Lawrence D. Phillips – författare

Individuals and groups often find themselves in problematic situations not knowing what to do next. They may experience a sense of unease that things aren't quite right, with no clear path to a better future. This book shows how decision analysis and the social skills of the decision analyst can enable us to explore the future before having to live it. The author is a senior decision analyst sharing his lived experience with many clients in numerous private, public, and voluntary organisations. The book sets out a five-step process to choose, define, and assemble the ten key ingredients of any problem into one model. Changes to the ingredients representing possible futures provide new glimpses into the future, stimulate creativity and lead to new solutions. Readers will gain a sound theoretical foundation with an understanding of process consultancy skills and the types of problems for which decision analysis is appropriate.

Individuals and groups often find themselves in problematic situations not knowing what to do next. They may experience a sense of unease that things aren't quite right, with no clear path to a better future. This book shows how decision analysis and the social skills of the decision analyst can enable us to explore the future before having to live it. The author is a senior decision analyst sharing his lived experience with many clients in numerous private, public, and voluntary organisations. The book sets out a five-step process to choose, define, and assemble the ten key ingredients of any problem into one model. Changes to the ingredients representing possible futures provide new glimpses into the future, stimulate creativity and lead to new solutions. Readers will gain a sound theoretical foundation with an understanding of process consultancy skills and the types of problems for which decision analysis is appropriate.

This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.