Joel B. Smith – författare

Martin Parry University College, London, UK The 13 country studies collected in this re­ Adaptations Assessment published by the port represent the first of what is likely to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change become a worldwide, country-by-country (Carter et al., 1994) as an agreed technical estimate of the likely impacts of, and appro­ set of scientific methods for climate impact priate adaptations to, greenhouse-gas-in­ assessment and has written its own guidance duced global climate change. document, Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (U.S. CSP, 1994). Under the U.N. Framework Convention on The u.S. Country Studies Program devel­ Climate Change (UNFCCC), signatories oped the Guidance and other reviews of agreed to two near-term actions and one ma­ methodology into a nonspecialist set of jor subsequent one. The two near-term ac­ workbooks for use at the country level, tions are to make annual estimates of the which, backed up by advice from experi­ emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases, enced scientists from the United States and which are now being reported as part of a other countries, enabled local scientists to country-by-country inventory developed by conduct their own vulnerability and adapta­ the U.N. Environment Programme, the Or­ tion assessments.

PREFACE ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi L. AMADORE, W. C. BOLHOFER, R. V. CRUZ, R. B. FEIR, C. A. FREYSINGER, S. GUILL, K. F. JALAL, A IGLESIAS, A. JOSE, S. LEATHERMAN, S. LENHART, S. MUKHER­ JEE, J. B. SMITH, and J. WISNIEWSKII Climate Change Vulnerability and Adap­ tion in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop Summary 1-12 A. IGLESIAS, LlN ERDA, and C. ROSENZWEIG I Climate Change in Asia: A Review of the Vulnerability and Adaption of Crop Production 13-27 I. AMIEN, P. REJEKININGRUM, A. PRAMUDIA, and E. SUSANTII Effects of Interannual Climate Variability and Climate Change on Rice Yield in Java, Indonesia 29-39 R. D. BUAN, AR. MAGLlNAO, P. P. EVANGELISTA, and B. G. PAJUELAS I Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines 41-51 Z. KARIM, S. G. HUSSAIN, and M. AHMED I Assessing Impacts of Climatic Variations on Foodgrain Production in Bangladesh 53-62 LlN ERDA I Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation to Global Warming in China 63-73 WANG JINGHUA and LlN ERDA I The Impacts of Potential Climate Change and Climate Variability on Simulated Maize Production in China 75-85 M. A. WIJERATNE I Vulnerability of Sri Lanka Tea Production to Global Climate Change 87-94 B. BOLORTSETSEG and G. TUVAANSUREN I The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pasture and Cattle Production in Mongolia 95-105 K. BOONPRAGOB and J. SANTISIRISOMBOON I Modeling Potential Changes of Forest Area in Thailand under Climate Change 107-117 K. 1. KOBAK, I. YE. TURCHINOVICH, N. YU. KONDRASHEVA, E. -D. SCHULZE, W.

Overall, the negative health impacts of global climate change are anticipated to significantly outweigh positive impacts. Furthermore, global climate change will continue for decades, even after the effective implementation of mitigation measures. By exploring cases in public health and prior lessons learned, this valuable title identifies the key

Global climate change is one of the most important environmental issues facing the world today. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) acknowledges the potential for global climate change to have major effects on the world economy. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli­ mate Change (lPCC) is focused on evaluating the scientific data on climate change and analyzing the potential responses to it. One of the primary issues in the global climate change debate is how to adapt to any change that might occur. The process ofidentifying adaptation measures and evaluating their effectiveness is the focus of this book. In dealing with climate change adaptation, the sequence of events in conduct­ ing these types of analyses can be generalized as follows: • Develop scenarios for the possible range of climate change, • Assess the vulnerability of various sectors of the national economy and infrastructure to climate change, and • Identify and evaluate measures in each sector to adapt to the climate change It is this third step that is the subject of this book. In presenting this material, Chapter 1 gives an overview of the concept of climate change adaptation and the general principles guiding the conduct of analyses in this area. Chapters 2-7 give the results of evaluating climate change adaptation options in the agriculture, water resources, coastal resources, forest and ecosystems, fisheries, and human settlements sectors.

