Fang Cai – författare

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions.This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

HUANG Yiping is Professor of Economics at the China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, China. He is also an adjunct professor at the Australian National University and a member of the China Finance 40 Forum. His current research focuses on macroeconomic policy, international finance and rural development.CAI Fang is Director, Professor and Fellow at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. He serves as Vice Chairman of the China Population Association. His current research focuses on China’s labor migration, population and development, economic reform, income distribution and poverty.

This volume first examines projected demographic changes that will affect the economic well-being of China's rural elderly over the next twenty years, taking into account both China's sharp demographic transition and the continued migration of young adults into cities. The projected old age dependency ratio of 34 percent in China's rural areas by 2030 suggests that support of the elderly is likely to be an increasing burden on China's families over the next twenty years.The book next documents the sources of financial support, poverty incidence and vulnerability of the rural elderly since the early 1990s. China's rural elderly have been consistently poorer and more vulnerable to poverty than both working age households and the urban elderly. In contrast to the urban elderly who frequently have pension support, the rural elderly typically rely either on their own labor income or financial support from adult children. A substantial share of China’s rural elderly continue to work well beyond the age 70, but labor as a primary source of support falls sharply during their 60s. Additional evidence suggests that the rural elderly work well beyond 60 out of necessity and only stop working when physically incapacitated. While average transfers from adult children to elderly parents are sufficient to keep them out of poverty, adult migrant children with uncertain income create the risk that transfers will not be sufficient to keep some rural elderly out of poverty.The final sections of the book review experiences with rural pensions during the 1990s and 2000s and draws out the lessons which have informed the design of a new national rural pension scheme. Among the many issues discussed, the report highlights the importance of providing incentives for participation in the pension scheme and important issues related to the portability of pensions for a mobile population.

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions.This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

HUANG Yiping is Professor of Economics at the China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, China. He is also an adjunct professor at the Australian National University and a member of the China Finance 40 Forum. His current research focuses on macroeconomic policy, international finance and rural development.CAI Fang is Director, Professor and Fellow at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. He serves as Vice Chairman of the China Population Association. His current research focuses on China’s labor migration, population and development, economic reform, income distribution and poverty.

Die von der Weltgesundheitsorganisation als COVID-19 bezeichnete Atemwegserkrankung entwickelte sich zu einer globalen Pandemie. Fast alle Länder und Regionen auf der Welt und Millionen von Menschen waren betro en. Es kam zu einer Gesundheitskrise, wie es sie seit hundert Jahren nicht gegeben hat. Durch die Pandemie wurde ein enormer Schock für die Wirtschaft ausgelöst. Sowohl einzelne Länder als auch die Welt insgesamt mussten von ihrem bisherigen Entwicklungspfad abweichen, mit schweren Folgen für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Sowohl in Bezug auf die Bewältigung der Pandemie selbst als auch hinsichtlich der Wiederbelebung der Wirtschaft musste sich China auf einen „Dauerkrieg" einstellen, um entsprechende Reaktionspläne zu erarbeiten und umzusetzen. Das Buch betrachtet unter einer Vielzahl von Aspekten die Auswirkungen der CoronaPandemie auf Chinas Wirtschaf von der Angebots- und der Nachfrageseite: ländliche Entwicklung, wirtschaftliche Sektoren, Lieferketten, Beschäftigung und die Wechselwirkung von Chinas Wirtschaft und Weltwirtschaft. Thematisiert werden darüber hinaus das ö entliche Gesundheitswesen und die Bedeutung von Risikoprävention und-kontrolle.

This book explains why China’s opening-up policy can boost the rapid growth of its economy. Based on concrete facts and economic logic, it offers a brief introduction to the history of China’s successful development, which has unprecedentedly helped improve people’s lives and community welfare over the past 30 years. In light of the newly emerging problems, the author assesses the different stages of China’s economic development and new challenges, illustrating how the country’s sustainable growth could be achieved through further reforms so as to complete the transition from a middle-income to high-income country. He moves on to discuss the lessons learned from China’s experiences and summarizes their significance for other developing countries, while also clarifying popular misconceptions such as the “China Menace” and “Theory of China’s Collapse.” Taking the logic of economic development as a basis and employing economic norm analysis methods, the book describes China’s economic miracle in plain but vivid language and attempts to enrich the economic development theory through China’s experience.

