Harold Jeffreys - Böcker

Another title in the reissued Oxford Classic Texts in the Physical Sciences series, Jeffrey's Theory of Probability, first published in 1939, was the first to develop a fundamental theory of scientific inference based on the ideas of Bayesian statistics. His ideas were way ahead of their time and it is only in the past ten years that the subject of Bayes' factors has been significantly developed and extended. Until recently the two schools of statistics (Bayesian and Frequentist) were distinctly different and set apart. Recent work (aided by increased computer power and availability) has changed all that and today's graduate students and researchers all require an understanding of Bayesian ideas. This book is their starting point.

This is a digital reprint of the revised 1976 edition of this classic work. It examines seismology, gravity, the strength of the shell, the variation of latitude and the figure of the Moon. The chapter on tidal friction is largely rewritten and what now seem to be the three most reliable estimates of the true secular acceleration of the Moon agree in suggesting that the provisional estimate in the last edition should be considerably increased. The criticism of theories of continental drift, convection and plate tectonics is much expanded. A new appendix pinpoints directions for future geophysical research. The Earth continues to provide a fundamental and comprehensive account of geophysical problems, essential to all scientists concerned with problems of the origin, history and physical constitution of the Earth.

A scientific theory is originally based on a particular set of observations. How can it be extended to apply outside this original range of cases? This question, which is fundamental to natural philosophy, is considered in detail in this book, which was originally published in 1931, and first published as this third edition in 1973. Sir Harold begins with the principle that 'it is possible to learn from experience and to make inferences from beyond the data directly known to sensation'. He goes on to analyse this principle, discuss its status and investigate its logical consequences. The result is a book of importance to anyone interested in the foundations of modern scientific method. His thesis provides a consistent account of how the theories proposed by physicists have been derived from, and are supported by, experimental data.

This well-known text and reference contains an account of those parts of mathematics that are most frequently needed in physics. As a working rule, it includes methods which have applications in at least two branches of physics. The authors have aimed at a high standard of rigour and have not accepted the often-quoted opinion that 'any argument is good enough if it is intended to be used by scientists'. At the same time, they have not attempted to achieve greater generality than is required for the physical applications: this often leads to considerable simplification of the mathematics. Particular attention is also paid to the conditions under which theorems hold. Examples of the practical use of the methods developed are given in the text: these are taken from a wide range of physics, including dynamics, hydrodynamics, elasticity, electromagnetism, heat conduction, wave motion and quantum theory. Exercises accompany each chapter.