Bertrand M. Roehner – författare

The main objective of this 2002 book is to show that behind the bewildering diversity of historical speculative episodes it is possible to find hidden regularities, thus preparing the way for a unified theory of market speculation. Speculative bubbles require the study of various episodes in order for a comparative perspective to be obtained and the analysis developed in this book follows a few simple but unconventional ideas. Investors are assumed to exhibit the same basic behavior during speculative episodes whether they trade stocks, real estate, or postage stamps. The author demonstrates how some of the basic concepts of dynamical system theory, such as the notions of impulse response, reaction times and frequency analysis, play an instrumental role in describing and predicting speculative behavior. This book will serve as a useful introduction for students of econophysics, and readers with a general interest in economics as seen from the perspective of physics.

The main objective of this 2002 book is to show that behind the bewildering diversity of historical speculative episodes it is possible to find hidden regularities, thus preparing the way for a unified theory of market speculation. Speculative bubbles require the study of various episodes in order for a comparative perspective to be obtained and the analysis developed in this book follows a few simple but unconventional ideas. Investors are assumed to exhibit the same basic behavior during speculative episodes whether they trade stocks, real estate, or postage stamps. The author demonstrates how some of the basic concepts of dynamical system theory, such as the notions of impulse response, reaction times and frequency analysis, play an instrumental role in describing and predicting speculative behavior. This book will serve as a useful introduction for students of econophysics, and readers with a general interest in economics as seen from the perspective of physics.

This book was first published in 2007. In recent years network science has become a dynamic and promising discipline; here it is extended to explore social and historical phenomena. While we experience social interactions every day, there is little quantitative knowledge on them. Instead we are often tempted to resort to fanciful explanations to explain social trends. Exogenous and endogenous interactions are often the key to understanding social phenomena and unravelling historical mysteries. This book begins by explaining how it is possible to bridge the gap between physics and sociology by exploring how network theory can apply to both. It then examines the macro- and micro-interactions in societies. The chapters are largely self-contained, allowing readers easily to access and understand the sections of most interest. This multi-disciplinary book will be fascinating to all physicists who have an interest in the human sciences and it will provide an alternative perspective to graduate students and researchers in sociology and econophysics.

This book was first published in 2007. In recent years network science has become a dynamic and promising discipline; here it is extended to explore social and historical phenomena. While we experience social interactions every day, there is little quantitative knowledge on them. Instead we are often tempted to resort to fanciful explanations to explain social trends. Exogenous and endogenous interactions are often the key to understanding social phenomena and unravelling historical mysteries. This book begins by explaining how it is possible to bridge the gap between physics and sociology by exploring how network theory can apply to both. It then examines the macro- and micro-interactions in societies. The chapters are largely self-contained, allowing readers easily to access and understand the sections of most interest. This multi-disciplinary book will be fascinating to all physicists who have an interest in the human sciences and it will provide an alternative perspective to graduate students and researchers in sociology and econophysics.

For the present edition four chapters have been added which form the fourth 1 part at the end of the book . Entitled The triumph of neoliberalism , the new partexplains how theimplementation worldwide oftheneoliberal agenda paved the way for the present crisis. As a matter of fact, the evidence provided in chapter 9 suggests that the present crisis already began to build up in the mid-1970s. It is around 1975 that (real) US wages reached a peak-level they would never regain in f- lowing decades. It was also around 1975 that the number of strikes began to fall sharply. The mid-1970s also marked the beginning of a huge in ow of immigrants (in large part of Hispanic origin) into the United States. The in ated supply of labor depressed wages and this had the consequence that consumption could be increased only by an unprecedented development of credit. Perhaps the reader may think that to blame the prevailing economic system for the unfolding depression is a fairly common and all too easy temptation.

