J. Alcamo – författare

Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century informs readers of conceivable environmental changes in the next hundred years. Integrated scenarios are used to communicate large amounts of information about different aspects of the global environmental system, together with society's role within this system. Uniquely, the scenarios are generated by an integrated computer model, IMAGE 2.1, which enhances consistency and provides a framework for linking environmental and social aspects of global change.The book is divided into four parts, the volume begins by describing the model used to generate these scenarios, explaining its current features. This is followed by scenarios of changing climate, energy and food use, land cover, acidification, sea level and many other indicators of global change up to 2100. The long term consequences of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are then explored in a section which uses the concepts of 'safe landing' and 'safe emission corridors' to address the connection between the long-term climate protection and short-term emission reductions. The final sections examines how the complicated and crucial issue of how complex global scenario information can be communicated to policy makers.

As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness. Chapters are written by an international group of distinguished scenario experts and provide an excellent starting basis for first-time scenario practitioners, as well as a collection of new ideas on improving scenario practice for experienced scenario analysts.* Comprehensive coverage and overview on environmental scenario analysis from a team of international experts* First book to address key contemporary issues involved with environmental scenario analysis* Gives guidelines for best practicesBenefits:* Excellent starting base for first-time scenario practitioners* Helps the reader to interpret scenarios and to place them into the correct context

As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness. Chapters are written by an international group of distinguished scenario experts and provide an excellent starting basis for first-time scenario practitioners, as well as a collection of new ideas on improving scenario practice for experienced scenario analysts.Comprehensive coverage and overview on environmental scenario analysis from a team of international expertsFirst book to address key contemporary issues involved with environmental scenario analysisGives guidelines for best practices

AND CONCLUSIONS OF THE WARSAW II MEETING ON ATMOSPHERIC COMPUTATIONS TO ASSESS ACIDIFICATION IN EUROPE JOSEPH ALCAMO and JERZY BARTNICKI International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria (Received June 1, 1988; revised June 20, 1988) Abstract. Three topics are discussed in this report: sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of long range transport models, the interface between atmospheric models of different scales, and linkage between atmospheric and ecological models. In separate analyses oflong range transport models, it was found that uncertainty of annual S deposition was mostly affected by uncertainty of wind velocity, mixing height and wet deposition parameterization. Uncertain parameters collectively caused S deposition errors of around 10-25% (coefficient of variation) in the models examined. The effect of interannual meteorological variability on computed annual S deposition was relatively small. Different methods were presented for combining models of regional and interregional scale. It was found to be more important to include interregional information in regional-scale models for annual computations compared to episodic computations. A variety of linkage problems were noted between atmospheric and ecological models. The vertical distribution of pollutants and ''forest fittering'' of pollutant deposition were found to be important in ecological impact calculations but lacking in the output of most interregional atmospheric models.

Only a few laboratories in the world have taken the bold step to attempt the integration of sub-models of the climate system, the global biogeochemical cycles and the human/societal components. This volume reports such a major undertaking and it is an important step towards an integrated approach to global change science. The IMAGE 2 model is important in demonstrating our current ability to model the complex global system.

Three topics are discussed in this report: sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of long range transport models, the interface between atmospheric models of different scales, and linkage between atmospheric and ecological models.