Jonathan Haughton – författare

Among the most important questions that businesses ask are some very simple ones: If I decide to do something, will it work? And if so, how large are the effects? To answer these predictive questions, and later base decisions on them, we need to establish causal relationships.

Establishing and measuring causality can be difficult. This book explains the most useful techniques for discerning causality and illustrates the principles with numerous examples from business. It discusses randomized experiments (aka A/B testing) and techniques such as propensity score matching, synthetic controls, double differences, and instrumental variables. There is a chapter on the powerful AI approach of Directed Acyclic Graphs (aka Bayesian Networks), another on structural equation models, and one on time-series techniques, including Granger causality.

At the heart of the book are four chapters on uplift modeling, where the goal is to help firms determine how best to deploy their resources for marketing or other interventions. We start by modeling uplift, discuss the test-and-learn process, and provide an overview of the prescriptive analytics of uplift.

The book is written in an accessible style and will be of interest to data analysts and strategists in business, to students and instructors of business and analytics who have a solid foundation in statistics, and to data scientists who recognize the need to take seriously the need for causality as an essential input into effective decision-making.

The purpose of this book is to introduce, discuss, illustrate, and evaluate the colorful palette of analytical techniques that can be applied to the analysis of household survey data, with an emphasis on the innovations of the past decade or so.

Most of the chapters begin by introducing a methodological or policy problem, to motivate the subsequent discussion of relevant methods.  They then summarize the relevant techniques, and draw on examples – many of them from the authors’ own work – and aim to convey a sense of the potential, but also the strengths and weaknesses, of those techniques. 

This book is meant for graduate students in statistics, economics, policy analysis, and social sciences, especially, but certainly not exclusively, those interested in the challenges of economic development in the Third World.  Additionally, the book will be useful to academics and practitioners who work closely with survey data. This is a book that can serve as a reference work, to be taken down from the shelf and perused from time to time.