J. Tinbergen – författare

HIS book is not intended as an exhaustive review T of facts. Its aim is rather the presentation of a bio­ logical approach to the phenomena of social behaviour. This type of approach was revived by Lorenz's pioneer studies. It is characterized by emphasis on the need for renewed and careful observation of the huge variety of social phenomena occurring in nature; by emphasis on a balanced study of the three main biological problems­ function, causation, evolution; by emphasis on an appro­ priate sequence of description, qualitative analysis, quanti­ tative analysis; and finally by emphasis on the need for continuous re-synthesis. The character of this approach, combined with the limitations of space, have determined this book's contents. Limits of space led to the omission of a great deal of de scrip­ tion. Thus, Deegener's voluminous work on fhe multitude of types of animal aggregations has not been discussed. Also, the highly specialized 'states' of social insects have not been treated in detail, since there are excellent books dealing exclusively with them.

Advances in computer technology, coupled with the sophistication of econometric modelling, have enabled rapid progress in the formulation and solution of optimal control and filtering programmes, especially in the sphere of macroeconomic policy designing.These developments in systems methodology have prompted the need for an interface between optimal control theory and dynamic macroeconomic analysis. The implications of this convergence have already aroused a great deal of research, but it remains to be seen whether policy makers in most developing countries will consider actually incorporating these techniques into planning. The author argues that control and systems theory can be of immense help in stabilizing those economies plagued by cyclical and structural problems. By demonstrating the applicability of control & filter theory to short-term macroeconomic planning, this book illuminates the impressive array of problems that can thereby be solved, and helps foster a closer working relationship between economists and control theorists. The work deals specifically with the construction of a Kalman filter mechanism, for deriving short-term optimal economic policies under conditions of uncertainty. It specifies and resolves a macroeconometric model which is linked to a unique observation sub-system of a given economy, congruent with the errors in information signalling which are prevalent within the data base context of most developing countries. An evaluation of control settings contrasts short and long-term economic policies. This indicates that an economy may `overheat'' under protracted settings of instrument values around their optimal levels if the constraints on the system, in the form of external shocks, are too great to allow reaching all targets simultaneously using feasible instrument paths.

The reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) which is now being implemented, reduces the support for a selected number of agricultural products. This book uses welfare theory and applied general equilibrium analysis to assess the medium to long term consequences of this reform, if the new policies remain in place until the beginning of the next century. It analyses the implications of two alternative scenarios: a) a further trade liberalisation covering all commodities; and b) increased protectionism with high prices, constraints on production and export subsidies (financed by the farmers themselves). The study also investigates the implications of financial renationalisation, whereby the European Union member-states would cover the costs of their own support measures.

This book presents an empirically estimated applied general equilibrium model for India and the analysis of a wide range of policy issues carried out using the model. The various chapters in the book deal with public distribution policies, foreign trade and aid policies, rural works programmes, terms of trade policies, fertilizer subsidy policies and irrigation development policies. These policies are analysed in terms of their immediate and medium term effects on production, consumption and prices of different commodities, on the growth of the economy as well as on the distribution of income among different groups in rural and urban areas and the incidence of poverty in the economy. Each chapter dealing with policy analysis describes the analytical issues involved, the historical context and experience of the policy concerned, results of the model scenarios and the policy insights that emerge.