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26 produkter

Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Häftad, Engelska, 2026
142 kr
Skickas
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Häftad, Engelska, 2021
252 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Nyhet
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Häftad, Engelska, 2026
251 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
Art of Statistics
Learning from Data
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Häftad, Engelska, 2020
141 kr
Skickas
'A statistical national treasure' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2'Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force' Popular ScienceDo busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science.Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' Nature
Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Inbunden, Engelska, 2024
234 kr
Skickas
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
Art of Statistics
Learning from Data
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
E-bok
Engelska, 2019
121 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
'A statistical national treasure' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2'Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force' Popular ScienceDo busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science.Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' Nature
Covid By Numbers
Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Anthony Masters
E-bok
Engelska, 2021
165 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
'I couldn't imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane' Tim HarfordHow many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime?This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account.In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.
Covid By Numbers
Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Anthony Masters
Inbunden, Engelska, 2021
132 kr
Skickas
'I couldn't imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane' Tim HarfordHow many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime?This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account.In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.
Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
E-bok
Engelska, 2024
99 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Ljudbok
Engelska, 2024
173 kr
Lyssna direkt efter köp
Brought to you by Penguin. From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph© David Spiegelhalter 2024 (P) Penguin Audio 2024
Art of Statistics
Learning from Data
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Ljudbok
Engelska, 2024
173 kr
Lyssna direkt efter köp
Brought to you by Penguin. Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science.Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever.In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial.''A statistical national treasure'' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2''Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force'' Popular Science''Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world'' Nature© David Spiegelhalter 2019 (P) Penguin Audio 2024
The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers about Danger and Death
AvMichael Blastland,David Spiegelhalter
Häftad, Engelska
404 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
BUGS Book
A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Analysis
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Andrew Thomasm. fl.
E-bok
Engelska, 2012
855 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,S. Richardsonm. fl.
E-bok
Engelska, 1995
2 891 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France,
BUGS Book
A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Analysis
AvDavid Lunn,Chris Jacksonm. fl.
Inbunden, Engelska, 2017
3 301 kr
Skickas inom 10-15 vardagar
Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents complete coverage of all the functionalities of BUGS, including prediction, missing data, model criticism, and prior sensitivity. It also features a large number of worked examples and a wide range of applications from various disciplines.The book introduces regression models, techniques for criticism and comparison, and a wide range of modelling issues before going into the vital area of hierarchical models, one of the most common applications of Bayesian methods. It deals with essentials of modelling without getting bogged down in complexity. The book emphasises model criticism, model comparison, sensitivity analysis to alternative priors, and thoughtful choice of prior distributions all those aspects of the "art" of modelling that are easily overlooked in more theoretical expositions. More pragmatic than ideological, the authors systematically work through the large range of "tricks" that reveal the real power of the BUGS software, for example, dealing with missing data, censoring, grouped data, prediction, ranking, parameter constraints, and so on. Many of the examples are biostatistical, but they do not require domain knowledge and are generalisable to a wide range of other application areas. Full code and data for examples, exercises, and some solutions can be found on the book‘s website.
Teaching Probability
AvJenny Gage,David Spiegelhalter
Häftad, Engelska, 2016
407 kr
Skickas inom 7-10 vardagar
Written by leading subject specialists, Teaching Probability is designed to support teaching concepts in probability by providing a new approach to this difficult subject from a perspective not limited by a syllabus, giving teachers both theoretical and practical knowledge of an innovative way of teaching probability. This alternative approach to teaching probability focuses on the methods that teachers can apply to help their students engage with the topic using experiments and mathematical models to solve problems, considering how to overcome common misconceptions and the way in which probability can be communicated.
Teaching Probability Digital Edition
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Jenny Gage
E-bok
Engelska, 2016
278 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
This title focuses on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of probability. Written by leading subject specialists, Teaching Probability is designed to support teaching concepts in probability by providing a new approach to this difficult subject from a perspective not limited by a syllabus, giving teachers both theoretical and practical knowledge of an innovative way of teaching probability. This alternative approach to teaching probability focuses on the methods that teachers can apply to help their students engage with the topic using experiments and mathematical models to solve problems, considering how to overcome common misconceptions and the way in which probability can be communicated.
The Art of Uncertainty - How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Inbunden, Engelska, 2025
362 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