This book explains why China’s opening-up policy can boost the rapid growth of its economy. Based on concrete facts and economic logic, it offers a brief introduction to the history of China’s successful development, which has unprecedentedly helped improve people’s lives and community welfare over the past 30 years. In light of the newly emerging problems, the author assesses the different stages of China’s economic development and new challenges, illustrating how the country’s sustainable growth could be achieved through further reforms so as to complete the transition from a middle-income to high-income country. He moves on to discuss the lessons learned from China’s experiences and summarizes their significance for other developing countries, while also clarifying popular misconceptions such as the “China Menace” and “Theory of China’s Collapse.” Taking the logic of economic development as a basis and employing economic norm analysis methods, the book describes China’s economic miracle in plain but vivid language and attempts to enrich the economic development theory through China’s experience.

This 2007 yearbook examines recent developments in the Chinese demographic transition and its implications, especially for the labor market. After many years of low population growth, China has reached the beginning stage of the Lewis Turning Point - the shift from a labor surplus economy to one of labor shortages - in the typical dualist model of rural and urban labor supply. This has brought pressures for increasing wages for the unskilled labor and has important implications for national development strategy and related policies. This yearbook is a collection of important articles by demographers and economists from CASS and other top research and policy institutes in China. Several of the articles in this volume are based on major labor and population surveys carried out in recent years.

This English-language volume is an edited collection of articles from the 2010 Chinese-language volume of the Green Book of Population and Labor. It examines recent developments in the Chinese demographic transition and its implications, especially for the labor market. The global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 impacted the Chinese labor market during and after its occurrence; it hit the real economy and caused lay-offs for urban workers and a mass exodus of migrant workers from the non-agricultural workplace. The Chinese economy recovered quickly, thanks to the government’s fiscal stimulus package. It was impressive to see social protection programs implemented by the central and local governments with the interests of vulnerable people in mind. This volume intends to draw some lessons from the experiences and to discuss the trends of the labor market and social protection in the post-crisis period by focusing on three issues: policy measures, challenges to future growth, and the vulnerability of factions within the labor market.

Transforming the Chinese Economy is a translated collection of articles providing a look at how scholars in China have been assessing their country's recent economic history. This volume, as well as the others in the SSRC series, provide western scholars with an accessible English language look at the state of current Chinese scholarship, and as such, do not simply provide information for the direct study of economic issues, but also for meta-level analysis of the interplay of China's policy, scholarship, and economy. Specifc topics include banking and finance, inequality of growth, and women's role in the workforce.

This English-language volume is an edited collection of articles selected from the 2011 and 2012 Chinese-language volumes of the Green Book of Population and Labor. This volume starts with a chapter that explores the trajectory and future of China's demographic changes, as well as the role population projections should play in population policy through a comparison of data from the Sixth Population Census conducted in China and the United Nations population projection. Other topics discussed in this volume include changes in fertility and their implications to the labor market; demographic transition and its contribution to economic growth; employment structure and its problems; and reform of the labor market. This volume intends to draw lessons from the experiences and discuss trends of the labor market and social protection.Chinese Research Perspectives on Population and Labor is a co-publication between Brill and Social Sciences Academic Press (China).

This timely volume on China’s economic “New Normal” features articles by leading scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other research institutions across the country.

This timely volume on China’s economic “New Normal” features articles by leading scholars from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other research institutions across the country.

It tells China’s story with regard to twelve aspects: the reform path, opening up, macro-economy, regional development, the “three rural” policy, poverty alleviation, industrial development, scientific and technological leadership, ecological civilization, human resources, social security, and income distribution.

It tells China’s story with regard to twelve aspects: the reform path, opening up, macro-economy, regional development, the “three rural” policy, poverty alleviation, industrial development, scientific and technological leadership, ecological civilization, human resources, social security, and income distribution.

This book analyzes the characteristics of China's economic operation in the new era and explores Xi's thought on China's development. and the fourth part examines the purpose, motivation, necessary conditions and measurement scale of development according to the new development concept;

This book analyzes the characteristics of China's economic operation in the new era and explores Xi's thought on China's development. and the fourth part examines the purpose, motivation, necessary conditions and measurement scale of development according to the new development concept;

This book focuses on the global economy, oil industry, natural gas industry, hydrogen energy industry, wind power industry, and low-carbon market in the post-pandemic era of China and the whole world.

This book focuses on the global economy, oil industry, natural gas industry, hydrogen energy industry, wind power industry, and low-carbon market in the post-pandemic era of China and the whole world. It provides the overview of the China's energy economy development in 2021 and has an in-depth analysis of the future development trends of the oil and gas and new energy industries. It aims to present Chinese insights on the development of the energy industry of China and the world.

