David G. Carmichael - Böcker

Established Deterministic Investment Appraisal versus Uncertainty in InvestmentWhen it comes to investing in an infrastructure project, the conventional approach is to evaluate risk through a deterministic approach. Infrastructure Investment: An Engineering Perspective, however, takes on uncertainty in investment. Of interest to engineering consultants, government departments, financial institutions, or anyone involved in investment in infrastructure, this text provides the necessary tools for the analysis and appraisal of investment in infrastructure and other assets with uncertain futures. It factors in the finance and engineering of assets such as roads, buildings, bridges, dams, pipelines, railways, ports, seawalls, wastewater treatment facilities, and addresses future demand, operating costs, maintenance costs, and other lifetime and investment parameters in both financial and non-financial terms. It considers the impact of climate change and the possible use of adaptive and flexible solutions capable of responding to changed futures, as well as how such uncertainty affects the future performance of these investments. The book also incorporates illustrated case studies and Markov chains to model an investment.A pivotal work containing 11 chapters, this text provides: An original contribution to feasibility analysis under uncertaintyA systematic and ordered treatment of capital investment in infrastructureA structured flow, from a systematic treatment of conventional deterministic approaches through to a complete treatment incorporating uncertainty Infrastructure Investment: An Engineering Perspectivedetails investment analysis in the presence of uncertainty, and is beneficial to students, academics, and practitioners dealing with decision

Project management is widely used in the construction industry and is central to planning and controlling time, costs and resources. This book enables readers to perform more effectively, to understand project planning and control procedures and to gain an insight into the associated skills. Numerous case examples from diverse industries and exercises support and illustrate important concepts. The result is a new perspective for project managers: planning can be shown to be a systems synthesis or an inverse problem, which provides a way to reach a satisfactory solution, avoiding the time-consuming or impractical search for the optimal solution.

Project management is widely used in the construction industry and is central to planning and controlling time, costs and resources. This book enables readers to perform more effectively, to understand project planning and control procedures and to gain an insight into the associated skills. Numerous case examples from diverse industries and exercises support and illustrate important concepts. The result is a new perspective for project managers: planning can be shown to be a systems synthesis or an inverse problem, which provides a way to reach a satisfactory solution, avoiding the time-consuming or impractical search for the optimal solution.

Risk is related to the magnitude and uncertainty of an output (consequence or outcome); outputs take on different identities in different disciplines and situations. Risk is peculiar to each stakeholder and the measurement scale for risk depends on the stakeholder’s value system. Risk management provides a way of addressing the issues associated with the magnitude and uncertainty of outputs. This book provides a distinctively rational treatment of risk and risk management, based on a systems approach. The book’s treatment applies to all disciplines and sets out the principles of risk and risk management as well as looking at a range of applications and more specialist tools and approaches. The book: Develops a risk framework through a systems approach Offers a challenging and fresh approach for infrastructure engineering, construction and project management in generalThe book will suit students and practitioners alike.

Risk is related to the magnitude and uncertainty of an output (consequence or outcome); outputs take on different identities in different disciplines and situations. Risk is peculiar to each stakeholder and the measurement scale for risk depends on the stakeholder’s value system. Risk management provides a way of addressing the issues associated with the magnitude and uncertainty of outputs. This book provides a distinctively rational treatment of risk and risk management, based on a systems approach. The book’s treatment applies to all disciplines and sets out the principles of risk and risk management as well as looking at a range of applications and more specialist tools and approaches. The book: Develops a risk framework through a systems approach Offers a challenging and fresh approach for infrastructure engineering, construction and project management in generalThe book will suit students and practitioners alike.

Whatever their discipline, engineers are routinely called upon to develop solutions to all kinds of problems. To do so effectively, they need a systematic and disciplined approach that considers a range of alternatives, taking into account all relevant factors, before selecting the best solution. In Problem Solving for Engineers, David Carmichael demonstrates just such an approach involving problem definition, generation of alternative solutions, and, ultimately, the analysis and selection of a preferred solution. David Carmichael introduces the fundamental concepts needed to think systematically and undertake methodical problem solving. He argues that the most rational way to develop a framework for problem solving is by using a systems studies viewpoint. He then outlines systems methodology, modeling, and the various configurations for analysis, synthesis, and investigation. Building on this, the book details a systematic process for problem solving and demonstrates how problem solving and decision making lie within a systems synthesis configuration. Carefully designed as a self-learning resource, the book contains exercises throughout that reinforce the material and encourage readers to think and apply the concepts. It covers decision making in the presence of uncertainty and multiple criteria, including that involving sustainability with its blend of economic, social, and environmental considerations. It also characterizes and tackles the specific problem solving of management, planning, and design. The book provides, for the first time, a rational framework for problem solving with an engineering orientation.

