Michael R. Murray – författare

This monograph presents the results of an attempt to examine the nature of the demand for insurance against natural disasters at a detailed, microeconomic level. The subject is homeowners' multiperil insurance used to cover owner-occupied residential property. The analysis seeks to identify factors that affect the consumer demand for coverage using a model that properly reflects the interacting supply and demand factors. The authors examine key variables and their effects on the quantity, quality, and price of insurance purchased. They consider the sensitivity of demand to prices, demographic characteristics, policy features, and the bundling/unbundling of perils and coverages. They examine insurer and consumer decisions in different markets and regulatory environments - Florida and New York - over a four-year period 1995-1998.

1. THE PROBLEM OF CATASTROPHE RISK The risk of large losses from natural disasters in the U.S. has significantly increased in recent years, straining private insurance markets and creating troublesome problems for disaster-prone areas. The threat of mega-catastrophes resulting from intense hurricanes or earthquakes striking major population centers has dramatically altered the insurance environment. Estimates of probable maximum losses (PMLs) to insurers from a mega­ catastrophe striking the U.S. range up to $100 billion depending on the location and intensity of the event (Applied Insurance Research, 2001).1 A severe disaster could have a significant financial impact on the industry (Cummins, Doherty, and Lo, 2002; Insurance Services Office, 1996a). Estimates of industry gross losses from the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 range from $30 billion to $50 billion, and the attack''s effect on insurance markets underscores the need to understand the dynamics of the supply of and the demand for insurance against extreme events, including natural disasters. Increased catastrophe risk poses difficult challenges for insurers, reinsurers, property owners and public officials (Kleindorfer and Kunreuther, 1999). The fundamental dilemma concerns insurers'' ability to handle low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events, which generates a host of interrelated issues with respect to how the risk of such events are 1 These probable maximum loss (PML) estimates are based on a SOD-year "return" period.