Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe – författare

This book was initiated while the three major authors were at the Development Centre of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris, working on its program on economic growth, trade, and sustainability. We wish to thank the OECD Development Centre for its support. The book was completed during summer 2001 at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. We appreciate the resources and financial support CARD provided for publication of this work. Sandra Clarke provided technical editing of the manuscripts and oversaw the indexing of the book; Becky Olson prepared the camera-ready copy of the final manuscript. We thank them for their instrumental help in these last steps. Part of the work presented in this volume previously appeared in some form in journals. The analysis of Chile presented in Chapter 6 appeared as “Growth, Trade, Pollution and Natural-Resource Use in Chile. Evidence from an Economywide Model,” Agricultural Economics 19(1998): 87-97; and as “Trade Integration, Environmental Degradation, and Public Health in Chile: Assessing the Linkages,” Environment and Development Economics, in press. The work on Costa Rica and Indonesia summarised in Chapter 10 appeared as “Is There a Trade-off Between Trade Liberalisation and Pollution Abatement in Costa Rica? A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment,” Journal of Policy Modeling 20(1): 11-31; and as “The Environment and Welfare Implications of Trade and Tax Policy,” Journal of Development Economics 52(1997): 65-82.

This work takes a considerable step towards a better-informed debate between free-trader and environmentalist interests brought on in international trade negotiations. It presents results of an empirical investigation of the interaction between growth, international trade, and the environment in Chile, China, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Morocco, and Vietnam, using a common computable general equilibrium modelling approach. The book meshes analytical results, methodology, and detailed empirical analysis in a comprehensive appraisal of the interface between outward-oriented growth and the environment, with particular reference to the policy challenges faced by developing countries. The latter arguably have the greatest stake in successful co-ordination of free trade and domestic environmental policies to achieve higher living standards while protecting their environment. The conjecture of inevitable growth-environment trade-off is not sustained by the analysis. It provides guidance toward constructive reconciliation of economic and environmental aspirations.

This book is the first stocktaking of what the decarbonization of the world economy means for fossil fuel–dependent countries. These countries are the most exposed to the impacts of global climate policies and, at the same time, are often unprepared to manage them. They depend on the export of oil, gas, or coal; the use of carbon-intensive infrastructure (for example, refineries, petrochemicals, and coal power plants); or both. Fossil fuel–dependent countries face financial, fiscal, and macro-structural risks from the transition of the global economy away from carbon-intensive fuels and the value chains based on them. This book focuses on managing these transition risks and harnessing related opportunities. Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World identifies multiple strategies that fossil fuel–dependent countries can pursue to navigate the turbulent waters of a low-carbon transition. The policy and investment choices to be made in the next decade will determine these countries' degree of exposure and overall resilience. Abandoning their comfort zones and developing completely new skills and capabilities in a time frame consistent with the Paris Agreement on climate change is a daunting challenge and requires long-term revenue visibility and consistent policy leadership. This book proposes a constructive framework for climate strategies for fossil fuel–dependent countries based on new approaches to diversification and international climate cooperation. Climate policy leaders share responsibility for creating room for all countries to contribute to the goals of the Paris Agreement, taking into account the specific vulnerabilities and opportunities each country faces.