Erik J Dahl – författare

The world is facing an ever-changing array of complex threats to international security. Yet intelligence agencies have a mixed record of anticipating these threats, while decision makers have an equally mixed record of effectively acting on predictive intelligence when offered. Sometimes intelligence has provided a useful warning, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but at other times it has failed to anticipate critical events, such as the progress of fighting in Ukraine or the likelihood that a mob would carry out a deadly assault on the US Capitol building. And at still other times intelligence agencies appear to have provided warning, and yet policy makers failed to listen, such as before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

This book casts new light on past failures and suggests new frameworks for thinking about future threats and challenges. Written for academics and practitioners, it answers key questions about how intelligence can better inform policy makers and, in turn, help them anticipate and act upon future threats.

The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism.

The world is facing an ever-changing array of complex threats to international security. Yet intelligence agencies have a mixed record of anticipating these threats, while decision makers have an equally mixed record of effectively acting on predictive intelligence when offered. Sometimes intelligence has provided a useful warning, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but at other times it has failed to anticipate critical events, such as the progress of fighting in Ukraine or the likelihood that a mob would carry out a deadly assault on the US Capitol building. And at still other times intelligence agencies appear to have provided warning, and yet policy makers failed to listen, such as before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

This book casts new light on past failures and suggests new frameworks for thinking about future threats and challenges. Written for academics and practitioners, it answers key questions about how intelligence can better inform policy makers and, in turn, help them anticipate and act upon future threats.

The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism.

How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies?

Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff.

The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.