Michael P. Niemira – författare

Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability.No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting toolRegional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicatorsInternational business cycles—with an international business cycle chronologyInflation cycles—plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycleFinancial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cyclesStock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined tradingBased on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate."Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn."—Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc."The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle."—Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal"Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere."—Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso"This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy."—Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago

Practical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists provides the tools, the theory, and the empirical understanding of macroeconomics without the heavy lifting of the mathematical and econometric models. This accessible book introduces the building blocks of macroeconomic thinking and challenges the reader to apply these insights to learn why economists say what they do and what guides economic policymakers. Linking actual data to theoretical concepts, it explores competing economic theories, and uncovers some of the key controversies in macroeconomic theory and how different perspectives lead to alternative and vastly different policy recommendations. Key features include:Coverage of all the key macroeconomic topics, such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, output and productivity, business cycles, aggregate demand/supply, and fiscal and monetary policyQuestion-and-answer format, covering the foundations of each topic in a logical progression, to provide the reader with a quick reference and more focused discussion"Advanced questions" to encourage deeper discussionStart-of-chapter learning objectives, which allow the reader to "see" the road ahead for each sectionEnd-of-chapter "Issues to think about" boxed features, which offer the reader an opportunity to apply critical thinking to the issues coveredResource manual and PowerPoints for instructorsPractical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists is the ideal textbook for anyone looking for a practical and non-technical introduction to the subject.