Whatever their discipline, engineers are routinely called upon to develop solutions to all kinds of problems. To do so effectively, they need a systematic and disciplined approach that considers a range of alternatives, taking into account all relevant factors, before selecting the best solution. In Problem Solving for Engineers, David Carmichael demonstrates just such an approach involving problem definition, generation of alternative solutions, and, ultimately, the analysis and selection of a preferred solution. David Carmichael introduces the fundamental concepts needed to think systematically and undertake methodical problem solving. He argues that the most rational way to develop a framework for problem solving is by using a systems studies viewpoint. He then outlines systems methodology, modeling, and the various configurations for analysis, synthesis, and investigation. Building on this, the book details a systematic process for problem solving and demonstrates how problem solving and decision making lie within a systems synthesis configuration. Carefully designed as a self-learning resource, the book contains exercises throughout that reinforce the material and encourage readers to think and apply the concepts. It covers decision making in the presence of uncertainty and multiple criteria, including that involving sustainability with its blend of economic, social, and environmental considerations. It also characterizes and tackles the specific problem solving of management, planning, and design. The book provides, for the first time, a rational framework for problem solving with an engineering orientation.

Established Deterministic Investment Appraisal versus Uncertainty in InvestmentWhen it comes to investing in an infrastructure project, the conventional approach is to evaluate risk through a deterministic approach. Infrastructure Investment: An Engineering Perspective, however, takes on uncertainty in investment. Of interest to engineering consultants, government departments, financial institutions, or anyone involved in investment in infrastructure, this text provides the necessary tools for the analysis and appraisal of investment in infrastructure and other assets with uncertain futures. It factors in the finance and engineering of assets such as roads, buildings, bridges, dams, pipelines, railways, ports, seawalls, wastewater treatment facilities, and addresses future demand, operating costs, maintenance costs, and other lifetime and investment parameters in both financial and non-financial terms. It considers the impact of climate change and the possible use of adaptive and flexible solutions capable of responding to changed futures, as well as how such uncertainty affects the future performance of these investments. The book also incorporates illustrated case studies and Markov chains to model an investment.A pivotal work containing 11 chapters, this text provides: An original contribution to feasibility analysis under uncertaintyA systematic and ordered treatment of capital investment in infrastructureA structured flow, from a systematic treatment of conventional deterministic approaches through to a complete treatment incorporating uncertainty Infrastructure Investment: An Engineering Perspectivedetails investment analysis in the presence of uncertainty, and is beneficial to students, academics, and practitioners dealing with decision

This book presents a unifying approach to the valuation of incorporated flexibility. Flexibility, in general terms, recognizes future uncertainty and refers to being proactive now so as to secure the future possibility of being able to adapt, convert, or generally introduce a change, if it is worthwhile to do so at the time. That is, deliberate provision is made now in order to have the ability (but not the obligation) to adapt, convert, or change in the future; this change is discretionary, and depends on future circumstances. The applications demonstrated here cover engineering, building, housing, finance, economics, contracts, general management, and project management. The examples are as follows: designing/building features in infrastructure (including buildings and houses) such that the infrastructure can be adapted in response to future changes in climate, demographics, or usage; incorporating features in contracts such that the terms and conditions can be changed in response to changing situations; purchasing rights now such that options exist to buy or sell an asset in the future; structuring a financial investment agreement so that its terms and conditions can be changed in the future; structuring project payments to provide future guarantees of revenue if needed; and designing an operation such that it can be expanded, contracted, abandoned, switched, changed, delayed, or deferred in the future. The level of required mathematics is kept at a very modest level: an undergraduate knowledge of algebra and probability is all that is required. Numerical examples, accompanied by readily understandable diagrams, illustrate the methods outlined. The formulations are kept straightforward and accessible for practitioners and academics alike.