Florian Meyer – författare

Projektarbeit aus dem Jahr 2020 im Fachbereich VWL - Finanzwissenschaft, Note: 1,7, Universität Bremen, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Diese Arbeit erklärt die wichtigsten Entwicklungsschritte von einfachen neuronalen Netzen bis hin zu den LSTM Netzwerken und arbeitet Vor- und Nachteile heraus. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden die Ergebnisse des Papiers von Fischer/Krauss (2017) kritisch gewürdigt. Die Resultate in dieser Untersuchung weichen zum Teil deutlich von denen des Fischer/Krauss Papieres ab.In dieser Arbeit werden selektiv die Zeiträume der Jahre 1994, 2001, 2008 und 2015 untersucht. Lediglich in den untersuchten Jahren 1994 und 2001 konnte gegenüber dem S&P500 eine signifikante Outperformance durch das LSTM-Networks, mit durchschnittlich täglichen Renditen von 0,022 respektive 0,0074 festgestellt werden. Eine allgemeingültige Prognosefähigkeit des Modells oder eine Überlegenheit zu etwaigen BenchmarkModellen lässt sicher allerdings nicht darstellen. Das gewählte Benchmark-Modell, die logistische Regression, liefert in 1994 ähnlich gute Ergebnisse wie das LSTM. Da die Daten und Methoden denen von Fischer/Krauss (2017) folgen, gilt es eine Erklärung der differenten Resultate zu finden. Machine Learning ist seit den 90er Jahren ein verbreitetes Thema der Finanzwissenschaft und Informatik. Mit der neuen Big Data Welle kommt das mittlerweile in die Jahre gekommene Wissenschaftsgebiet wieder in den Fokus der Wissenschaft. Die Gründe liegen auf der Hand. Gerade die besseren Rechenkapazitäten und größeren Mengen an öffentlich zugänglichen Kapitalmarktdaten gestatten es, Machine Learning erneut auf den Prüfstand zu stellen. Dies führte zu einer erneuten Prominenz des Forschungsgebietes, des Deep Learning.Das Papier von den Autoren Fischer/Krauss (2017) zum Thema Aktienmarktprognose mittels neuronaler Netze sorgte aufgrund ihrer Ergebnisse für Aufsehen. Die Autoren nutzen in ihrer Arbeit zur Prognose von Aktienmarktrenditen insbesondere Long Short-Term Memory Netzwerke (LSTM-Networks). Diese zählen zu den fortgeschrittensten Methoden in Bereich des Machine Learning. In dem Papier schaffen sie es ausschließlich mittels vergangener Renditen, den Benchmark-Index S&P500 mehr als deutlich zu schlagen. Diese Ergebnisse stehen im Konflikt mit der von Eugene Fama entwickelten Effizienz-Markt-Hypothese, als das sich aus vergangen Kursdaten keine nützlichen Informationen für die Zukunft ableiten lassen.

How did the (old) Hanyu Shuiping Kaoshi (HSK) assess the Chinese proficiency of non-native speakers of Chinese? What inferences can be derived from HSK test taker scores, especially from Western test takers? How difficult is it to learn Chinese according to the HSK? Thirty years of research have been synthesized into an argument-based approach for validating the most widespread test for Chinese as a foreign language. In addition, the author has analyzed the scores of a sample of over 250 German test takers in order to investigate how many hours German natives needed on average to study for reaching a specific HSK level. This work also extensively discusses validation theory for psychological testing, and it demonstrates how to put an argument-based approach to validation into practice.

Essay from the year 2010 in the subject Politics - Topic: Development Politics, University of Birmingham (Deprtament of Political Science and International Studies), course: International Political Economy, language: English, abstract: Due to the numerous changes, dynamics and developments in our world in the recent decades, the discussion about the existence, forms, processes, dynamics, actors and the effectiveness of global governance, beyond inter-state cooperation, has continuously intensified. Although there is almost no debate about the simple existence of global governance, there are widespread academic discussions about how to understand the relations between the variety of involved actors and the dynamics they create amongst different issue areas within the global system. This paper discusses the questions if there actually is such a thing as global governance and if it can ever be effective? Therefore, I will first take a short look at some basic definitions, the involved actors and their possible roles within global governance arrangements before I examine different approaches towards the existence, functioning, effectiveness and limitations of global governance. The main idea in this context is to give a brief introduction to current issues, questions and solutions in the actual global governance debate.