Global climate change is one of the most important environmental issues facing the world today. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) acknowledges the potential for global climate change to have major effects on the world economy. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli­ mate Change (lPCC) is focused on evaluating the scientific data on climate change and analyzing the potential responses to it. One of the primary issues in the global climate change debate is how to adapt to any change that might occur. The process ofidentifying adaptation measures and evaluating their effectiveness is the focus of this book. In dealing with climate change adaptation, the sequence of events in conduct­ ing these types of analyses can be generalized as follows: • Develop scenarios for the possible range of climate change, • Assess the vulnerability of various sectors of the national economy and infrastructure to climate change, and • Identify and evaluate measures in each sector to adapt to the climate change It is this third step that is the subject of this book. In presenting this material, Chapter 1 gives an overview of the concept of climate change adaptation and the general principles guiding the conduct of analyses in this area. Chapters 2-7 give the results of evaluating climate change adaptation options in the agriculture, water resources, coastal resources, forest and ecosystems, fisheries, and human settlements sectors.

Overall, the negative health impacts of global climate change are anticipated to significantly outweigh positive impacts. Furthermore, global climate change will continue for decades, even after the effective implementation of mitigation measures. By exploring cases in public health and prior lessons learned, this valuable title identifies the key

Climate scientists have determined that recent global temperature increases are due in large part to increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Even if mitigation of these gases begins immediately, there is every reason to believe that climate change will continue to occur. Every region in the world ought to forecast, as the contributors do in this study of California (a region of broad variation and high population), how it will be affected by climate change and how it might best adapt. Models are used to estimate potential physical and biological impacts, efficient adaptations, and residual damages from climate change. The contributors cover a broad array of climate change impacts on affected market sectors (including water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, timber, and energy demand) as well as ecosystems and biodiversity. An integrated hydrologic-agriculture model is developed to explore how the region would adapt to changes in water flows. Interactions between climate impacts and population and economic growth, urbanization, and technological change are also explored. For example, the study examines how both climate change and projected land development affect the region's terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.The level of geographical detail, along with the broad applicability of the modeling, methodology, and conclusions, make this a unique and valuable reference for environmental economists, scientists, planners, and policymakers.

Martin Parry University College, London, UK The 13 country studies collected in this re­ Adaptations Assessment published by the port represent the first of what is likely to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change become a worldwide, country-by-country (Carter et al., 1994) as an agreed technical estimate of the likely impacts of, and appro­ set of scientific methods for climate impact priate adaptations to, greenhouse-gas-in­ assessment and has written its own guidance duced global climate change. document, Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (U.S. CSP, 1994). Under the U.N. Framework Convention on The u.S. Country Studies Program devel­ Climate Change (UNFCCC), signatories oped the Guidance and other reviews of agreed to two near-term actions and one ma­ methodology into a nonspecialist set of jor subsequent one. The two near-term ac­ workbooks for use at the country level, tions are to make annual estimates of the which, backed up by advice from experi­ emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases, enced scientists from the United States and which are now being reported as part of a other countries, enabled local scientists to country-by-country inventory developed by conduct their own vulnerability and adapta­ the U.N. Environment Programme, the Or­ tion assessments.

PREFACE ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi L. AMADORE, W. C. BOLHOFER, R. V. CRUZ, R. B. FEIR, C. A. FREYSINGER, S. GUILL, K. F. JALAL, A IGLESIAS, A. JOSE, S. LEATHERMAN, S. LENHART, S. MUKHER­ JEE, J. B. SMITH, and J. WISNIEWSKII Climate Change Vulnerability and Adap­ tion in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop Summary 1-12 A. IGLESIAS, LlN ERDA, and C. ROSENZWEIG I Climate Change in Asia: A Review of the Vulnerability and Adaption of Crop Production 13-27 I. AMIEN, P. REJEKININGRUM, A. PRAMUDIA, and E. SUSANTII Effects of Interannual Climate Variability and Climate Change on Rice Yield in Java, Indonesia 29-39 R. D. BUAN, AR. MAGLlNAO, P. P. EVANGELISTA, and B. G. PAJUELAS I Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines 41-51 Z. KARIM, S. G. HUSSAIN, and M. AHMED I Assessing Impacts of Climatic Variations on Foodgrain Production in Bangladesh 53-62 LlN ERDA I Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation to Global Warming in China 63-73 WANG JINGHUA and LlN ERDA I The Impacts of Potential Climate Change and Climate Variability on Simulated Maize Production in China 75-85 M. A. WIJERATNE I Vulnerability of Sri Lanka Tea Production to Global Climate Change 87-94 B. BOLORTSETSEG and G. TUVAANSUREN I The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pasture and Cattle Production in Mongolia 95-105 K. BOONPRAGOB and J. SANTISIRISOMBOON I Modeling Potential Changes of Forest Area in Thailand under Climate Change 107-117 K. 1. KOBAK, I. YE. TURCHINOVICH, N. YU. KONDRASHEVA, E. -D. SCHULZE, W.

