of modern Afghanistan, Amin Saikal provides a sweeping new understanding of its troubled past and present. He identifies the country's inability to develop stable political structures as stemming from the inter-dynastic rivalry (complicated by polygamy) that scarred successive royal families from the end of the eighteenth century until the pro-Soviet Communist coup of April 1978, all exacerbated by foreign interventions - feeding on fragile domestic structures - and the rise and fall of different ideological streams. Here, for the first time, is an up-to-date analysis of the era of the Taliban's rule, the effects of US domination in the country and attempts to negotiate a US withdrawal - including talks about talks with the Taliban themselves.This book, which sets the crisis of Afghanistan in the context of the country's modern history and social structures, makes a major and highly original contribution towards a better and more nuanced understanding of this ill-fated land. It is the definitive study of Afghanistan and its troubles in national, regional and international contexts from 1747 to the present day.

The West Asian states of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran have over the last few decades represented an arc of crisis. Characterised by fractured and dysfunctional political elites, fraught economic policies, and ideological struggles between the forces of authoritarianism and democratisation, neo-fundamentalism and pluralism, they embody a mosaic of ethnicities. Amin Saikal, a distinguished Afghan-born scholar of international affairs, provides a sweeping new understanding of the complex contemporary political and social instability encompassing the region. Saikal takes the reader on a journey throughout the history and current affairs of the four countries, highlighting how these states have been repeatedly invaded by major powers such as Tsarist and Soviet Russia, Great Britain and the United States. With each seeking, often in competition with one another, to redirect the domestic and foreign policy objectives and priorities of this region in accordance with their individual geopolitical and ideological preferences, the region finds itself today in a state of crisis.Critically comparing democratisation and counter-insurgency efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, and examining both recent Western intervention and the history of foreign influence in the region, this book looks at how US entanglement has affected Pakistani and Iranian domestic politics and foreign affairs. How has this influenced the success or failure of the occupation in Afghanistan and Iraq? What solutions can be taken to ensure regional security? Despite the critical importance of historical legacies in understanding present-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran, the past has often been overlooked or misunderstood by outsiders, with frequently serious consequences. An improved understanding of the region among foreign policymakers is imperative to enhancing prospects for stability and mutually beneficial international relations. Bearing this in mind, Zone of Crisis offers an informed and balanced overview on a troubled region. This book will fascinate general readers and prove essential reading for specialists.

The protests that swept across the Middle East and North Africa in late 2010 and 2011 confounded long-time observers of the region, in both the media and academia. After addressing the conditions in the Middle East and North Africa that produced these attempts at revolution, Amin Saikal and Amitav Acharya explore the global impact of the protests, both in terms of their ideological influence on opposition groups and the prospects for democratic transition in a variety of authoritarian and semi-authoritarian governments. Democracy and Reform in the Middle East and Asia commences with a comprehensive attempt to understand the cultural, economic and political background out of which the uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya emerged. It then expands outwards investigating the impact of the Arab uprisings on a regional level in other Middle Eastern and north African states such as Iran, Morocco and Algeria, and on a more global level in the Asian states of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the former Soviet Muslim republics.Saikal and Acharya bring a global perspective to the still-unfolding wave of calls for more meaningful political participation, which continues to make itself felt in the Middle East, to shed light upon the ideal role of both regional and international actors in promoting sustainable transitions from authoritarianism to democracy. This book not only offers explanations for why certain countries were more susceptible to the spread of the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, but also contrasts the organic and grassroots vehicles for democratization characteristic of the most recent Arab uprisings with the Western model of externally imposed regime change to illustrate the conditions necessary for a successful democratic transition. Touching on perennial issues in politics - for example, democracy, authoritarian rule and social protest - this book is vital for researchers of politics and international relations.

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the previously well-established organisation of world politics has been thrown into disarray. While during the Cold War, the bipolarity of the world gave other powers a defined structure within which to vie for power, influence and material wealth, the current global political landscape has been transformed by a diffusion of power. As a result, the world has seen the rise of sub-national or quasi-/non-state actors, such as Hezbollah, al-Qaeda and the movement that calls itself Islamic State, or ISIS. These dramatic geopolitical shifts have heavily impacted state-society relationships, power and authority in the international system. Weak States, Strong Societies analyses the effect of these developments on the new world order, arguing that the framework of 'weak state, strong society' appears even more applicable to the contemporary global landscape than it did during the Cold War. Focusing on a range of regional contexts, the book explores what constitutes a weak or strong state. It will be essential reading for specialists in politics and international relations, whether students or academic researchers.

Aiming to connect a number of divergent perspectives on the current state of Afghanistan, this book outlines the country’s past and present instability and how this impacts and is conceptualised by its neighbours as well as by international heavyweights such as Russia, China and the United States. Given Afghanistan’s extensive cross-border ethnic, linguistic, sectarian and cultural ties with its neighbours – whatever transpires in the war-torn country is bound to have regional and global security implications. This study focuses on the current formal and informal defensive policies the states of Central Asia may or may not have in place in the event of the Afghan situation deteriorating further or the Taliban-led insurgency substantially widening their influence. The book also considers the positions and policy responses of three influential actors in the region: Russia, China and the United States. It assesses the convergence of interests between these great powers in stabilising Afghanistan, and their divergence of geopolitical objectives in the region. With President Donald Trump unpredictably upheaving American policy in Afghanistan, an assertive Russia continuing to expand its influence across Central Asia and China seeking to have a wider economic and security role in the region, this book offers a timely assessment of an internationally-important topic.