Elizabeth Hervey Stephen - Böcker

At this time it is impossible to know when, or the conditions under which, North and South Korea might be reunified. This exploratory report, though, analyzes the current demographic characteristics of the two countries and sets out potential scenarios given conditions that might exist during and following reunification. The South Korean government clearly prefers that an economic integration precede political integration; a complete collapse of the North Korean government is the least desired outcome. The demographic outlook for a unified peninsula will be closely tied with the pace and form of political and economic integration. For the purpose of this paper, it is assumed that the process will be gradual and peaceful, as desired by the South Korean government and the international community--what Holger Wolf has termed the “gradualist scenario.” While analysis to date has examined military, economic, and geopolitical dimensions of the reunification process and end state, it is also critical for planners and policymakers to understand the current and potential demographic dynamics of the peninsula.

South Korea’s Demographic Dividend: Echoes of the Past or Prologue to the Future? weaves together the compelling story of social and demographic effects of the economic miracle in South Korea. This exploration of social change examines the demographic dividend: a window of time when a large percentage of a country’s population is in the working ages as a result of low fertility and declining mortality. The working-age population benefits from a relatively small dependent population as the size of the elderly cohort is small and the percentage of children is decreasing. This allows the working-age cohort to amass savings and increase productivity. But what happens when that demographic dividend comes to a close and the working age population must support a large elderly population?For centuries South Koreans relied on the intergenerational Confucian contract whereby parents supported children with the reciprocal expectation that children would support their parents in their older years. In South Korea’s Demographic Dividend Dr. Stephen examines what happens to families—and the larger society— when this contract is broken. The book concludes with proposed policies that address the maintenance of social cohesion in light of structural changes in the personal and public spheres as a result of Korea’s unprecedented economic growth.