Overall, the negative health impacts of global climate change are anticipated to significantly outweigh positive impacts. Furthermore, global climate change will continue for decades, even after the effective implementation of mitigation measures. By exploring cases in public health and prior lessons learned, this valuable title identifies the key adjustments necessary for public health systems to effectively adapt to this inevitable climate change.Touching on broader aspects of integrated assessment and environmental studies as well as climatic alterations and public health, this book is an essential resource for those involved in these fields at all levels.

PREFACE ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi L. AMADORE, W. C. BOLHOFER, R. V. CRUZ, R. B. FEIR, C. A. FREYSINGER, S. GUILL, K. F. JALAL, A IGLESIAS, A. JOSE, S. LEATHERMAN, S. LENHART, S. MUKHER­ JEE, J. B. SMITH, and J. WISNIEWSKII Climate Change Vulnerability and Adap­ tion in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop Summary 1-12 A. IGLESIAS, LlN ERDA, and C. ROSENZWEIG I Climate Change in Asia: A Review of the Vulnerability and Adaption of Crop Production 13-27 I. AMIEN, P. REJEKININGRUM, A. PRAMUDIA, and E. SUSANTII Effects of Interannual Climate Variability and Climate Change on Rice Yield in Java, Indonesia 29-39 R. D. BUAN, AR. MAGLlNAO, P. P. EVANGELISTA, and B. G. PAJUELAS I Vulnerability of Rice and Corn to Climate Change in the Philippines 41-51 Z. KARIM, S. G. HUSSAIN, and M. AHMED I Assessing Impacts of Climatic Variations on Foodgrain Production in Bangladesh 53-62 LlN ERDA I Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation to Global Warming in China 63-73 WANG JINGHUA and LlN ERDA I The Impacts of Potential Climate Change and Climate Variability on Simulated Maize Production in China 75-85 M. A. WIJERATNE I Vulnerability of Sri Lanka Tea Production to Global Climate Change 87-94 B. BOLORTSETSEG and G. TUVAANSUREN I The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pasture and Cattle Production in Mongolia 95-105 K. BOONPRAGOB and J. SANTISIRISOMBOON I Modeling Potential Changes of Forest Area in Thailand under Climate Change 107-117 K. 1. KOBAK, I. YE. TURCHINOVICH, N. YU. KONDRASHEVA, E. -D. SCHULZE, W.

Martin Parry University College, London, UK The 13 country studies collected in this re­ Adaptations Assessment published by the port represent the first of what is likely to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change become a worldwide, country-by-country (Carter et al., 1994) as an agreed technical estimate of the likely impacts of, and appro­ set of scientific methods for climate impact priate adaptations to, greenhouse-gas-in­ assessment and has written its own guidance duced global climate change. document, Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (U.S. CSP, 1994). Under the U.N. Framework Convention on The u.S. Country Studies Program devel­ Climate Change (UNFCCC), signatories oped the Guidance and other reviews of agreed to two near-term actions and one ma­ methodology into a nonspecialist set of jor subsequent one. The two near-term ac­ workbooks for use at the country level, tions are to make annual estimates of the which, backed up by advice from experi­ emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases, enced scientists from the United States and which are now being reported as part of a other countries, enabled local scientists to country-by-country inventory developed by conduct their own vulnerability and adapta­ the U.N. Environment Programme, the Or­ tion assessments.