Fred Wenstøp – författare

This book integrates decision-making and environmental science. For ecologists it will bridge the gap to economics. For practitioners in environmental economics and management it will be a major reference book. It probably contains the largest collection available of expressions and basic equations that are used in environmental sciences. Applying these expressions as "rules-of-thumb" will give participants in a decision-making process a common platform for discussion and arbitration. To make the text comfortable to read, the book is organized in disciplines, but it also includes 13 applications that draw on all subjects in the book, and where cross-references are extensively used. The applications that range from siting of paper mills to wilderness management show how a range of topics in economics, social sciences and ecology are interrelated when decisions have to be made.The third chapter is called "Getting started". It shows how to carry out a complete environmental screening study in one day, much like the computer manuals that get you going from the first day. We believe that raising a platform for environmental decision-making puts issues into their right perspective, it is fun, and it lets an individual contribute to society’s understanding of the environment in a very short while.

In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un­ certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.

1. PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY At the First International Congress of Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo 1982 (FUR-82) it appeared to be a widespread feeling among the participants that the conference signalled something like a paradigm shift in the field. This does not necessarily mean that old truths were discarded and replaced by new ones, but rather that new theories and new empirical evidence were brought forth, compelling old theories to be critically analyzed from new angels. Some of the papers presented at FUR-82 have been published by Reidel in 1983 in a volume edited by Stigum and Wenst0p. The present volume contains com­ mentaries on a number of the papers presented at the conference together with broader outlines of current views on the theory. The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more advanced paradigms or from weaker to more forceful theories. In other words, change is usually progress, even though intermediate stages in a para­ digm shift may be bewildering, to say the least.

This book integrates decision-making and environmental science. For ecologists it will bridge the gap to economics. For practitioners in environmental economics and management it will be a major reference book. It probably contains the largest collection available of expressions and basic equations that are used in environmental sciences. Applying these expressions as "rules-of-thumb" will give participants in a decision-making process a common platform for discussion and arbitration. To make the text comfortable to read, the book is organized in disciplines, but it also includes 13 applications that draw on all subjects in the book, and where cross-references are extensively used. The applications that range from siting of paper mills to wilderness management show how a range of topics in economics, social sciences and ecology are interrelated when decisions have to be made.The third chapter is called "Getting started". It shows how to carry out a complete environmental screening study in one day, much like the computer manuals that get you going from the first day. We believe that raising a platform for environmental decision-making puts issues into their right perspective, it is fun, and it lets an individual contribute to society’s understanding of the environment in a very short while.

In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un­ certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.