Essay from the year 2010 in the subject Politics - Region: Africa, grade: 1, University of Birmingham (International Development Department), course: Development Politics, language: English, abstract: The analysis of state failure and state collapse has gained widespread academic interest over the last years and combines various academic disciplines related to the reasons of non-functioning states and the variables which lead to state failure. This essay will try to contribute to the actual debate by examining to what extent patterns of political behavior can be used to explain state failure within developing states and, more particular, state collapse in Somalia. Therefore, this essay will first discuss theoretical approaches trying to explain state failure and the differences between state failure and state collapse. I will argue that the complexity of state failure and state collapse leads to an ongoing debate about the nature and perception of these states which is often misleading. Whereas the dominant factors which cause state failure are often found in bad governance and bad leadership, other factors such as the role of external patterns of political behavior during colonial times as well as during the cold war fostered weak state structures and enabled African rulers to develop a different understanding of the state as a tool for personal ends that lead to a logic of self-destructive despotism prior to state collapse. In a second step the article examines the case of Somalia in further detail, trying to analyze causes of state collapse and the impact of political behavior that led to state failure within the Somali context. I will argue that on the one hand patterns of political behavior by foreign actors are one main cause of Somali state collapse. On the other hand, the rule of Siyaad Barre and his patterns of political behavior followed a logic of self-destructive despotism which contributed largely to the fact that Somalia collapsed in 1991, when Barre was ousted. Finally, I will draw a conclusion based on the presented analysis to what extent patterns of political behavior within development states can explain state failure.

Master's Thesis from the year 2010 in the subject Politics - Topic: Development Politics, grade: 1,0, University of Birmingham (International Development Department), language: English, abstract: This paper deals with the aid instrument budget support and discusses its strengths and weaknesses in terms of the expected effects of the instrument in areas such as donor harmonisation, ownership, aid effectiveness and accountability. By presenting the international context in which the rise of program-based approaches, such as budget support, took place and by summarizing the actual debate about the instrument and its effectiveness, the paper elaborates a set of assumptions and hypothesises which are affecting the overall performance of the instrument and have to be addressed based on the specific country context. In consequence, it examines and tests these assumptions by critically analyzing the Multi Donor Budget Support in Ghana based on a field study conducted in Accra in July 2010. The central argument of the paper is that general budget support can be one of the most effective aid instruments available at the time, as long as problems inherent to the instrument are addressed and tackled to prevent negative side effects. It comes to the conclusion that the MDBS in Ghana, although there is still room for improvement and entry points for critique, is a functioning example on how to acknowledge and implement the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and the Accra Agenda for Action. Especially the quality of the policy dialogue and initiatives taken to avoid negative side effects in areas such as domestic as well as mutual accountability and ownership could become valuable examples for others to follow.

Essay from the year 2010 in the subject Politics - Topic: Development Politics, grade: 1,0, University of Birmingham (Department of Political Science and International Studies), course: International Political Economy, language: English, abstract: With the beginning of the 21st century and the rise of so called new emerging donors within International Development Assistance, questions to what extent these new actors change the existing notions of development in general gained widespread interest among scholars from various academic backgrounds. Ranging from announcements of massive change which will affect the development paradigm as a whole to more nuanced analysis's of the impact of these newly emerging actors , the academic discourse provides various answers to these questions. The aim of this article will be to examine and analyze the scope and significance of new emerging donors by examining in a first step who these new emerging donors are and what their actual impact on current development assistance looks like. I will argue that the term new emerging donors is misleading in terms of promoting the idea of a coherent group which is actually very diverse and in terms of the fact that these donors are considered to be new, although most of them have a long history in providing aid to other countries. In a second step, this paper will focus on the example of China as the biggest new emerging donor by examining the underlying principles of Chinese development assistance, differences to the western donor community and the possible impact of Chinese aid on development in general and especially in Africa. I will argue that Chinese aid is largely intertwined with economic self-interests and its national foreign policy, which leads to a mixed picture concerning its outcomes and effects on development in general, although the overall results within the developing countries are rather successful. Furthermore, I will state that the existing flaws within the western development model as well as the situation in many African countries favor the recent success of Chinese aid and made it possible in the first place. Finally, I will draw a conclusion based on the presented analysis to what extent new emerging donors will change the existing notions of development.