ForbesThe Economist
BUGS Book
A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Analysis
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Andrew Thomasm. fl.
E-bok
PDF, Engelska, 2012
824 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,S. Richardsonm. fl.
E-bok
PDF, Engelska, 1995
2 883 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France,
BUGS Book
A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Analysis
AvDavid Lunn,Chris Jacksonm. fl.
Häftad, Engelska, 2012
5,0 utav 5 stjärnor. Totalt antal röster:(1)
722 kr
Skickas inom 10-15 vardagar
Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents complete coverage of all the functionalities of BUGS, including prediction, missing data, model criticism, and prior sensitivity. It also features a large number of worked examples and a wide range of applications from various disciplines.The book introduces regression models, techniques for criticism and comparison, and a wide range of modelling issues before going into the vital area of hierarchical models, one of the most common applications of Bayesian methods. It deals with essentials of modelling without getting bogged down in complexity. The book emphasises model criticism, model comparison, sensitivity analysis to alternative priors, and thoughtful choice of prior distributions—all those aspects of the "art" of modelling that are easily overlooked in more theoretical expositions. More pragmatic than ideological, the authors systematically work through the large range of "tricks" that reveal the real power of the BUGS software, for example, dealing with missing data, censoring, grouped data, prediction, ranking, parameter constraints, and so on. Many of the examples are biostatistical, but they do not require domain knowledge and are generalisable to a wide range of other application areas. Full code and data for examples, exercises, and some solutions can be found on the book’s website.
Sex by Numbers
What Statistics Can Tell Us About Sexual Behaviour
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
E-bok
Engelska, 2015
152 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
Whatever society we live in, and however open-minded we like to think we are, when it comes to our sex lives we all like to keep a few secrets. But this makes the jobs of sexologists -- professionals who study sexual behaviour -- pretty difficult.Luckily, David Spiegelhalter, Professor of Risk at Cambridge University, is here to unravel the web of exaggerations, misdirections and downright lies that surround sex in modern society. Drawing on the Natsal survey, the widest survey of sexual behaviour since the Kinsey Report, he answers crucial questions such as what are we all doing? How often? And how has it changed?Accompanying a major Wellcome exhibition on the same subject, Sex by Numbers is an informed and entertaining look at the most enduring of human obsessions, from one-night stands to the seven-year itch.WELLCOME COLLECTIONWellcome Collection is a free museum and library that aims to challenge how we think and feel about health. Inspired by the medical objects and curiosities collected by Henry Wellcome, it connects science, medicine, life and art. Wellcome Collection exhibitions, events and books explore a diverse range of subjects, including consciousness, forensic medicine, emotions, sexology, identity and death. Wellcome Collection is part of Wellcome, a global charitable foundation that exists to improve health for everyone by helping great ideas to thrive, funding over 14,000 researchers and projects in more than 70 countries.wellcomecollection.org
Norm Chronicles
Stories and numbers about danger
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Michael Blastland
Häftad, Engelska, 2014
123 kr
Skickas inom 5-8 vardagar
Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.
Norm Chronicles
Stories and numbers about danger
AvDavid Spiegelhalter,Michael Blastland
E-bok
Engelska, 2013
111 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
Meet Norm. He''s 31, 5''9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn''t do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He''s a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life''s endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?Because chance and risk aren''t just about numbers - it''s about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn''t (and creator of BBC Radio 4''s More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.
Die Kunst der Statistik
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
Inbunden, Tyska, 2020
330 kr
Skickas inom 3-6 vardagar
El arte de la estadística
AvDavid Spiegelhalter
E-bok
Spanska, 2023
136 kr
Läs direkt efter köp
La guía definitiva del pensamiento estadístico.Las estadísticas están en todas partes, tanto en la ciencia como en los negocios, y en los medios de comunicación populares cientos de veces al día. En esta era de los grandes datos, un conocimiento básico de la estadística es más importante que nunca si queremos separar los hechos de la ficción, los adornos ostentosos de las pruebas en bruto, y más aún si esperamos participar en el futuro, en lugar de ser simples espectadores.En ''El arte de la estadística'', el reconocido estadístico David Spiegelhalter muestra a los oyentes cómo extraer conocimientos de los datos en bruto centrándose en los conceptos y las conexiones que hay detrás de las matemáticas. Basándose en ejemplos del mundo real para introducir cuestiones complejas, nos muestra cómo la estadística puede ayudarnos a determinar cuál fue el pasajero más afortunado del Titanic, si un famoso asesino en serie podría haber sido capturado antes y si el cribado del cáncer de ovarios es beneficioso.''El arte de la estadística'' no sólo nos muestra cómo los matemáticos han utilizado la ciencia estadística para resolver estos problemas, sino que también nos enseña cómo podemos pensar como estadísticos. Aprendemos a aclarar nuestras preguntas, suposiciones y expectativas al abordar un problema, y -quizás aún más importante- aprendemos a interpretar responsablemente las respuestas que recibimos.

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David Spiegelhalter – författare

Art of Uncertainty

The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data

The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

Art of Statistics

Art of Uncertainty

Art of Statistics

Covid By Numbers

Covid By Numbers

Art of Uncertainty

Art of Uncertainty

Art of Statistics

The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers about Danger and Death

BUGS Book

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice

BUGS Book

Teaching Probability

Teaching Probability Digital Edition

The Art of Uncertainty - How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

BUGS Book

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice

BUGS Book

Sex by Numbers

Norm Chronicles

Norm Chronicles

Die Kunst der Statistik

El arte de la estadística

Mina sidor

Mina sidor

Hjälp

Hjälp

Om Bokus

Om Bokus

Populärt

Populärt

Inspiration

Inspiration