Jeff Grover – författare

Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Solve Complex Problems is a quick primer on the topic that introduces readers to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time. This brief is meant for non-statisticians who are unfamiliar with Bayes’ theorem, walking them through the theoretical phases of set and sample set selection, the axioms of probability, probability theory as it pertains to Bayes’ theorem, and posterior probabilities. All of these concepts are explained as they appear in the methodology of fitting a Bayes’ model, and upon completion of the text readers will be able to mathematically determine posterior probabilities of multiple independent nodes across any system available for study.  Very little has been published in the area of discrete Bayes’ theory, and this brief will appeal to non-statisticians conducting research in the fields of engineering, computing, life sciences, and social sciences.    

This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, and 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for inexperienced learners as well as professionals, while maintaining a proof-based academic rigor.

The author''s first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theorem and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem—as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes.It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as the basis for the first book, and includes fifty 2-, 3-, and 4-event BBN of numerous variants.