Cheryl L. Jennings - Böcker

An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.Seven easy-to-follow chapters provide intuitive explanations and in-depth coverage of key forecasting topics, including: Regression-based methods, heuristic smoothing methods, and general time series models Basic statistical tools used in analyzing time series data Metrics for evaluating forecast errors and methods for evaluating and tracking forecasting performanceover time Cross-section and time series regression data, least squares and maximum likelihood model fitting, model adequacy checking, prediction intervals, and weighted and generalized least squares Exponential smoothing techniques for time series with polynomial components and seasonal data Forecasting and prediction interval construction with a discussion on transfer function models as well as intervention modeling and analysis Multivariate time series problems, ARCH and GARCH models, and combinations of forecasts The ARIMA model approach with a discussion on how to identify and fit these models for non-seasonal and seasonal time seriesThe intricate role of computer software in successful time series analysis is acknowledged with the use of Minitab, JMP, and SAS software applications, which illustrate how the methods are imple-mented in practice. An extensive FTP site is available for readers to obtain data sets, Microsoft Office PowerPoint slides, and selected answers to problems in the book. Requiring only a basic working knowledge of statistics and complete with exercises at the end of each chapter as well as examples from a wide array of fields, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is an ideal text for forecasting and time series coursesat the advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate levels. The book also serves as an indispensablereference for practitioners in business, economics, engineering, statistics, mathematics, and the social, environmental, and life sciences.

Managing, controlling and improving quality is a critical activity in modern business organizations. Quality is directly linked to productivity, competitiveness, customer satisfaction, business growth, elimination of waste and other non-value added activities, and overall business success. Cycle time and throughput is just as important in a hospital emergency room as it is in a semiconductor factory. Defects and errors don't occur just in factories, they occur in transactional and service business such as banks, insurance companies, and hospitals. Even your local and state governments have a keen interest in improving service quality in operations such as issuing drivers licenses and motor vehicle registration. The U.S. Navy has had an intensive quality improvement program for many years. This book presents an organized approach to quality management, control, and improvement. Quality problems usually are the outcome of uncontrolled or excessive variability in product or service characteristics that are critical to the customer and statistical tools and other analytical methods play an important role in solving these problems. However, these techniques need to be implemented within a management structure that will ensure success. We focus on both the management structure and the statistical and analytical tools. Our approach to organizing and presenting this material is based on many years of teaching, research, and professional practice across a wide range of business and industrial settings.

Praise for the First Edition "…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and financeMore than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material  on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysisExpanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functionsA supplementary website featuring  PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.