Michael F. Oppenheimer – författare

Michael Oppenheimer''s Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America''s leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President''s Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

Michael Oppenheimer''s Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America''s leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President''s Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

This book explores the impact of Japanese and European nontariff barriers (NTBs) on the international marketing, investment, and technology strategies of small- to medium-sized high-technology U.S. firms. The study documents a pronounced dichotomy between strategies of small and large companies that, to a significant extent, reflects the gap in the resources, bargaining power, and familiarity with foreign markets of these two groups. Conclusions concerning the efficacy of corporate strategies adopted are supported by an analysis of over 20 case studies. These strategies range from licensing agreements with local firms to use of a trading company or local distributor, formation of a joint venture with a local firm, and establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary in the foreign market.

This book explores the impact of Japanese and European nontariff barriers (NTBs) on the international marketing, investment, and technology strategies of small- to medium-sized high-technology U.S. firms. .

First published in 1986, the research for this book was originally undertaken by the authors at The Futures Group for the Office of Technology Assessment. This study assesses technology trade from the perspective of the competing supplier countries. This group was defined to include the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. Six Middle Eastern countries were selected for detailed review: Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

This book assesses the politics and programs of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and their relevance to U.S. trade policy. Focusing on the direct loan program for large credits with maturities of more than five years, the authors evaluate the broad criteria employed by the Bank in its decision-making process and the resulting allocation of Bank resources. They also examine the distribution of Bank loans and subsidies across industries and relate this to key industry characteristics such as comparative advantage and export dependence. The problems faced by the Eximbank in recent years—high borrowing costs, intensified export credit competition, limited resources, increased risks, conflicting mandates to be competitive yet self-sustaining -—have given tremendous importance to the careful articulation of policy and administration of programs. The authors find Bank policies to be broadly supportive of the U.S. trade policy goals, but also identify several areas of inconsistency and lack of definition and offer alternative means of specifying criteria to overcome these problems.

First published in 1986, the research for this book was originally undertaken by the authors at The Futures Group for the Office of Technology Assessment. This study assesses technology trade from the perspective of the competing supplier countries. This group was defined to include the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. Six Middle Eastern countries were selected for detailed review: Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

This book assesses the politics and programs of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and their relevance to U.S. trade policy. Focusing on the direct loan program for large credits with maturities of more than five years, the authors evaluate the broad criteria employed by the Bank in its decision-making process and the resulting allocation of Bank resources. They also examine the distribution of Bank loans and subsidies across industries and relate this to key industry characteristics such as comparative advantage and export dependence. The problems faced by the Eximbank in recent years—high borrowing costs, intensified export credit competition, limited resources, increased risks, conflicting mandates to be competitive yet self-sustaining -—have given tremendous importance to the careful articulation of policy and administration of programs. The authors find Bank policies to be broadly supportive of the U.S. trade policy goals, but also identify several areas of inconsistency and lack of definition and offer alternative means of specifying criteria to overcome these problems.

This book explores the impact of Japanese and European nontariff barriers (NTBs) on the international marketing, investment, and technology strategies of small- to medium-sized high-technology U.S. firms. The study documents a pronounced dichotomy between strategies of small and large companies that, to a significant extent, reflects the gap in the resources, bargaining power, and familiarity with foreign markets of these two groups. Conclusions concerning the efficacy of corporate strategies adopted are supported by an analysis of over 20 case studies. These strategies range from licensing agreements with local firms to use of a trading company or local distributor, formation of a joint venture with a local firm, and establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary in the foreign market.

This book explores the impact of Japanese and European nontariff barriers (NTBs) on the international marketing, investment, and technology strategies of small- to medium-sized high-technology U.S. firms. The study documents a pronounced dichotomy between strategies of small and large companies that, to a significant extent, reflects the gap in the resources, bargaining power, and familiarity with foreign markets of these two groups. Conclusions concerning the efficacy of corporate strategies adopted are supported by an analysis of over 20 case studies. These strategies range from licensing agreements with local firms to use of a trading company or local distributor, formation of a joint venture with a local firm, and establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary in the foreign market.

This book assesses the politics and programs of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and their relevance to U.S. trade policy. Focusing on the direct loan program for large credits with maturities of more than five years, the authors evaluate the broad criteria employed by the Bank in its decision-making process and the resulting allocation of Bank resources. They also examine the distribution of Bank loans and subsidies across industries and relate this to key industry characteristics such as comparative advantage and export dependence. The problems faced by the Eximbank in recent years—high borrowing costs, intensified export credit competition, limited resources, increased risks, conflicting mandates to be competitive yet self-sustaining -—have given tremendous importance to the careful articulation of policy and administration of programs. The authors find Bank policies to be broadly supportive of the U.S. trade policy goals, but also identify several areas of inconsistency and lack of definition and offer alternative means of specifying criteria to overcome these problems.

This book assesses the politics and programs of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and their relevance to U.S. trade policy. Focusing on the direct loan program for large credits with maturities of more than five years, the authors evaluate the broad criteria employed by the Bank in its decision-making process and the resulting allocation of Bank resources. They also examine the distribution of Bank loans and subsidies across industries and relate this to key industry characteristics such as comparative advantage and export dependence. The problems faced by the Eximbank in recent years—high borrowing costs, intensified export credit competition, limited resources, increased risks, conflicting mandates to be competitive yet self-sustaining -—have given tremendous importance to the careful articulation of policy and administration of programs. The authors find Bank policies to be broadly supportive of the U.S. trade policy goals, but also identify several areas of inconsistency and lack of definition and offer alternative means of specifying criteria to overcome these problems.