This book aims at China's economic and social development, which has embarked on a new journey. It collects more than 20 major research achievements of researchers in relevant fields of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. These topics cover rural revitalization and anti-poverty, industrialization and manufacturing transformation, service industry upgrading, fiscal and taxation system and fiscal sustainability, major financial reform, industry and competition policy, ownership structure, new pattern of opening up, digital economy, innovation driven, financial stability, macro-control, new urbanization, regional development, ecological environment, aging population, labor market, income distribution, social governance, people's livelihood, social security, the rule of law, cultural power, and other major issues. This book helps people from all walks of life better understand and grasp the new trends, opportunities, and challenges of China's economic and social development in thefuture and provides useful reference for thinking about China's medium and long-term development strategy and development path.

This book aims at China's economic and social development, which has embarked on a new journey. It collects more than 20 major research achievements of researchers in relevant fields of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. These topics cover rural revitalization and anti-poverty, industrialization and manufacturing transformation, service industry upgrading, fiscal and taxation system and fiscal sustainability, major financial reform, industry and competition policy, ownership structure, new pattern of opening up, digital economy, innovation driven, financial stability, macro-control, new urbanization, regional development, ecological environment, aging population, labor market, income distribution, social governance, people's livelihood, social security, the rule of law, cultural power, and other major issues. This book helps people from all walks of life better understand and grasp the new trends, opportunities, and challenges of China's economic and social development in thefuture and provides useful reference for thinking about China's medium and long-term development strategy and development path.

This book reviews and examines the reform and opening up in China from 1978 to 2011. It analyzes how China avoided to fall into the middle-income trap over those 33 years. The book makes a deep analysis of understanding how Chinese economy became a miracle in the world economic history and its development stages, as well as the overseas erroneous understanding of the existence of Chinese economy. The author analyzes from three aspects: how to break the “impossible triangle”, how to achieve middle-to-high speed growth in L model, and how to release a new dividend of urbanization. After Chinese economy entered the Lewis turning point, China faced the dilemma of labor transformation and the disappearance of demographic dividend, the demographic dividend turned to the reform dividend. The author points out and suggests that a new round of growth should be achieved by improving the total factor productivity in order to find a new way for the Chinese economy. This book plays an important role of comprehending Chinese economy under current complex economic situation.This book helps readers to understand Chinese economy from many aspects: impossible triangle, L model growth, Malthus trap, dual economy, aging problem, demographic dividend, reform dividend, trap of middle income, globalization, etc. The author as an economist aims for the public explaining the professional knowledge in a concise and easy way. This book delivers the information of discerning and understanding the economic trend, and predicting the future.

This book reviews and examines the reform and opening up in China from 1978 to 2011. It analyzes how China avoided to fall into the middle-income trap over those 33 years. The book makes a deep analysis of understanding how Chinese economy became a miracle in the world economic history and its development stages, as well as the overseas erroneous understanding of the existence of Chinese economy. The author analyzes from three aspects: how to break the “impossible triangle”, how to achieve middle-to-high speed growth in L model, and how to release a new dividend of urbanization. After Chinese economy entered the Lewis turning point, China faced the dilemma of labor transformation and the disappearance of demographic dividend, the demographic dividend turned to the reform dividend. The author points out and suggests that a new round of growth should be achieved by improving the total factor productivity in order to find a new way for the Chinese economy. This book plays an important role of comprehending Chinese economy under current complex economic situation.This book helps readers to understand Chinese economy from many aspects: impossible triangle, L model growth, Malthus trap, dual economy, aging problem, demographic dividend, reform dividend, trap of middle income, globalization, etc. The author as an economist aims for the public explaining the professional knowledge in a concise and easy way. This book delivers the information of discerning and understanding the economic trend, and predicting the future.

This book presents empirical observations and theoretical thinking of the fundamental changes in the Chinese economy. It starts with a warning of the arrival of the Lewis Turning Point, which is empirically proven by disappearance of surplus labor force and a rapid increase in wages of unskilled workers. It further reveals that China's rapid population-aging trend is diminishing the demographic dividend that has kept China's economic growth rate high. Subsequently, it touches upon employment challenges that arise after reaching the Lewis Turning Point, further propelling urbanization, a balanced regional development, and so on. Finally, it introduces middle-income trap which is one of the biggest challenges China is facing, followed by recommendation of policies for the Chinese government to tackle the challenges ahead.This book should be of great interest to graduates, undergraduates, researchers and specialists who follow closely the economic development and demographic transition of China, the world's most populous country.