For the present edition four chapters have been added which form the fourth 1 part at the end of the book . Entitled The triumph of neoliberalism , the new partexplains how theimplementation worldwide oftheneoliberal agenda paved the way for the present crisis. As a matter of fact, the evidence provided in chapter 9 suggests that the present crisis already began to build up in the mid-1970s. It is around 1975 that (real) US wages reached a peak-level they would never regain in f- lowing decades. It was also around 1975 that the number of strikes began to fall sharply. The mid-1970s also marked the beginning of a huge in ow of immigrants (in large part of Hispanic origin) into the United States. The in ated supply of labor depressed wages and this had the consequence that consumption could be increased only by an unprecedented development of credit. Perhaps the reader may think that to blame the prevailing economic system for the unfolding depression is a fairly common and all too easy temptation.

For the present edition four chapters have been added which form the fourth 1 part at the end of the book . Entitled The triumph of neoliberalism , the new partexplains how theimplementation worldwide oftheneoliberal agenda paved the way for the present crisis. As a matter of fact, the evidence provided in chapter 9 suggests that the present crisis already began to build up in the mid-1970s. It is around 1975 that (real) US wages reached a peak-level they would never regain in f- lowing decades. It was also around 1975 that the number of strikes began to fall sharply. The mid-1970s also marked the beginning of a huge in ow of immigrants (in large part of Hispanic origin) into the United States. The in ated supply of labor depressed wages and this had the consequence that consumption could be increased only by an unprecedented development of credit. Perhaps the reader may think that to blame the prevailing economic system for the unfolding depression is a fairly common and all too easy temptation.

Book titles, because they are compromises between concision and precision, provide but an approximate description of real content. For this book an al­ ternative and more comprehensive title would be: An investigation of spatial arbitrage as an introduction to the theory of commodity markets: trade and space-time patterns of price fluctuations. In this title, both the specificities and the limitations of our approach are emphasized. Firstly, our approach con­ centrates on the basic mechanisms of spatial arbitrage, leaving aside a number of accessory facets of international trade such as the impact of quotas or of ex­ change rates. Secondly, for the sake of simplicity we restrict ourselves to single commodity markets; the interrelationship of different goods on multi-commodity markets are only occasionally mentioned. The previous restrictions, however drastic they may at first appear delimit and define what can be considered as the core of the process of trade and of spatial transactions. Having thus simplified the object of our study, we are able to tackle the problem in a systematic way and to model spatial differentials along with their relationships to the volume of trade both in eqUilibrium and in non-equilibrium situations. As far as the subtitle of the book is concerned, we shall postpone the discussion of what is meant by the expression "analytical economics" until the concluding chapter.

Book titles, because they are compromises between concision and precision, provide but an approximate description of real content. For this book an al­ ternative and more comprehensive title would be: An investigation of spatial arbitrage as an introduction to the theory of commodity markets: trade and space-time patterns of price fluctuations. In this title, both the specificities and the limitations of our approach are emphasized. Firstly, our approach con­ centrates on the basic mechanisms of spatial arbitrage, leaving aside a number of accessory facets of international trade such as the impact of quotas or of ex­ change rates. Secondly, for the sake of simplicity we restrict ourselves to single commodity markets; the interrelationship of different goods on multi-commodity markets are only occasionally mentioned. The previous restrictions, however drastic they may at first appear delimit and define what can be considered as the core of the process of trade and of spatial transactions. Having thus simplified the object of our study, we are able to tackle the problem in a systematic way and to model spatial differentials along with their relationships to the volume of trade both in eqUilibrium and in non-equilibrium situations. As far as the subtitle of the book is concerned, we shall postpone the discussion of what is meant by the expression "analytical economics" until the concluding chapter.

Besides analyzing stock markets, the book considers a wide range of speculative markets for various items such as real estate, commodities , postage-stamps, antiquarian books. In particular, it highlights the following regularities:(i) During a speculative episode, the price of expensive items increases more than the price of less expensive items. This is referred to as price multiplier effect.(ii) Price peaks for stocks and most commodities on average follow a well-defined pattern that we call the sharp peak - flat through pattern; in contrast real estate price peaks follow a flat peak pattern.(iii) The stocks whose prices experience the strongest increase during a bull market, better resist during the subsequent bear market, an effect referred to as the resilience pattern. Such regularities pave the way for a mathematical theory of speculation. Being mainly empirical, the book is easy to read and does not require technical prerequisites in finance, economics or mathematics.